Saturday, September 14, 2013

Late September

September 5 was the top of the first leg up from the August 28 low for SPX and also the beginning of the 2nd leg. It looks like the 2nd leg is exhausting so a correction may come soon before continuing higher.

A low was made for gold with the September 6 Ceres cycle but reversed on September 9 when heliocentric Neptune crossed the 36° harmonic. It has since lost major support but should be close to a brief relief rally before dropping further.

September 17-18 is a near triple conjunction of Saturn, Venus and the North Node. This may affect all assets.
9/18/2013: Saturn, Venus, North Node Near Triple Conjunction
Pluto turns direct September 20, also possibly affecting all assets.

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The S&P has a geocentric Ceres 36° cycle on September 22, and a geocentric Jupiter 18° cycle on September 23.
9/22/2013: S&P Geocentric Ceres 36° Cycle

Also on the 23rd is a DOW geocentric Mars 72° cycle.
9/23/2013: DOW Geocentric Mars 72° Cycle
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Heliocentric Ceres is at gold's 72° on September 21 opposite Neptune, and at silver's 36° on the 23rd.
9/21/2013: Gold Heliocentric Ceres 72° Opposite Neptune
Venus joins gold's 72° harmonic on the 25th, forming a Golden Triangle with Ceres and Uranus.
9/25/13: Venus, Ceres, Uranus Golden Triangle at Gold's 72° Harmonics
A major turn (low?) for gold and silver may occur in early October when geocentric Neptune crosses silver's 72° harmonic and Earth conjuncts Uranus, to be discussed in a separate post.

57 comments:

  1. The markets have responded favorably to the news that Larry Summers has withdrawn from the Federal Reserve race.

    I have previously thought that the Sept 20 high might be at 1683, although I also considered that 1704 to 1728 was on the cards.

    If this last rally can continue then the top might very likely be between 1708 to 1725.

    Recently, Jay did an excellent post on Fibonacci extensions. I did my own research and it turned out to be very interesting.

    From the 3/6/2009 low to the 6/5/2009 high the 300% Fibonacci extension will come in at around 1726. The 200% extension also stopped the rally. In fact, the EMini had 3 attempts of breaking through the 200% extension from 9/14/12 to 10/17/12 before retracing back to 161.8%.

    The below link provides my Fibonacci extension chart.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/97307769@N06/9765657544/

    Further, the square of 9 foretold each CIT.
    • The 100% extension rally from 3/6/2009 to 4/26/2010 lasted 286TD's. 289 sits on the SW diagonal. The market rallied 572 points. The NE diagonal is 577.
    • The intermediate low on 7/6/2010 came in 49TD's later. 49 sits on the same SW diagonal. Prices lost 210 points (38%). 211 sits on the SE diagonal;
    • The 200% extension on 9/14/2012 occurred 556TD's later. 553 sits on the NW diagonal. This rally extended prices by 298 points from the 4/26/2010 high. 298 sits on the western cardinal. Or, if we take the rally from the 7/6/2010 low the market rallied 508 points. 507 sits on the SE diagonal;
    • The next intermediate low was 45TD's later on 11/16/2012. 46 is on the southern cardinal. The market lost 128 points. 127 is on the western cardinal;
    • The 9/20 2013 high will be 211TD's from the 11/16/2012 low. 211 is on the SE diagonal. These are the potential prices:
    a) 281 points from the 9/14/2012 (average of the highs) high is 1715. 281 sits on the southern cardinal;
    b) 289 points from 9/14/2012 is 1723, which is on the SW diagonal; or
    c) 289 points which gives 1732 on the western cardinal.

    The circles of 24 gives 2 prices from the eastern cardinal or the very important 0 degree line. They are 1704 (24 x 71) or 1728 (24 x 72).

    Neptune sextile is currently at 1713 and Pluto conjunction and Uranus square are at 1718.

