Sunday, September 1, 2013

September 5 Major CIT

Saturday, August 24 (the end of the Jackson Hole meeting) was highlighted as a CIT here. The markets made a short term peak (and Nasdaq double top) on the following Monday. Markets are now showing oversold so we should get a reversal back up soon.

This looks likely to occur on September 5 when Jupiter crosses the Nasdaq's 72° harmonic, opposing Pluto and square Uranus, also discussed here. There is also an Earth-Mars-Saturn trine and a New Moon.
9/5/2013: Nasdaq Heliocentric Jupiter 72° Cycle

The rally following this reversal should at least fill the SPX and VIX gaps, potentially creating the right shoulder of a H&S and the final (3rd) peak for 2013, although it is possible that it continues higher to new highs.

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Gold and silver peaked on August 28, 2 days after the August 26 Neptune-Earth conjunction and geocentric Uranus-Venus opposition mentioned here. This was also 4 days after a gold geocentric Neptune 36° cycle, which can be off by several days.

There is a gold heliocentric Neptune 36° cycle on September 9 which looks likely to be another major high. Since Neptune is so far away the date is probably not accurate and we can look to the closer planets, in this case Ceres, to give a better estimate. There is a cluster of events involving Ceres occurring September 5-7, coinciding with the Nasdaq reversal mentioned above.

September 5 is a geocentric Neptune-Ceres opposition. Anything involving Neptune or Ceres is very important to the metals, so this combination magnifies the significance of this CIT.
9/5/2013: Geocentric Neptune-Ceres Opposition and Silver Harmonics
September 6 is a gold geocentric Ceres 72° cycle.
September 7 is a silver geocentric Ceres 36° cycle.

57 comments:

  1. Please also read Chris' analysis in the past few posts which is very important.

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  2. Hi Ms. Platy,

    So before/on Sept 5 we will reach on spx 500 a bottom and we will start a reversal to higher levels closing the gaps left at higher levels?

    When this up move might conclude? Rephasing: how much time might it take? 2-3 days 1-2 weeks?

    thank you,

    Paul

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    1. Hi Paul, Chris is zeroing in on September 18-23 for the next major CIT. If we do get a low around the 5th, I think the 18th-23rd is a good possibility for the next high. Pluto turns direct on the 20th as Chris mentions along with other important indicators. Also there is a Saturn-N Node-Venus triple conjunction on Sept 17-18 and a DOW Uranus 18° cycle on the 18th.

      Please see Chris' analysis here.

      Also German elections are Sept 22. And I think tapering is supposed to begin this month... is there a date for this?

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    2. Although there is a reversal happening... It is my opinion that it might not last and prices will surprise to the downside as my main trend is still down. I would not go long or trade on the long side till the main trend enters a bullish trigger. If my short term enters a overbought reading by the Turn-date and my main trend is still on the downside, then I will take this to mean we will get an acceleration down.

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    3. Platy,

      I think that the cycles are inverted and today/tomorrow we will get a high, not a low.
      The low will be in the 17/20 sept. 2013.

      The market tells me that, it's just a direct observation.

      Paul

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    4. Also as you may know, the jews have today Rosh Hashanah... I bet today/tomorrow will be a high not a low.
      It's also not logical to be a low today/tomorrow and a high right in front of FED's QE taper decision. Usually the markets by futures anticipate and price is all kind of stuff.
      The taper is not priced in, at all.
      Nor the syrian problem.

      Take care,

      Paul

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    5. Agree Paul - cycles inverted!

