Sunday, July 28, 2013

Equities August Turn dates

The markets rallied into the July 22 geocentric Jupiter-Mars conjunction, with the S&P topping on the 23rd. There was a minor pull-back into the July 25 Saturn 18° cycle and a slightly further correction on the 26th. Turn dates are (with a few exceptions) +/- 1 day so this all fits. The daily candles are giving bullish signals so this correction is probably finished and the rally ready to continue. Such a minor correction is consistent with our expectation of a blow-off top occurring.

I am only going to talk about 3 dates for August.

August 7

This is the Armstrong turn date that brought about his warning that I addressed here. It is also 4 days after a complete Armstrong PI cycle (PI*1000 days) from the devastating Indonesia quake and tsunami, and we are in a period of potential disasters, as discussed in the linked post.

On the 8th, geocentric Jupiter is at exact opposition to Pluto squaring Uranus, a configuration highlighted in this post.
8/8/2013: Geocentric Jupiter Opposite Pluto Square Uranus

So this could be an important time, but I do not think it will be a major turn date for equities.

August 12

Geocentric Neptune is at the DOW's 18° harmonic, while Jupiter is at 36°.

8/12/2013: DOW Geocentric Neptune 18° and Jupiter 36° cycles
This could give a turn but probably not the most important one for August.

August 17-18

August 17 is a heliocentric Jupiter-Mars conjunction. This is an event we have been focusing on since almost the beginning of this blog and has been discussed in many posts. Venus often gives improved timing, and it crosses 72° the following day.
8/17/2013: Jupiter-Mars Conjunction at Nasdaq's 72° Harmonic

In addition, on the 18th the Moon's Nodes are at the Nasdaq's 18° harmonic, and there is a geocentric Sun-Ceres conjunction.
8/18/13: Geocentric Moon's Nodes at Nasdaq's 18°; Sun-Ceres Conjunction

The August 17 heliocentric Jupiter-Mars conjunction will be the 3rd since the March 6, 2009 major bottom, and the completion of the cycle of Mars hitting all 5 points of the Nasdaq's pentagram in 144° movements, a concept described in Cowan's Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory. Each 144° movement alternates as a conjunction or opposition to Jupiter. In the book, Cowan identifies the conjunction on this date as being associated with the 13 year Beast Cycle.
DOW Futures and Jupiter-Mars Conjunctions
(Geocentric) Jupiter is now squaring Uranus, one of the major conditions identified earlier for the top to take place.

Thanks to Jay's great work, we have confirmation using several different methods that August 16-20 is likely the top. See here and here.

We can also use the pattern inversion method on many time scales to see that this rally is ending. (Some of these have been shown before in recent posts.)

First the 81 year rally since 1932.

Next the 4 year rally since 2009. In this chart I show a little more of the projection than I have in the past. This is to show that there should be another peak coming up in a few months, peak 11. The time difference between peaks 10 and 11 is about 3 1/2 months but can be used only as a very rough approximation.

DOW

The same characteristics apply to the 2-year sub-rally that has taken place since the 2011 low. Each time we zoom in we can see a little more detail of what to expect. The blow-off top rally we are in is a little better defined here. The August and October 2011 double bottom inverts to an approximate August and October double top.

DOW

Finally, if the July 27 low holds, using inversion we can project an approximate price target for the August high. (Rough target only.)
DOW

In a final note, and to go a little off topic, I want to show that geocentric Jupiter-Mars conjunctions are so important that the Royal Couple got married at one (the 2011 conjunction was actually 2 days later on May 1)...
April 29, 2011: Royal Wedding
...and had a baby at one (date exact).
July 22, 2013: Birth of Prince George of Cambridge
This is an "as above so below" fractal of a much more important cycle that I will talk about more later.

156 comments:

  1. Great stuff, Platy. Thanks for all you generously share.

    ReplyDelete
  2. This is really quality outstanding work!

    Bravo Platy!

    Anon that pissed off Platy (in the past)

    ReplyDelete
  3. Platy

    Interested in a natal of uraniunm, how available are they? My curiousity is that it might suggest also, along with gold moving higher, that this market cycle is about done. My understanding is gold being one of the last to run in cycles, or both (including uranium)

    thanks for the insites !!!

    ReplyDelete
  4. You have the 6 sides of the cube from 2009 to 2013. Now, go back and take a look at the 6 sides of the cube that have emerged since 1987. I'll leave that for another post. The geometry is much much more involved. In the interim, here's some very simple stuff:

    Some simple math for those non Cowanites:

    http://screencast.com/t/AgfSHV6F

    Hmmmm, 6 / 4 = 1.5 or 3 / 2, primary component of the diatonic scale? As in 'vibration?'

