Monday, September 30, 2013

Equities October Turn Dates

Important message:From now on I will be referring to the harmonics derived from the NYSE natal chart as NYSE turn dates, not Nasdaq turn dates. Harmonics derived from the Nasdaq natal date will be added to the analysis, which I will refer to as Nasdaq turn dates. Derivation of Nasdaq harmonics will be covered in a separate post.

On October 3, Earth will conjunct Uranus, squaring Pluto and Jupiter. This event has also been mentioned here and here. Events involving Uranus are often "surprising".
10/3/2013: Earth Conjunct Uranus Square Pluto and Jupiter
Reader PimaCanyon points out that October 4 is Uranus 18° from the March 6, 2009 low.

October 5 is a NYSE geocentric Ceres 72° cycle and a new moon.
10/5/13: NYSE Geocentric Ceres 72° Cycle; New Moon
October 7 is a DOW geocentric Uranus 18° Cycle.
10/7/2013: DOW Geocentric Uranus 18° Cycle
October 11 is an NYSE geocentric Saturn 18° cycle.
10/11/13: NYSE Geocentric Saturn 18° Cycle

The remaining turn dates include 2 Ceres cycles and a Sun-North Node conjunction. Sun-North Node interactions often occur at significant turns, including the November 17, 2012 conjunction at a major low, and the August 4, 2013 square, a major high.

October 14: NYSE geocentric Mars 18°
October 16: DOW geocentric Ceres 36°
October 18: Penumbral Lunar Eclipse
October 20: S&P Ceres 36°
October 24: S&P Mars 72°
October 31: Geocentric Sun-North Node Conjunction

42 comments:

  1. Great work as usual Platy, I had a question, please email me at timeandcycles@gmail.com

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  2. I get October 24 as another CIT however, on balance, it is more likely to be October 21.

    In the event prices take a fall, as is generally expected, then a potential low on 10/21 is around 1603-5 may be expected.

    I have arrived at 1604 as follows:
    • Neptune opposite will be at 1593, Pluto trine at 1600 with the North Node sextile in the middle;
    • 1600 touches the trendline made from the April 18 low and the June 24 low;
    • From the September 19 high of 1726.75, 1604 will be 1.5 squares away. Moreover, 1726-1604 = 122. 11x11 = 121;
    • On the hexagon chart, Saturn will be at 222 degrees. 1603 sits on 222 degrees;
    • On the square of 9, 222 degrees is 3 degrees off 225 (SW diagonal) and 1601 is on the NE diagonal.
    The geometry on the attached chart appears to confirm this analysis:
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/97307769@N06/10031685614/in/photostream/
    The horizontal and vertical red lines are date and price. The other red line is GANN's 4x1 angle, which clearly influenced prices back on May 22 and September 29.

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    1. Thank you Chris and congrats on calling the Sept top!!

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    2. Thanks Platy. We shall see if it was just good luck!

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  3. Take a look at the second chart...

    http://tfaat.blogspot.ca/2013/10/monthly-overbought-exit.html

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    1. Based on this chart, Cowan is right on and most world indexes are still holding those tops in May except for some European and US stock index.

      http://static3.businessinsider.com/image/524b3fa569bedd176940fdba-960/smart-money-flow-index-vs-dow-2.png

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  5. We are close to a major Low

    http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com

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    1. Perfect! Thanks Raj!

      I'm seeing some important aspects in mid to late November, which could be the next major high?

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    2. Hi Raj... Great work. could you elaborate more about the last comment?

      "This is my last public post for quite some time as the coming weeks should be a wonder to behold."

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    3. Raj,

      My Gann Angle price for SPX on 10/7 is 1657.55. That is roughly your H&S target.

      Jay

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    4. I have been researching 18 and 36 degree cycles and more recently 18 and 36 TD cycles. On October 3 Uranus will be 18 degrees from the March 5 2009 low.

      All but 1 of the 1.8 degree orbits of Uranus caused a CIT. They were evenly split, with a couple of short rallies of around a week followed by a heavy sell off.
      Using the highs and lows from the current EMini contract gives the following CIT clusters.

      3, 3, 5, 7 and 8

      10, 12, 13, 13 and 15

      21, 25 and 30.

      October 4 might merely be an acceleration of the bear trend?
      .

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    5. MP, it just means that the next few weeks will make some strong powerful moves.

      Thanks Jay, the 10/4 cycle Low is +/- 1, so it could also have arrived on 10/3 Low at 1670 SPX, which was close enough to the 1665 SPX Trend line support and if we see a last hour high Friday, then Monday is biased to be Higher and Vice versa.