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  3. Here's my analysis for the EMini. It is truly amazing how GANN's analysis all ties together.
    I apologize for the lengthy analysis.
    I will attempt to unravel the movements of the EMini since the low on 11/16/12.
    To simplify the dates of the highs and lows I have assigned them as follows:
    L-11/16/12 = 1;
    H-12/18/12 = 2;
    L-12/28/12 = 3;
    H-2/20/13 = 4;
    L-2/25/13 = 5;
    H- 4/11/13 = 6;
    L-4/18/13 = 7;
    H-5/22/13 = 8;
    L-6/24/13 = 9;
    H-8/2/13 = 10.
    Numbers 1 and 5 were 6 and 5 points below the eastern cardinal on the square of nine. Numbers 3, 4, 7 and 8 all clustered around the south western diagonal. Numbers 2 and 6 clustered close to the northern cardinal and 9 was near the north western cardinal. Lastly, 10 was 5 points above the western cardinal.
    The Sun's position for number 2 was 265, or 1 day after the 0 degrees(eastern cardinal) on the C24. Number 3 landed on the western cardinal, number 4 landed on the southern cardinal, number 5 was 0 degrees, 8 was the western cardinal and 9 was 1 day after the southern cardinal.
    On 8/30, the Sun was at the eastern cardinal.
    The price of the low on 6/24 was 1553. Looking at the hexagonal chart, Saturn was at 214 degrees. 225 degrees from Saturn gave a price of 1549. But 1553 sat on the northern cardinal with the Sun and Jupiter straddling 1553.
    In my view the next low is in place at 1624 because Pluto square, Uranus opposition and Mars square have all converged at 1624. Moreover, the 1624 low on 8/28 landed on a 3/4 moon, which is generally considered to be bullish.
    The next CIT should be 9/20. The right hand shoulder might potentially fall between the prices of 1653 and 1689. On 9/20 Saturn and the North Node will both be at 217 degrees. 135 degrees away gives a price of 1653, 180 is 1671, 225 is 1689 and 1656 sits on the eastern cardinal.
    Turning to the planetary aspects for 9/20, Neptune trine will be at 1653, the Node conjuct will be at 1658 and Pluto sextile is at 1660. Mars trine will be at 1669, Neptune square is 1683 and Uranus trine and Mars conjunct (inverse) cross at 1690.
    Mars aspects, along with Mars inverse turns the EMini. For what it is worth, I think the high will be close to 1686 for the following reasons.
    • 1690 is the Uranus trine/Mars conjunct (inverse) cross;
    • 1683 is Neptune square
    • 1686 is 6 squares above the 6/4/12 low of 1230 (continuous chart);
    • the average of the 5 outer planets sits on 1682
    • 1689 is on 225 degrees of Saturn
    • 1683 will add to the cluster of numbers 3, 4, 7 and 8 above
    • 1680 sits on 0 degrees of the C24.
    Just my thoughts!!

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    1. Thanks a lot Chris, you really should start your own blog! :)

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    2. My sentiments exactly... Great work Chris..

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  4. The Aug 28 top in gold at $1434 did not quite hit the "expected" 1450-1460 target. This target is based on trendlines of the current up channel projected from the Jun 20th (top end) and 28th (bottom end) lows.

    It also coincides with the net price increase measured from Jun 28th low to Jul 23rd top, if viewing the activity from Jul 24 to Aug 7 as a bull flag consolidation and thus to be considered the "half way" point to the anticipated 1460 target. I.e. 1177 (Jun28) to 1351 (Jul23) = +174. Aug7 1285 (half way point) + 174 = 1459.

    Many pro analysts have already called out Aug 28 as the near term top in gold because it bounced hard and the higher price was unconfirmed by declining HUI/GDX prices two days prior. But I speculate they are somewhat premature and this last mini surge to the 1450's could coincide quite quickly by the Sep 6th or 9th date outlined. As with earlier extremes the final price movement likely occurs in an overnight spike up session so GLD likely does not exceed 140 during market hours.