    A little more math:

    http://screencast.com/t/Ao5jXEo8Dl

    And 7 intervals divided by 5 intervals is 1.40, really really close to sqrt(2); essential to "squaring the circle." Suggests to me the six sides of the cube are complete at 1696 (1987-1994, 1994-2000, 2000-2002, 2002-2007, 2007-2009, and 2009-2013). I have six of PTV values that suggest the same.

    Can't make this stuff up. And I can't begin to describe the more involved Cowan market geometry type 'stuff' I've seen today. Another substantial top would destroy the above symmetry and the PTV research that I have not presented.

    "No soup for you."

    Jim

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm a Cowan student too but I agree with Platy on this one. Just cuz u got similar ptvs here and there doesn't mean it marks a top. Imo, we will go up another 100 pts up on the spx.

      Delete
    2. There is another way of looking at the August turn dates. That is the turn dates for August doesn't have to be a top to be a major date. It could also be an acceleration. So that said it can be on EW 3rd wave down. Of course this is speculation only and indicators should be followed for more accuracy. I discussed this with Chris a week ago, but if the indicators tell me its going up then I won't fight it.

      Delete
  5. Hi Platy, Nice post. There is a confluence of interesting mathemical relationships near the Dow 16400 target. I have listed them here: http://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/07/27/why-dow-16000-will-be-sold/

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi platy
    Thank you for sharing useful info.
    bob collett

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hello Platy,

    I have today, July 29, marked on my calendar for this reason: Jupiter is 144 degrees (Helio) from the helio position it held at the March 6, 2009 low.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Thank you everyone for all your great additional inputs and nice comments!

    I don't have any information on uranium natal. If anybody can find that I can look into it but I think this system works much better for assets that are heavily traded.

    ReplyDelete
  9. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
  10. Dear Platty. I see you think the heliocentric Mars-Jupiter conjunction is very important to you and I think it is. But Cowan also states in his book that after every 18 degrees movemement of Uranus there should be a major turning point. On march 6 2009, Uranus was at 22.33 degrees Pisces. So 18 degrees later there should be a major turning point. According to the Ephemeris on astro.com, this should be on October 6 2013 (and according to my Aspectarian software it is on September 15 2013 ???!!). Shouldn't this be more important than the Mars-Jupiter conjunction?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for pointing this out! Also, I noted here that there is a DOW G Uranus 18° cycle that day. So yes there will probably be an important turn that day. Maybe that will be the double top?

      Delete
    2. OK, thanks for your answer.

      Delete
    3. MZ, both you and Platy get similar dates. Using Cycletimer I end up with October 4th. Not sure why I cant reproduce your dates.

      Delete
    4. Hi Anon, if I use ~8am or earlier for the March 6 2009 starting point I get Oct 4 2013. Any time later puts it into Oct 5.

      Delete
    5. Thanks platy!

      Delete
    6. great discussions all. using cowan's cycletimer program, helio Uran 18* from 3/6/09 = 10/4/2013

      Delete
  11. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Mahendra Sharma the financial astrologer and Martin Armstrong are predicting that the US stock markets will skyrocket till end of 2015 al least based on capital inflows. If the market starts to accelerate after a dip tis fall, all of you will have to go back to the drawing board to revise your forecast!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It also applies for the other way... Why does no one get this?

      Delete
    2. Mahendra also said that mining stocks would explode to new highs in 2013. Hasn't exactly worked out....

      Delete
    3. I think you will find that MA remains open on the issue of the stock market reaching new highs or not.
      He is call for a phase transition and dependent upon when that occurs will govern the prevailing outcome.

      ie., If the stock market reaches much higher highs(above 16K DOW), into August '13, then that could mark THE high with lower highs into 2015.