    And lastly, Saturn (and the North Node) is at 218 degrees. 270 degrees from 218 gives a price of 1708, whereas 315 degrees is 1725.

    On balance, 1723-6 would most likely take the honor of being the top. Picking the low is for another time.

    The final top is starting to look like mid January 2014.


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    1. Excellent, Chris. My Seasonal Chain Relative model is projecting a secondary top on 20th January 2014 with the usual allowance of +/- 2 weeks.

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    2. Hi Jay.

      Based on one of your previous posts, that the North Node influences the S&P, I ran a scan for all the Node and Neptune aspects. Every aspect ended up turning prices.

      I have not yet finalized my analysis and I will post it when it is completed. The next aspect is January 15th, so we have some time.

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  2. An addendum to the above.

    The low on 10/11/2002 to the high on 10/12/2007 was 261 weeks. 261 is on 28 degrees on the square of 9. It took the market 73 weeks to reach the 3/6/2009 low from the high of 10/12/2007. 73 is on the SE diagonal. From this low to 9/20/2013 will be 237 weeks. 237 on 150 degrees, which is halfway between the western cardinal and the NW diagonal.

    But the interesting point is that from the 3/6/2009 low to the 9/20 high the rally will result in around 1157 increase in prices to 1721. 1721 sits on the NE diagonal. But if we use 28 degrees (for the 261 week rally from the 2002 low) we end up with 1729.

    Geometrically perfect.

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    1. Thanks for your great work Chris!

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    2. Again nice research Chris.

      I have some interesting info that you might be interested in, just email me at: timeandcycles@gmail.com

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    3. Chris, are you implying that if Sep 20 does mark the interim top at 1729 (Fib 300% extension) that it would lead to a similar decline back to the 261.8% extension in the low 1600's within two months such as what occurred back in 2012?

      Or am I merely inserting words and assumptions into your mouth and all you have suggested is that 1729 on Sep 20 marks an interim top (only)?

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    4. Hi Awakening.

      I wish, but I am not experienced enough to say that that is how the market will respond. Personally speaking I hope the market marks a top at this price.

      Given how the market reacted previously it seems to me this is on the cards.

      MP is good at using Elliott Waves. He might confirm the likelihood of a A-B-C pattern to the early November low.

      I was going to wait until the top had been confirmed however, I will post my analysis over the week-end. It is only my thoughts, which are likely to change if the market behaves contrary to my analysis.

      Thanks to everyone for your kind responses. I hope by sharing how I do my research it encourages you share your thoughts as well, which was, no doubt, Platy's intent as well.

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  3. Hi Chris what software do you use for astrology charts, is it COWANS CycleTimer. Please advise thanks

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    1. I use CycleTimer for potential CIT's however, my aspects are obtained using Patrick Mikula's Market Warrior. See:

      http://www.mikulaforecasting.com/

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  4. I just did a quick study on Heliocentric Ceres cycle, the result is that from 9-17-2003 until 11-27-2012 the pattern so far is L-H-H-L-H-H-L-H-H-L-H. Next one is 9-22-2013 when ceres will be at gold 144 harmonics. So by looking the pattern so far, there's a high chance the next one is a high.. hopefully I'm wrong though :D

    Cheers.

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    1. Nice! Maybe we get a low on one of the Sept 17-20 dates, then a high on the 22nd, then down to a major low. Thanks SS!

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  5. In my 9/10 blog post, http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2013/09/review-and-forecast.html, I was looking for a 9/11H, brief pullback into 9/13L and another rally into 9/18H. It was also mentioned then that a rally above 1692 SPX would lead to a retest of the 8/2 all time Highs.

    Actual: We rallied into a 9/11-12 Solar Change in trend (CIT) High, saw a brief pullback into 9/12-13 geometric CIT Low and continued to rally into today, retesting the 8/2 All time Highs at 1709.67 SPX.

