However, a review of this cycle shows that this cycle may be losing its effect as a major force.
|SPX and the Jupiter-Mars Cycle|
The oppositions in 2012 were not accompanied by other such major aspects, so although they still resulted in turns, the effect was not major.
The geocentric conjunction coming up on July 22 shown here occurs in trine with Neptune and Saturn. This should add weight to the importance of this date, although (with my very limited experience) trines do not seem as influential as conjunctions and oppositions.
The heliocentric conjunction on August 17 occurs 72° from Venus and at the same time as a Ceres-Earth opposition near 18° and the Moon's nodes at 18°. These aspects should add support to this turn date but I'm not convinced based on these aspects alone that either the July or August conjunctions rise to the level of importance that the 2009 or 2011 conjunctions had. (More on the August conjunction later.)
Therefore, I think we should pay close attention to the upcoming Jupiter-Mars conjunctions, one of which could mark the final top of the rally, but I suspect there may be something even more important coming into play.
One clue that I like to use is inversion charts. Now that we have seen the May peak and correction play out, let's look at an update to this post. [Note: I have switched to DOW for the chart below.]
The predicted path is right on track, with a relatively shallow correction from the May peak, and the all time highs currently being challenged. (Nasdaq has already exceeded its May peak.) We are approaching a period of minor correction/congestion, after which a very strong rally should ensue (blow-off top).
Using this chart as a very rough guide for price and time, it appears that August might be too soon for a final top, There were 4 months between the March 2009 low and the first important low in July, which are the inverses of peaks 9 and 10. That puts us very roughly into September 2013 for a final high. For price, there was a rally of approximately 2500 points from the March 2009 low to the June high at peak 1. Adding 2500 to the June 2013 low gives approximately 17000 points for a high. These projections should not be taken too seriously, as we can see from the chart above that the matches are approximate only and the actual top can be months and thousands of points different from these estimates.
Next I show the long term chart for the DOW against its inversion. This chart is not up to date, and is on a log scale, so there is some distortion. The point of this chart is to show the analogy that the rally we are in since 2009 is essentially a re-play of the rally from 1932 to 1937, upside-down. Therefore the final top we are looking for correlates to the July 8, 1932 bottom.
I want to come back to something I first brought up in this post, the Uranus-Pluto square. The last heliocentric Uranus-Pluto conjunction was January 7, 1966, very close to (and making a double top with) the February 9, 1966 major high. [Note: I don't have enough detail to see the exact date of the January high.] This opposition occurred at the Nasdaq's 72° harmonic, with Saturn in opposition at 32°. (Other important aspects are in place in this and subsequent charts which I don't mention.)
We are currently in the Uranus-Pluto square that follows the 1966 conjunction. So I think we should be looking for some kind of configuration with this level of importance to mark the final high. I think Jupiter is going to play the reinforcing role that Ceres/Earth/Venus had in 1932, and that Saturn had in 1966, with Jupiter soon opposing Pluto and squaring Uranus.
There are 7 geocentric and 1 heliocentric Uranus-Pluto squares in the 2012-2015 time frame, discussed here. The following chart shows that while the Jupiter-Mars cycle may be losing influence, the Uranus-Pluto square seems to be gaining influence.
|SPX and Uranus-Pluto Squares|
The following charts show a few possible configurations that could rise to the level of importance we are looking for. There are other possibilities but I just present a few that I think are good candidates, and we should get a better picture as we get closer.
At the time of the August 17, 2013 heliocentric Jupiter-Mars conjunction, geocentric Jupiter will be squaring Uranus, so this remains a good possibility, but would require a very strong rally into this date, significantly above the current high. On August 8, geocentric Jupiter is at exact opposition to Pluto, and square Uranus.
In Summary, I believe there are at minimum 2 things that need to happen before the final top is in.
1) We need a high that is significantly higher than the May high and without a major pull-back (a blow-off top); and
2) Jupiter should be in a square aspect with Uranus. This does not happen until July 23 when geocentric Jupiter enters this aspect, in effect through September 20 and most intense in August. The heliocentric Jupiter-Uranus square overlaps this, running from August 18 through February 3, most intense in November. This gives a window of July 23 through February 3.
11/17/13 update: Geocentric Jupiter is again square Uranus January 11, 2014 through June 7, 2014, which expands the window to July 23, 2013 - June 7, 2014.
There should also be some type of "triggering" event, such as the possibilities listed in the section above.