Friday, August 16, 2013

Jackson Hole

The Jackson Hole meeting this year is on August 22-24, coinciding with the gold geocentric Neptune 36° cycle making a Golden Triangle with Mars and Venus on the 24th.

There is also a Uranus, Pluto, Jupiter, Venus square the same day. This could result in an important turn for both metals and stocks. (The complete square is in effect from the 21st through the 29th; the Jupiter-Uranus square is at its maximum on the 21st.)
8/24/2013

47 comments:

  1. platy,
    i am sure you aware that Great Helicopter Ben is not going to be there to announce QE 4 this time !!!!
    do you think it will make any difference by other members especially Goldman sachs's guy who controls biggest and most influential reserve bank of Newyork mr.Dudley will be there and he may mentions of some free money to be given away to wall street do you think it will make any difference ::::

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I honestly don't think many will pay much attention to the infamous hole meeting this time.
      --

      *here is a thought... - re: metals

      If equities slip into mid-September...metals rise....

      THEN a turn...with a rally into early 2014..and the metals slipping back lower.

      Even if the Fed cut QE by 15/25bn, if the market has already retraced lower into the sp'1500s, we'll just rally on the 'it was already priced in' news
      --

      Regardless..have a good weekend Platy..and your legion of followers.

      Delete
    2. I don't know if it will make a difference Vick, just reporting what I'm seeing with the planets.

      Thanks PD!

      Delete
  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi rotrot.

      Can you please give us your experience with the Berg Astro Indicator. Is it a worthwhile tool?

      Thanks in advance

      Delete
    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    3. Instead of playing Mr. Mystery Man why don't you just answer the question.

      Delete
    4. So much for the Berg Astro Indicator - another bust.

      Delete
    5. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    6. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    7. You might be right Rotrot - today was a weird sell-off at the end of the day indicating something more substantial in the near future. I very well may have to open my mouth and insert my foot.

      Delete
  3. Platy, I hope you don't mind me posting these two links on here but I think this is fairly significant.
    The first chart is gold. Look at the period back in April and the bollinger bands just as the gold price collapsed.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p40389395170


    Now compare it to the current situation with the S&P500


    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p80176712765

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think that is too simplistic and possibly even cherry picking to support a "bearish crash" thesis. Not saying the potential is not there, but it ignores the facts that gold had already topped out in late summer 2011 and has been declining since then with an acceleration that began in Oct 2012. The situation in April and June for gold was probably just the dramatic climatic conclusion to the bear phase that was well in place.

      But compared to the S&P it has been on an extremely bullish run since the spring 2009 bottom and in fact the trend has accelerated beginning of 2013. One could even debate that the June 24th date exhibited the exact similar traits (expanding bollinger bands with price dipping below it) and expected an imminent crash, but instead that was a pivotal low and S&P rallied from that point to even higher highs.

      FWIW I am presently bearish on US equities near term.

      Delete
    2. I appreciate the inputs BJ & Awakening!

      Delete
  4. It seems to me that many many times it is the simple things that get overlooked and that more often than not lead to something significant.
    We, as humans have at times, an arcane ability to want complicate things.
    Simple as it may be, the BB's are indicating that a move of significant proportion is probably afoot.
    Ahhh hindsight, a wonderful thing.


    Mr da Vinci may have summed it up best:

    "Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication"

    ReplyDelete
  5. FWIW, August 24th will be the start of lunar green period, which increases the odds of rising stocks over the ensuing couple of weeks. Whether that will be as the result of the Jackson Hole meeting remains to be seen.
    But I think we will then go lower again in September to complete a regular stock market correction. August and September are "Metal" months this year, and they have a history of bringing downside action in stocks.
    I am not looking for a crash, although I don't rule it out. But so many people seem to be looking for some kind of crash, and that suggests we have a couple more years of upside action to come first. Crashes come when virtually nobody is predicting/expecting one.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, there are many talks of crashes, but remember one thing, the technical community is peanuts compared to the Whole World who have or is betting the farm and going for the MOON. The Margins have been increasing and it says something that no fundamentalist would even sigh over.

      Delete
  6. I pulled up a Jupiter trine Jupiter on the gold chart on the 23rd - wondering if anyone else sees same

    whoever posted re pluto retro and the gold drop and direct date end of month could they expand on that please - im looking at a big drop at end of September like others to go short prior thinking that matches thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. When Pluto went retrograde on April 12, over the next 3 days gold lost $228. Pluto is (apparently) gold's ruling planet. Given the April reaction, gold would be expected to react similarly in the future.

      Gold is currently influenced by seasonal factors which may last until the end of September.

      On my analysis September 20 (Pluto turn direct) is confirmed as price meets time between 20-22. From the stagnant highs of 1689 between the dates 1/29/13 to 2/7/2013 and the low of 1182 on 6/28/2013 converts to September 20-22.