    Charts and more:http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/

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  6. Chris,

    Pretty good call so far. What happens after 9/20? A pull back till 10/1 and a higher high in early November says Charles Nenner.

    Thanks.

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    1. Hi Suren.

      What a weird market!! Yesterday I thought we had probably found the top. What if 9/20 is merely the start of another explosive continuation move. It's perplexing. If we do find the top around this price, I have the low on or around November 5, close to 1584-1587. My analysis will be posted once we find the actual high.

      I am not good enough to say whether we might see higher highs.

      I can only give potential prices. Jay's research above however, suggests the mid-Jan top will be lower.

      I also refer to:

      http://www.minyanville.com/mvpremium/2013/09/18/fed-day-does-the-wooly/#ixzz2fFZLUpb7

      The DJ is in the process of re-testing the bottom of the channel. A pull back from there would be the trigger to go short.

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    2. Hi Chris,

      Although the DJIA Seasonal Chain Relative Composite Index shows a lower low in January 2014, you have to be careful how you interpret it. The model is devoid of any trend and only accounts for the correlation of returns with cyclical heliocentric planetary longitudes. So, all the model tells you is that you will see a pivot high in January 2014 but that high could be an all time high or could be a lower high. Said differently, the actual price curve for the DJIA is the sum of an unknown trend component and the Seasonal Chain Relative component.

      Jay

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    4. Hi rotrot.

      It is christopher_frey0988@hotmail.com

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  7. LOL, Fed slashes growth forecaast, stocks leap higher. Nothing wrong here market in perfect working order!

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    1. LOL... Punch Bowl and Kool Aid all filled up... enjoy!!!!

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    2. Now that the Taper is done... lets get back to the Debt Ceiling. Are we using the stairs or are we taking the elevator...???

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    3. Oh BTW, the USD just collapsed through major support

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    4. Don't worry the hangover hasn't kicked in yet. People are still partying..

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    5. Lets see if we can get a dynamite wick instead of a candle wick today... Would definitely be a nice setup for it.

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  8. Price meets time on the Dow Jones Mini December contract.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/97307769@N06/9809917125/lightbox/

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    1. Well done Chris. You may have nailed it.

      Just thinking today. The USD looks very vulnerable, markets topping, bonds looking like a bubble.
      Has the Fed just created the perfect storm, whereby investors dump all US assets emasse?

      As a foreigner a falling USD dramatically compounds any losses on my US investments and I have already begun dumping.


      Cheers

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  9. I have just noticed some further geometry in the Emini which may add to the argument we may be witnessing a high.

    Over the period 3/15/2012 through to 5/3/2012 prices tried poking above the 176.4% Fibonacci extension level.

    The first real test occurred on 3/26/2012. Following the third attempt, prices fell 141 points.

    On 12/19/2019 (188TD's from 3/26/2012) prices again hit the 200% Fibonacci extension level after attempting to rally above this level during September and October of that year.

    Yesterday's trade was 188TD's from 12/19/2019 and is at the 300% Fibonacci level.

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  10. Typo above on the year 2019. Which year is it?

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    1. Ooops sorry, it was supposed to read 2012.

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  11. My 9/18 Solar CIT was the 9/19 High right at the Open High of the Day.

    We are now down into my next T&C Cluster CIT.

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  12. platy,chris,Raj,

    you guys are doing awesome job. Please do post your thoughts on how you feel its going to go from here. Do you think its a major decline from here.

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    1. The Pluto-Uranus-Jupiter square is taking on more and more importance. Pluto turning direct (as called by Chris) is important to this configuration, so it is looking good for the top. The next major turn date also relating to this is early October, Earth conjunct Uranus square Pluto and Jupiter. I think we may see a decline into this date.

      Metals are getting oversold short term, so we may see them bounce in the same time frame.

      JMHO -- would like to hear from others.