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    6. The cycle that saw the 9/26H and sharp decline into 10/7L was 2 TD off, but that is not acceptable in my work.

      Nevertheless, we are now in the expected powerful rally phase.

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  6. Actually BPcompq has just turned in a down position on Oct 1st..

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  7. Just wondering if anyone has any insight or knowledge of any potential impact that comet ISON might have (if any) on the financial markets. Apparently it will pass very close to Mars and to the Sun and late Oct or early Nov the corona will be massive making it appear like a second Sun (assuming glare from Sun does not mask it out). ISON is referred to as the comet of the century.

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    1. Great question. There are some important turn dates near perihelion, so maybe there is a connection.

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  8. I came across the first link a while ago. The second may be influenced. Who knows.

    http://www.amanita.at/Interessantes/Artikel/detail.php?id=25841

    http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/a_cooling_planet_means_price_inflation/

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    1. Interesting stuff, thanks Chris!

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    2. The first link has a wealth of information about comets and its impact to society in general. Nice find, Chris!

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    3. I had an article on the same topic earlier this year. Generally, lower sunspot activity and global cooling has coincided with long term periods of deflation. While extreme cold weather drives up prices of food initially, the declining population as a result of hunger was typically deflationary in the longer run. See: http://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/04/27/long-term-commodity-price-cycle/

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  9. Some interesting observations. From the 3/6/2009 low to the 5/2/2011 high it was 544 TD's. And from the correction low on 10/4/2011 to 11/27/2013 it will be another 544TD's. From 3/6/2009 to 11/27/2013 it will be 1196TD's.

    33x36 = 1188 = 11/15/2013.

    • 11/16 will be 1 year (or 360 degrees or 36x10=360) from the 11/16/2012 low;
    • 11/16 will be 216 degrees from the 4/11/2013 high;
    • 11/20 will be 180 degrees from the 5/22 high;
    • 11/17 will be 144 degrees from the 6/24 low; and
    • 11/28 will be 90 degrees from the 8/28 high.
    And whilst I accept it is not perfect, if we use an initial pulse of 28TD's (on the WC on the square of 9) from the 10/4/2012 low we get a high on the contracting triangle that lasted from 10/27/12 to 11/16/12. 9 squares away gives 541 (WC), which is 11/22. 9 squares should mean the rally should have concluded. There is more:
    • From the high on 7/16/2007 (the left shoulder for the 10/11 high before the crash) the Sun and Mars aspect will have moved 1080 degrees on 11/21. 36x30=1080;
    • From the 3/24/2000 high (before the dotcom crash) Mars will have moved 2610 degrees on 11/22. 145x18=2610.

    Looking at price, from the 2009 to the 5/2/11 high prices rallied 747 points. From the corrective low on 10/5/11, 747 points gives 1764.

    1762 sits on the 252 degree (36x7=252) angle of the hexagon chart. At this time I have only reviewed 2 years of prices and the S&P does not respect 252 degrees in making highs. The closest fit would be 180 degrees, which is 1730, or in other words a double top?
    All very interesting, but only observations.

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  10. Nice Chris - I will look at it more
    I had 11/16 -17 already a couple of ways .
    One way is 365/1.414 = 258 CD = 19th Sept high from 11/16/13

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  11. today we have Bradley major turn....

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  12. Some observations ... late last year's Mercury Max cycle began Oct 26, Nov 6 (retrograde station), Nov 17 (inferior conjunction with sun), and ended on Dec 4, 2012. What happened leading up to that cycle and during that time frame? On Oct 5 (21 days prior to the start of M.Max) SPX hit a relative high ~1471. 21 days passed by and on M.Max Oct 26 start date it recorded a relative low ~1403 or -68 (-4.6%). 11 days later on Nov 6 when it went retrograde it made a marginal bounce to ~1433 or +30 (-2.1%). Another 11 days passed by and on Nov 16 (Nov 17 was a Saturday when it went inferior conjunction with sun) it hit a lower low ~1343 -90 (-6.3%) and this day was also the bottom and ended up as a huge bullish reversal day.

    This year's third and final Mercury Max cycle begins Oct 9, Oct 21 (retrograde station), Nov 1 (inferior conjunction with sun), and ends on Dec 18, 2013. Now check this out relative to late last year's cycle. On Sep 18 (21 days prior to start of M.Max cycle) S&P500 recorded a relative hi 1729.5 (marginally higher on Sep 19). 21 days passes by and on Oct 9 (start of M.Max) a relative low 1646.5 hits -83 (-4.8%). Nearly identical!