      Also, Venus will be 150 Uranus on this date. This aspect shorted gold prices when it last occurred on 10/8/2012 and 11/23/2012.

      I think gold might pull back when it hits 1400 (on 8/22?) to 1350?

      But note that the latest COT report has the funds exiting their long contracts.

      Hope this helps.

      Delete
    2. Thanks .. In gann it's Venus and Jupiter together for gold I'm not sure about Pluto I've not heard that but it does rule mining so maybe gold miners ? That answer was great thanks ...

      Delete
    3. Ps there's a few things pointing for silver to reverse this week ... Merriman has a turn also mahendra I can't see it myself as I'm not all that great ..I'm looking at the Venus Jupiter sq also on gold this week tout one with the Jupiter trine on the actual gold chart

      Delete
    4. I think I read Pluto in one of Larry Pesavento's books.

      GUNNER 24 did a piece on gold this week-end

      www.GUNNER24.com

      Delete
  7. Platy i think you've nailed it with your gold turn dates.

    The weekly gold chart looks bearish to me and i think we turn this week.

    ReplyDelete
  8. And with more stories like tjis hitting the financial new wires everday doesn't make me anymore confident in it either
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/100966232

    ReplyDelete
  9. I also think the Aug 24 (Sat) date is a spot on turn date for precious metals. In my recent charting I have the GDX miners peaking on Aug 22 and it typically leads the gold metal by one or two days. Since the recent Aug 7 interim bottom, miners have been surging in a pattern of three strong up thrusts followed by one or two days of consolidation and then it repeats. If yesterday was the end of another consolidation, and today (intraday) it shows a bullish flag on the 30-min chart forming in the low $30's, these potential three up days could propel GDX to $32's by Aug 22.

    ReplyDelete
  10. I though you might find this interview interesting. The trigger?

    http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2013/8/20_We_Are_Now_On_The_Verge_Of_A_Historic_Meltdown_%26_Collapse.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I expect the S&P 500 will see a 50% haircut and maybe more if the expanding triangle since March 2000 ends up with a normal leg, i.e. it is not an E-leg failure. However, we should have a very strong secular stock market lasting about 16-20 years beginning around 2020 when buy and hold will once again rein supreme and commodities will once again be in the dog house.

      Delete
  11. Anyone have any reactionary cycle during Sept 2-6?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sept 5 Nasdaq heliocentric Jupiter 72°

      Delete
    2. Thanks Platy, For some reason I have a preference for this date as a strong reaction.

      Delete
    3. I have been trying to figure out an EW pattern for the following month ahead. Looking at the current wave, I would still be looking for a 5th wave lower to finish the trend possibly by tomorrow. Then a corrective zigzagging pattern up for the new week ahead starting on the 26th through to early Sept (possibly Sept 5 Nasdaq helio Jup 72deg Provided by Platy). At this point either a 3rd wave down or a C wave down till the last week of Sept or early Oct. would finish of the wave 3 or C decline or finish. Depending on the severity of an impulsive pattern to the downside we could finish of these small sub-waves within this year as an A wave pattern or a 1st wave.

      Delete
    4. I did Elliott Wave Analysis for many years in the nineties. I was fortunate that someone introduced me to Glenn Neely's NeoWave method of Elliott Wave Analysis. It is rigorous and has clear and objective rules for when a pattern is corrective versus impulsive. The only rub was that the confirmation for completion of a wave often came too late for it to be useful. Most people who do EW analysis seem to see impulsive waves in just about every market move. Most of the large waves since the 2000 March peak have been corrective and definitely the larger waves since the 2011 October bottom have been corrective. When the market peaks, it will peak just like it did in 2007 with a corrective triangle. Right now the pattern to be looks like a neutral triangle or an expanding triangle in which the B-leg is shorter. If we drop below the May 24 low, we will likely get an expanding triangle and all-time highs although that will strictly depend on the termination point of the wave. Otherwise, we will see a neutral triangle.

      Delete
  12. I recently read an article out how gold seems to respond to the Moon at Apogee and Perigee.

    The chart shows the relevant dates. Interesting.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/97307769@N06/9571294243/in/photostream/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Looks a little hit & miss. Maybe not enough data? Thanks Chris!

      Delete
  13. Ok. Slash and burn that idea.

    Turning to the S&P, I came across this chart:

    http://mysquigglylines.blogspot.com.au/2013/06/my-sentiments-exactly.html

    I have tried to mirror it on the current weekly continuous S&P. Scaling was an issue however, the GANN lines do seem to be relatively accurate.

    Are we wrong? This chart suggests the top will not occur until late November at around 1820.

    I am not experienced enough with this part of GANN analysis. Can someone review the chart for me. I look forward to your comments.