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  13. Bearish weekly shooting star on the DOW. Look at the negative divergences on this chart, particularly the RSI.
    A significant top could be in.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p04438390278

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  14. Hi platy, do we have some kind of turn date between 24th to the 1st of Oct? I'm seeing a potential 1780 in early Oct on the spx

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    1. 23rd +/- 1 day is S&P Jupiter 18° and DOW Mars 72°, but then I don't have anything until Oct 3 +/- 1 day, Earth-Uranus conjunction.

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  18. I removed yesterday's analysis because I now think we will see a CIT on October 24 based on prices meeting time at around 1620. November 5 could mark a high (wave B?) and not a low with a vicious leg down to November 18-20 (1584?).

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    1. So now you think that mid of Jan.2014 could be the Top?

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    2. So after nov 5th high there is another leg down to late november?

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  19. I try to avoid picking highs and low so far way as its like throwing a dart. But yes, I feels right that January could be a high. I removed my earlier post because I dismissed the October CIT based on the last 2 pull-backs. Now, I am not so sure, so I removed the post. That, plus with the cluster of CIT's has me confused.

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  20. Looking at December GOLD, the GANN symmetry is just simply amazing. Gold seems to like the diagonals on the square of 9.
    Firstly, the weekly chart.
    From the high on week 8/26/2011 the initial thrust lasted 5 weeks (NE diagonal).
    For a period of 3 weeks from 9/21/12 through to 10/5/12 prices stagnated. Week 2 was 58 weeks from the high. 58 is on the NW diagonal.
    The weekly low on 6/28/13 was 96 weeks from the high and is on the NC.
    This week will be 109 weeks from the high. 111 sits on the SE diagonal, so I expect/assume the next major move will not happen for another 2 weeks?
    Turning to the daily geometry.
    The top on 10/5/12 to the low on 11/1/2012 lasted 21 TD's (SE diagonal). The high was 1810. 1807 is on the SE diagonal. The low on 11/1 was 1687. 1681 is on the SW diagonal and Uranus was sitting on 1690, or nearly midway between the two.
    It took 182TD's to get from the above top on 10/5/12 to the low 6/28/13. 183 is on the NW diagonal. The price of the low was 1182. Jupiter was at 1186 and Ceres at 1202.
    It took 225TD's to get the 8/28/13 high. 225 is on the SW diagonal. The high price was 1434. 1434 is on 66 degrees (or is that 66.6 degrees?). This angle is important because it also found the tops on 11/26/2012 and 4/9/2013.
    The last date was 9/20 (Pluto turned direct) and was 241TD's. 241 is on the NW diagonal.
    The next potential CIT is at 249TD's (October 3) from the 10/5/12 high. 249 is on the NC and would be 111 TW's from the 2011 high. Geometrically perfect.
    A double bottom scenario? On the hexagon chart, Saturn will be at 220 degrees. 270 away from Saturn is 1184. Mars is at 1188.

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  21. Hey platy.
    Well, its almost Q4. Can you believe it, 2014 will be here before we realise it!

    There sure is a lot of uncertainty with the debt ceiling/govt funding issue, but still...QE continues..and it will tough for the bears to break this market significantly lower. Bears needed 7 trading days just to knock the market 2.3% lower.

    Hopefully, at least the remaining quarter of the year won't be dull !

    Good wishes for Q4 !

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    1. Hey PD! Certainly is tough to short these markets, but usually there is a lot of choppiness before a big sell-off and it seems like we're in the choppy period. That sharp peak on the 19th might be a tell. Sometimes the middle peak of the 3 peaks is sharp like that. So it might be better just to keep watching for now to see how it plays out. Sideways is the hardest to trade! And we still have trend channel support from November last year.... When that breaks it should get clearer I think.

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  22. Hi Platy,

    Just an FYI: I have the following on my calendar:

    October 4, 2013, this coming Friday, will put Uranus 18 degrees from the March 6, 2009 low.

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  23. I should also add that adjusting for precession would put the 18 degree date around September 30 or October 1.

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