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  5. Since we have a reactionary date coming up this early September, I would like to share my thoughts on why I think we could accelerate lower rather than turn up in the markets. If our reactionary date does turn up to the upside though... I do not think we would be going up to new highs. In fact I see just the opposite, a short term pop and then drop... The majority of the people here might know the basics in EW principles but one thing that has to be considered here are the patterns that have been forming from the Aug 28 lows.. and that is, its in a corrective movement.

    http://tfaat.blogspot.ca/2013/09/are-we-there-yet.html

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  6. The NASDAQ 100 has been stronger than the S&P 500 and DJIA. Based on the NASDAQ 100's trend, it looks more likely that we will see a top this week rather than a low. We are also likely to see a top in gold and silver and a low in bonds.

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    1. Yes looks like a high for equities tomorrow but a low for gold/silver. I think we'll see a double top in metals ~Monday.

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    2. I have posted an analysis of London Gold on my blog that describes why logarithmic spirals are suggesting a top soon.

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    3. Jay,

      How does your interpretation of a likely top this week rather than a low fit within the context of your Gann angle time/price projection of S&P 1764 top September 22-23?

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    4. It is looking less and less likely that S&P will hit 1764 by Sep 22-23.

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    5. I think you're 200pts in the wrong direction.
      --

      The next 8 trading days into the FOMC of Sept'18..going to be..interesting.

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  7. Platy, so you are looking for the 9th as a top in gold now?

    Gold stocks appear to be holding up extremely well given the whack in gold.

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    1. Yeah but the 9th is a Neptune cycle so it can be off by up to 5 days from what I've seen.

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    2. We just broke small double tops in both GLD and SLV ETFs. This is usually an initial sign of more selling to come.

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    3. Yeah we have a down trending channel now. If they stay in this channel the Neptune cycle could be giving a low.

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  8. I have posted an analysis of the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV).

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  9. Hmmmm, has the new moon marked another low in gold? This move off the bottom looks impulsive?

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    1. Yes short term but this is the 3rd bump for metals so when this 3rd bump tops out we should see a strong decline.

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  10. If anyone out there clicks on the blog "Share Market Trading Opinions" to the right of this page and gets a popup to upgrade their FLV Player DO NOT click upgrade. It took me 4 hours to uninstall the range of programs it installed and executed and to reset all my settings. IT IS A SCAM - YOU ARE WARNED.

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    1. Wow thanks for the warning, deleting that link so it won't happen to anyone else!

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  11. Looks like Cowan's 2013 market top call is a miss.

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    1. I think too many readers here are too fixated on precise timing. Cowan's analysis is long-term and major tops are often a long drawn out distribution process rather than an inverted "V" formation. When the top is eventually confirmed, I wouldn't be surprised if May 22 top signaled that the bull market was over. The August 2nd high was a marginal high but in the grand scheme I would argue that it is irrelevant.

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    2. Thank you for your response.

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    3. Jay,

      I concur with your thoughts.

      However, I think many readers here are still fixated on precise timing due to the immensely accurate precise timing with your previous DJIA chart that held strong for 1.5 years.

      It's forecast clearly represented an inverted "V" formation post May 5, 2013:

      May 5, 2013: +/- 2 weeks was supposed to be the final judgement call for U.S equities that didn't pan out.

      I postulated in your blog that the dates you are nailing seem to represent "major" turn dates within the topping process of this equities cyclical topping process.


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    4. The +/- 2 weeks band was based on recent history - not some mathematically precise calculation. The model as I have said often is very crude and it is a wonder that it even works. The 22nd May top in the Dow came within 3 days of the suggested time band and that level was exceeded in early August by just 0.75%. Whether we will see higher highs remain to be seen. However, wouldn't you agree that the crude model whose 2nd May forecast date was primarily influenced by a single 84-year Uranus cycle has been remarkably accurate so far?

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    5. Absolutely. The May 22nd top was so remarkably close on the mark of the projected cycle top date it is quite scary. It may not have panned out to be an inverted "V" off of that date, but it did very likely nail the date marking the beginning of the end of this bull market. May 22nd sure looks like the peak of the left shoulder in a textbook H&S formation setting up on the Dow.