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/97307769@N06/9572296379/

    I note that November 20 will be 180 degrees from the May high and is therefore, a projected turning date. In addition, Saturn will be sitting on 225 degrees on November 20. 1838 is at 225 degrees from Saturn and 1818 sits at 180 degrees. And November 20 will be 5 days from the anniversary date of the 2012 November low (December contract). And lastly, 1824 is 161.8% of the move off the November 5 2012 low to the February 19 2013 high.

    Good luck!!

    ReplyDelete
  14. Gold has hit a lot of head wind here from that congestion zone back in mid May to mid June.
    On the positive side, Aussie gold stocks are breaking out across the board with many breaking necklines after testing them the last few days, so whilst I had expected a top around here in gold, we may in fact be about to head higher into September.

    Just my thoughts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PS, I bought those breaks heavily today allocating the largest % of capital into gold stocks since late 2011.
      It now remains to be seen if I get slammed in the weeks ahead but given that I have said all along that gold stocks(particularly Aussie gold stocks lead the gold price), I have to stand by my conviction.

      If they begin to under perform I will review my position.

      Delete
  15. Further to my post yesterday the following may be relevant for a high on November 22 - 23.
    • On November 23 Uranus will be square Pluto.
    • 1804 sits exactly on the GANN 1x1 angle from the 2009 low on November 22-23. This date is also where Mars 180 (G) and Mars 180(G) inverse intersect.
    • On a weekly chart the 2013 prices have pretty much stayed inside the tramlines of Mars 60 and 180.
    Are these just all mere coincidences that can be ignored?

    ReplyDelete
  16. Wondering if mars' move into Leo might give gold a boost lot of fire there

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah major turn date Monday but I don't think the top is in yet, so maybe a pull back into the Mars ingress on the 28th and then another boost as you say. There are some important turn dates in early September, so we might see the high at that time.

      Delete
  17. Converting price/time from the gold top on 8/28 and the low on 8/7 gives a CIT for 9/20. This is the same date Pluto turns direct and is just 2 days off equinox.

    ReplyDelete
  18. Hi 9/20 is a high ? Thank you

    Alex

    ReplyDelete
  19. Pretty sure Sept 5 is going to be a major low for SPX. Metals should get a high around that time.

    ReplyDelete
  20. CIT's for gold using the time/price conversion and GANN's circle of 24.
    Golds low on 6/28 was 1 day off the Ceres 31 degree cycle from the 7/28/2010 low. In fact from 7/28, Ceres has moved 217 degrees over 1065 days. Some of you would be aware that 1061 is the symbolic number for "Jonas" in St Matthew which results in a circle when used with the numeric values from "the belly of the whale" or 1062 is the length of the sides of a square from the "Son of man" in "the heart of the earth". So the actual low was say, 3 days off, making 31 degrees Ceres cycles very very important for Gold. The next cycle is October 28. I will come to this later.

    Let's look at gold and GANN's circle of 24.

    At the high on 7/23, the Sun was at 120 (days from equinox - March 21). 120 is on the eastern cardinal on the C24. The SVL for 7/23 was 1355 with the actual high at 1348.
    The next low on 8/6 was the time/price conversion from the tops on 6/12 to 6/18. Moreover, on 8/6 the Sun was at 130 or 1 day off the western cardinal on the C24.

    For the high on 8/28 the Sun was at 154, which was 2 days before the western cardinal of 156. It was also the exact date of the time/price ("T/P") conversion from the low on 2/21/13 and the 6/28 low. In addition, the high was equal to the 50% fibonacci extension from the 6/28 low and the 7/23 high and was just $7.10 off $1440 which is on 0 degrees (eastern cardinal of the C24). Interestingly, 8/29 was a CIT for T/P for the highs on 5/29 to 6/7 and the 8/7 low.

    The next T/P CIT is on 9/6 calculated between the high on 3/22/13 and the 6/28 low. On 9/6 the Sun will be at 166. 168 sits on 0 degrees of the C24, so maybe we might experience a multiple day low??

    I observe that on 9/6 the 45 degree angle from the low on 6/28 passes over $1624, which per chance is exactly the 161.8% fibonacci extension. I AM NOT saying this will be price of gold on 9/6.

    The next likely CIT will be 9/20. This is based on Pluto turning direct and the T/P from the high on 1/22/13 and the low on 6/28. On 9/20 the Sun will at 176. 180 sits on the western cardinal.

    Returning to a possible CIT on October 28, this date is a T/P date from the high on 10/4/12 and 6/28. On 10/28 the Sun will be at 214. 216 is on 0 degrees of the C24. On 10/28 the 45 degree angle passes close to the intersection of the 261.8% extension discussed above, on the October contract. I haven't looked at the December contract.

    ReplyDelete

]]>