    If the analogy continues then the markets should make a choppy, volatile bounce leading up to Oct 21 when it goes retrograde station and the interim high might be around 1685 +38.5 (+2.3%). That should be a critical turning point and likely ideal shorting opportunity if it indeed drops like a rock into Oct 31/Nov 1 as it makes an inferior conjunction with sun. The magic number is ~1580's -105 (-6.25%) and also coincides with major trend support line from Nov 2012 low (if memory serves correct).

    Couple of things to consider here. Last year Oct 26-Oct 31 had only 2 TD's due to holidays(!!??). This year there is Oct 17, 2013 debt ceiling deadline and obviously something positive must likely occur in near future that leads to a brief one or two day euphoric rise in the markets on Oct 18/21, similar to the Sep 18 Fed date which fizzled out just as quickly.

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    1. Oops ... typo. Mercury Max ends Nov 18, 2013 (not Dec) this year.

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    2. Great research Awakening!! In looking into your analysis, I found some interesting cycles. The first is 98 TD cycles.

      Starting from the low on 11/16/12, 98TD cycles gave the 4/11/13 top and the 8/29/13 low. Moving the cycle to the 12/28/12 low it gave us the 5/21/13 high (1 day off the actual high on 22) and yesterday's low (which closed right on the Mars square line).
      Moving the cycle forward to the 6/24/13 low, we get November 11. And moving it to the 8/2/13 high we get December 19. And to the low on 8/28/13 we get January 14.

      And there is this. From the high on 5/22/13 to the high on 8/2/13 it was 50TD's. From 8/2/13 to 9/19/13 it was 33TD's. 50x.618=33. Assuming this cycle continues, 33x.618=20, which is October 17.

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    3. Sorry, 50 x .618 = 31, not 33.

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  13. Great work Awakening and Chris!

    The next Uranus-Pluto square is November 1. This has been very important to both equities and metals.

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  14. On July 10, 2013, Pauline Novak-Reich wrote an article titled: "Unlocking the secrets of Gann: Will the market crash in August?" in Futures Magazine.

    Available at: http://m.futuresmag.com/2013/07/10/unlocking-the-secrets-of-gann-will-the-market-cras

    (No, it is not a typo. It is "cras", not "crash").

    In that article Pauline held the belief the S&P would crash between 16-16 August because it completed the GANN cycle from the March 2009 low. the crash failed to materialize.

    Here is another potential outcome.

    287TD's from the 3/6/09 low gave us the first significant high on 4/26/10. 289 sits on the SW diagonal on the square of 9. 9 spirals out from 289 is 1225. 9 spirals should mean the market rally has fully matured (QE notwithstanding).

    1225 is January 7, 2014. The Bradely Siderograph gives CIT dates for January 1 and 9. In my comments above, I came up with January 14.

    Will this be the final high?

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    1. This is very intriguing Chris - Venus and Earth will be in triple conjunction with Jupiter ~January 7, opposing Pluto and squaring Uranus.

      This is analogous to the 1932 bottom, when there was a triple conjunction of Earth, Venus and Ceres, opposing Pluto and squaring Uranus, discussed here.

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    2. Thanks Platy. I think all our analysis is starting to give us a clearer picture of the underlying market structure. Since uploading the last comment, I drew some GANN squares on the Emini continuous chart.
      GANN said to draw squares from the equinox to ascertain market behaviour. So I did. My starting reference was from the low of 1372 on December 21, 2012. I drew the squares using Metastock's default chart settings, so some slight scaling issues may be embedded in the chart.
      Based on this chart I am starting to think the EMini may well hit a high of 1750 between 1-6 November for the following reasons:
      • The top of the square sits at a price of 1752;
      • The date for half the range of the square is November 6;
      • On November 4, Mars opposite crosses Uranus sextile at a price of 1750, with the Node sitting at 1749;
      • Mars opposite also found, or was very close to the tops on May 22, August 5 and September 19;
      • The price of 1750 is 300% fibonacci extension from the low on 3/6/09 to the high 6/5/09;
      • 1743 is 18 squares off the 3/6/09 low of 564.5;
      • 564 is 1 point away from sitting on the NC (actual is 565) on the square of 9. 1744 is on the NC;
      • There is the solar eclipse and a full moon; and
      • the upper trend line on the chart crosses 1750ish in early November.

      Can it go higher??