      Delete
  13. My latest research following discussions with MP and referring to MZ's comments above, tends to confirm a highly probable CIT in late September. Funds have been increasing their long positions for the last 2 weeks. This is despite my indicators flashing "sell" signals. In addition, I note the Astrological Investing Blog says that the top may be at around 1725. See:
    http://astrologicalinvesting.blogspot.com.au/2013/07/imminent-danger-of-another-fast-drop.html

    TD time counts gives an important CIT in September. Looking at the S&P monthly chart (continuous) from the high on 3/27/00, the low on 9/21/2001 occurred 18 months later. 18 x 9 = 162 = September. And the low on 2/22/2002 (month 23). 23 x 7=162. The weekly chart is even more specific as it gives September 19-20.
    If we add a 531 weekly cycle from the double top on 7/8/03 we arrive at 9/19.
    If we add 5 cycles of 531 days from the low on 3/12/2003 we arrive at 9/19. Now the number 531 is very important as it is comes straight out of Gospel of St Matthew and the prophet Jonas who allegedly was in the belly of a whale for 3 days and 3 nights. 3 days = 531 and 3 nights is 1061. Do yourself a favor and insert the daily 531 cycles in your chart. Almost every cycle found a top or bottom. The Gospel of St Matthew also exposed the law of 3 (which is 666 and 1080) and the law of 7 (being the law of octaves).

    Using the low on 10/10/2002 as my datum point, 353 weeks gives an intermediate low on 7/13/2009. 353 x 1.618 = the week commencing 9/16/13. Moreover, the low for week 453 minus the high for week 261 x .618 = 118. 118+453 = 571 = 9/20.
    So, if 531 cycles work, do the law of 3 golden ratio numbers of 666 and 1080? Yes!

    4 cycles of Venus 666 from 3/12/2009 is 9/23. Check out the other cycle dates, such as 10.8degrees Saturn from 7/16/2007 (9/21). There are other examples. Those of you who own CycleTimer might want to run some scans using the golden ratios and, where necessary adjusting the decimal point. Just Wow!!

    Or, here's another. The cardinal ratios in geometry for an expanding rectangle are 2.236 and 5.0. From the 2009 low on 3/6/2009 to the low on 3/17/2011 was 513TD. 513 x 2.236 = 1147, which is September 18. Or, if we use the expanding ratio for a square (1.414) from the low on 3/6/2009 to the intermediate low on 5/21/2012 = 811TD. 811 x 1.414= 1147 or September 18 (rounded off).

    On many occasions the inverse of Mars stops a bullish trend. The next Mars inverse should hit the market on around August 12. But on September 20 the TrueNode square crosses Mars sextile inverse at 1748.
    On September 20 Saturn will be roughly at 218degrees. Using the hexagon chart with Saturn at 218 gives a 0 degree trend line of 1743., 315 degrees is 1725 and 270degrees is 1708. On September 20 the Sun will be 176degrees, which is on the fixed cardinal of the square of 9. The SVL's are 1702 and 1738 respectively. And on this date on the circle of 24, Pluto and Mars are aligned.
    Lastly, on 9/20, Pluto goes direct and Venus will be 150 Uranus. The former aspect appears in S&P's natal chart. The Sun will be 135 Saturn, whereas in the Natal, the Sun was square Saturn.
    I have no idea whether this confirms a final top, but the geometry is too hard to dismiss.
    For a book on the Dynamic Time and Price Analysis of Market Trends (for TD counts)see the book of the same name by Bryce Gilmore. And for the Law of 3 and Law of 7 (Prophet Jonas decoded) see the Law of Vibration, by Tony Plummer. This book is available at Amazon. An amazing book.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Great detailed work Chris.. Enjoyed reading it.

      Delete
    2. Really fine work Chris, one can see you have put alot of research time in this. Fwiw, Aug-Sep should be Low months in my work

      How did you figure "3 days = 531 and 3 nights is 1061"?

      Delete
    3. Hi Raj.

      Tony Plummer says the ancients used gematria in their writings of the scriptures. Using the Greek texts and numerology he decoded St Matthew's Gospel. What the sign of the Prophet Jonas reveals is the golden ratios, the law of 3 and the law of 7, including the Piscean image of the vessel of 2 fishes (Age of Pisces).

      I apologise however, I wrote the numbers down incorrectly. Three days is 3x354=1061 and 3 nights is 531+1061 = 1592. The numbers arise from an interconnecting circle and a square. Circles and squares are Gann symbols and held religious meanings for both the Egyptians and the Greeks.

      The number 531 is derived from the radius of the circle 1061. It works on market timings. In fact, all the golden ratios do.

      Remember Gann said St Matthew's Gospel was the "key".

      I really recommend you read Tony Plummer's Book, "The Law of Vibration". He fully explains how he unravels the scripture. It should be compulsory reading for any Gann trader.

      Delete
    4. Thanks Chris, the 531 is close to my 525 CD/75 week Cycle and close to the well know 76-77 week Cycle.