      I believe the projected 2013 bottom date was September 20. Now it appears that date will be the peak of a right shoulder. If that pans out, then the forecasted 2013 peak and trough dates actually nailed two peak dates of the left and right shoulders that encapsulated the entire topping process time band. The question then would be what implications does that have on the rest of the model once we get confirmation of a final top.

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    6. Thanks, Neo. I have not updated the model in a while and clearly there is value in doing it. I wanted to export the data from R to Microsoft Excel and redraw them because the R charts are hard to read. I will see if I can do that this weekend and post them.

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    7. That would be fantastic Jay. I'm looking forward to it, and thanks for all your work!

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    8. I have posted an updated analysis of the DJIA using the Seasonal Chain Relative model on my blog.

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  12. Further to my post on August 22, I have uplifted a current chart for the EMini. In my view the EMini should hit 1683-1688 between September 17-September 20.

    The vertical red line is September 20. Notice the intersecting black dashed lines cross on September 20 at 1688. The descending red lines are resistance levels. The second highest stopped the rally in early August. It likewise passes through 1688.

    See the chart at:

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/97307769@N06/9711729267/

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  13. Fwiw, I am looking for a 9/11H, pullback into 9/13L and rally into 9/18H http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/

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    1. Thanks a lot Raj, that lines up with Chris' thinking.

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  14. I think gold is close to reversing back up. If so, there is a silver geocentric Neptune 72° cycle Oct 1, which could be the next high.

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    1. Or a bounce to the 17-20th and then down to Oct 1.

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  15. interesting comparison - .952 similarity of most recent 250 days

    http://time-price-research-astrofin.blogspot.com/2013/09/djia-2013-vs-1935-update.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Time-price-research+%28Time-Price-Research%29

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  16. Just posted elsewhere that something doesn't add up to me regarding the USD and gold.

    The dollar has been hit hard the last week and yet, in what is historically the strongest month of the year by far, bar none, gold has been sold lower and in particular the weakness on the dollar the last two days.

    Now given that the dollar now sits very near the long term uptrend from the 2011 low, wouldn't or shouldn't gold at least be looking a little bit interested?? And it's not even SLIGHTLY bit interested.

    And commercials are net long gold???

    Like I said, things don't add up, but I think one way or the other we are about to see fireworks!
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p41561672621

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  17. Updated Seasonal Chain Relative charts for London Gold and London Silver have been posted on my blog.

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  18. Gold broke its neckline of the Head and Shoulders, minimum target $1275

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    1. Yes supports lost, going to new lows.

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    2. According to the latest Bloomberg Gold Sentiment Survey the gold sentiment was the highest since November 11th. Bull markets climb a wall of worry. The conditions are not yet ripe for the bull market that began in 1999 to resume.

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  19. the 2 S-U 15* 9/11-12 = H. Next is geo Mars at pentagonal point on 9/14 (low Monday am?). Then 9/18-20 (ven 0 sat, pluto direct and sun at pentagonal pt (also Fall equinox). Then 9/27 (helio Mars and Earth at pentagonal pts).

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  20. I didn't realize until today that the upside-down trick can be used on bear markets.

    http://s1148.photobucket.com/user/platypusfoot/media/gcruud.jpg.html?sort=3&o=0

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    1. I think doing this kind of analysis fools many to believe it works. Picking tops as a reference point after the fact is easy.. But harder to see what comes next. No Chart are ever the same, just somewhat similar. This is one of my problems when it comes to my own forecasting which in times I forget that a reactive state is a better tool than a probabilistic theory. Until I get there... I will be reading books.. lol.

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    2. I agree these type of charts should not be taken too seriously, however they are useful to determine "are we there yet". I am seeing some forecasters saying that the bottom is in, but when I look at it this way, I can see that it clearly is not.

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  21. Buffee - What do the pentagonal points refer to? Possible High or Low or CIT?

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  22. Brad Cowan's book Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory identifies specific longitudinal degrees that, when transited by planets or earth/sun, create cits. They don't specify high or low. I hope this helps.

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