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    3. as well as the very important solar eclipse, 11/4-11/11 see declination maximums or shifts in Jup, Nep and Pluto. Martin Armstrong has this same week as an important directional change accompanied by panic. The TWTR ipo is scheduled for 11/15 so they might try to hold the market up a little longer. Also 10/17 is an important Cowan synodic cit (J-S 120* from 3/24/00) - so this time period now (full moon - lunar eclipse) looks to me like the low for a rally into Nov to the 1780 area. Not to say there won't be volatility (next week 10/22 ven 180 ceres, and ven 120 sat). fwiw

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  15. Within this past week I have observed many extremely bullish articles and complete change of tone from the blogs of market observers/traders. In fact some even to the extreme of implying a huge bull run right into 2015 from here!

    One important fact (as outlined in the Amanita article link provided by Chris) is that during the past two decades there have only been two major (as defined by size or brightness) comets and each one was a prelude to a significant financial crisis. Comet Hale-Bopp 1997 led to the start of the Asian currency crisis 1997-1998 and comet McNaught 2007 led to the start of the USA real estate crisis 2007-2008. Comet ISON in Dec 2013 will likely have the best visibility (viewed from Earth) and is regarded as only the THIRD MAJOR comet in the past two decades which implies yet another significant unidentified crisis to unfold in 2014.

    Now the million dollar question is would such a crisis be the plummeting USA stock markets in 2014 or would it be an international crisis that ends up steering all foreign investment dollars into USA stocks for its relatively safe haven status and thus creating one of the biggest stock bubbles in history since the dotcom boom of the late 1990's?

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  16. I realize we do not discuss individual stocks here however, the geometry for NOR (Northrop Grumman) was too good not to pass on. The price for NOR is currently around 98.00.
    NOR posted a low 23.34 on 3/6/2009. On 7/6/2011 it found a high of 70.61 (a rally of 47.27) before losing 21.41 to fall to 49.2 on 8/19/2011.
    49.2 + 47.27= 96.47. The current price almost exactly corresponds to the 3/6/09 to 7/6/11 range.
    5 squares from the low on 3/6/09 is 96.65.
    √96.65 - 23.34 = 8.56, say 9. 9 squared = 81 + 23.34 = 104.34.
    104.34 + 96.65/2 = 100.49. therefore, 100.49 may well be the top.

    Looking at time, from 3/6/09 to 7/6/11 was 587TD's. 589 is on the EC. A further 587 TD's gives 11/1/2013. OR from the low on 8/19/2011, 31TD's (which is the low before the start of the strong rally) landed on 10/4/2011. 31 sits on the NW diagonal. 9 squares (or 360 degrees) on GANN's square of 9 is 553 (EC), or October 30. .
    So, in summary, we have 2 independent time cycles culminating in late October/early November along with prices.
    Accordingly, a significant CIT is due.

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  17. The Russell 2000 Mini is about to pop.
    TIME.
    • From the low on 10/4/11 of 565.6, to the high on 3/27/12 it was 120TD's. 120 x 3 = 360 (or 36 x 10). 360TD's from the low posted following the 3/27/12 high will be 10/25/13 (Friday).
    • Moreover, from the 10/4/11 low to the low on 11/25/11 was 37TD's, which is on the NE diagonal on the square of 9. 529TD's is on the SW diagonal and will be 10/28/13 (Monday).
    • And from the 10/4/11 low to the high on 9/14/12 it took 241TD's. From the low from the following retracement on 11/16/12 plus 241TD's will be 10/24/13.
    • The Russell's Natal chart has Mercury 60 Uranus (H). On 11/6/13 that aspect will appear again.
    • Also the Natal chart has Mercury 60 Neptune (H). On 10/31, that aspect will appear.
    PRICE.
    • 376.4% Fibonacci extension from the 10/4/11 low to the first inter high on 10/17/11 is 1137.
    • 10 squares from the low of 565.6 is 1141, which co-incidentally is 24 squared plus 565.6.
    • The solar value level price corresponding to October 25 is 1147 as the Sun will be at 211 SE diagonal).
    • Neptune square will be at 1144, Uranus sextile is 1150 and Mars sextile is 1144.5
    • On the hexagon chart, Saturn will be sitting on 222 degrees on 10/25. 135 degrees away is 1139. Uranus is at 1143 with the EC at 1140.
    So, there are compelling reasons to conclude that the Russell 2000 Mini will top out at between 1144 to 1147 on Friday October 25 or Monday 28, which seems be reinforced by the fact that open interest is taking a dive.

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