      7 is the sign of completion in the Bible

      Delete
    5. All my time period counts are TD's and it seems to work out OK. That's a whole level of new investigation - the difference of CD and TD periods.

      Both 7 and 9? So much more to learn.

      Delete
    6. thanks,some really good info here to try and get my head round !

      Delete
    7. Hi CR, nice to see you stop by :)

      Delete
    8. thanks Chris - great work! full moon 9/19 - very high percentage of full moons are the high or low for at least the next month.

      Delete
    9. one question are you referring to with the "inverse of Mars" (aug. 12)? thanks in advance.

      Delete
  14. Beanz In a Green PodJuly 30, 2013 at 10:16 PM

    5 year cycle Earth Mars occurs on 8/1/13. Exactly:
    864° from 5/19/08 top.
    864° x 2 from 3/12/03 low.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mister Green BeanzAugust 2, 2013 at 12:54 PM

      That didn't work.

      Delete
    2. Spoke too soon. Maybe 8/2 was it, just one day later.

      Delete
  15. I forget the poster's name who previously mentioned this in one of the comments several months ago, but according to my notes Aug 24 (Venus opposition to Uranus) and Aug 26 (Venus squares Pluto), and he mentioned this was relevant. I looked up the last 5 times this astrological event occurred, as to what occurred in the stock market, and the following was consistent:

    1. A market top formed in the range approximately two weeks before the first date leading to the second date.

    2. A significant short term market decline ranging from -5% to -8% occurs within two weeks from the second date at the latest.

    So this time around with Aug 24, 26 dates (previous times there was a wider gap between the two events), a market top is likely to occur between Aug 10 to 26, 2013 (according to theorem #1) and the initial sharp decline after this market top occurs should be completed by Sep 9, 2013 (according to theorem #2) at the latest.

    With regards to the chatter about what occurs in Oct, well IMHO it might be slightly too early to define what happens then until you see how late Aug to mid Sep unfolds first. But I am presently leaning towards a scenario where this late spring to early fall pattern is one of selling distribution and potentially a drawn out head and shoulders possibility. If that is the case then the May 22 top would be the Left Shoulder, the mid to late Aug top(?) is the Head, and a final rally into the early to mid Oct period would form a lower high and mark the Right Shoulder. Penetration of the neckline downward would likely lead to a more significant double digit range correction or even a crash.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So many possibilities.. Im liking this site more with everyone giving their analysis. Great work guys.

      Delete
    2. I lucked out and was able to locate the comment from a May 2013 post ... it was by Gannman.

      http://planetforecaster.blogspot.ca/2013/05/equities-june-turn-dates.html?showComment=1370099978596#c110044263629394941

      Delete
    3. Too bad everyone is wrong most of the time mp. Just noise.

      Delete
    4. Beans Fried and Fried AgainAugust 1, 2013 at 12:30 AM

      No doubt that forecasting the stock market is one tough gig. Been fried many times.

      Delete
  16. Awakening888, I concur with your prediction and analysis

    @apanalis

    ReplyDelete
  17. Regarding mahendra I read over a year ago the asx would go to 10,000 I'm not old but I can safely say that wont happen in my life time

    ReplyDelete
  18. Personally I think Mahendra is a fraud. I subscribed to his services for one month back in 2011 to see if he was any good and he got every single call wrong. I lost a lot of money trying to follow his astrological investing advice in just one month. If I had done the complete opposite of what he said then I would have made money - and that's the truth. He was wrong regarding gold & silver, the S&P 500 and oil during that one month period.

    Just recently in his June 9, 2013 weekly financial letter that was put up for free on his website he stated regarding coffee - "we don't see coffee going below $124.50 in any circumstances" and "from June 2013 coffee prices will start moving higher."

    Well coffee prices have not moved higher in June and July and, in fact, coffee did fall below $124.50 which according to Mahendra was not going to do so under any circumstances. In fact, coffee fell at one point down to the $117 area.

    Even when he gets a call right his timing is so horrible that it's useless. For example, when I read his free stuff on his website back in 2008 Mahendra was telling people to short oil. That would have been great advice around late June/early July when crude oil was trading around the upper $130 - $140 range. But he was telling people to short oil way back in early March when oil was still trading around $100 - a whopping 4 months before oil peaked and finally began to decline. Who would have held on to a 35% or more losing short position in oil for 16 weeks or more to see if he was eventually - maybe - correct?


    ReplyDelete
  19. From my perspective there appears to be two distinct camps with regards to USA stock markets outlook. One camp believes it to be presently on the cusp of another potential irrational exuberance parabolic move similar to 1994-2000 and have targets around 3500 for S&P500. The other camp believes it will be reaching a peak imminently and that a significant decline is about to unfold for the next several years, culminating in a retest of the Mar 2009 low.

    With regards to Cowan's research, according to his 17-year cycles, 1983-2000 was a bull sector and 2000-2017 is a bear sector. The thing that throws many people off is that since S&P500 is at historic highs in 2013 and rising since spring 2009, how can it be even interpreted as "bearish"? Bearish is obviously to be interpreted loosely as not rising (i.e. down or even sideways will suffice). So far the peaks of 2000, 2007, and Aug 2013 are approximately similar and if a significant decline does occur soon causing a major change in trend for the next few years, then essentially the USA stock market would have done "nothing" for any folks who invested starting in early 2000 at the beginning of this "bear" cycle.

    Of course timing in this gig is absolutely critical and even if you are "correct" about a big decline to occur, anyone shorting the USA stock market even in Mar 2013 would have incurred significant drawdowns and be in a world of hurt as of right now. Can you imagine someone short NASDAQ at mid-1999 around 2600 only to watch it soar to 4800+ by early-2000 and then to watch it tank to below 2000 by early-2001? It was the correct analysis and only off by about 8 months relative to a 15+ year cycle which is quite good, but irrational markets can literally ruin you in the short term!

    ReplyDelete
  20. MP,just wanted to let you know that your blog has become daily reading for me.

    Platy, thanks for all your great work!

    ReplyDelete
  21. I should also note that September 22 is equinox.

    ReplyDelete
  22. I think the odds are high that we will see a short to intermediate term peak in U.S. interest rates tomorrow. For my perspective and analysis see my post in my blog.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Jay. I tried to follow the link to your blog, but it days I need an invitation. I've appreciated your work where I've seen it. Any chance for an invitation?

      Delete
  23. Perhaps some of these astro dates might result in minor swings. But, it is clear from pure technical charts that this market wants to go high and will continue to do so for at least another year. No crash in 2013.

    ReplyDelete
  24. There are only 3 Jupiter-Mars Helio conjunctions since 2009, not 5. Please check.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You are right, thank you! Fixed.

      Delete
  25. I enjoy reading this blog & thanks for sharing your work Platy!
    Although I don't use astrology in trading decisions I do find it very interesting as a way to compliment or perhaps fine tune technical analysis. Earlier this year I looked at the Dow & S&P 500 long term charts going back to 1900 for the Dow. There seems to be a 6-7 year rhythm for trend change reversals. It doesn't happen all the time however enough to be cautious this year to be fully aware that a top of importance could be this year.
    Here are the visual charts to show the cycle in action over the course of 100+ years

    http://midvilleresearch.boards.net/thread/4/6-7-yac-return-2013

    ReplyDelete
  26. Lots of great inputs. Thank you everybody for sharing your work and observations!

    ReplyDelete
  27. Until 2012 my scenario was 1966-83 pattern for the Dow Jones, but The Federal Reserve altered and distorted Dow Jones cycle and the economy, we must regard 1906-23 pattern, this is the model that better fits with the current situation.

    But there is an obstacule, never before from the bottom to the crest consumed more than 3 years with +-100% rising process.

    The 90-100 years cycle from 1929 point out to 2023 as a great top ( next to 1720), so the current point is similar to 1906-23 time frame, and even more, the 300 years cycle, from 1720 is pointing out to 2023 .

    Never is the same structure, but you can find similarities btw 1909-23 to 2000-17 in the current structure.

    The upward wedge would take Dow Jones to 16.000-17.000 +- and after will se a enormous drop about 40-50%, even more to the 2009 bottom.

    The other scenarioo is likely S&P 1980 top, after 1966-80 with a retracement about 30-35% at least to touch the monthly MM200 as then.

    You can see my chart, with similarities with the 1909-16-19 wedge in a spanish forum>http://forosdebolsa.com/foro/foros-de-bolsa/1108987/upward-dow-jones-wedge-as-1909-16-19-pattern/

    @apanalis

    ReplyDelete
  28. Gold/silver may be putting in a low today. Yesterday was a Neptune cycle for silver.

    If gold can climb to ~1450 it should be a good short (wave 4 up) with 5 down at around 1050.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That's not a prediction btw, it's just a possibility I'm thinking about. I think people mistake my thinking out loud for predictions. Gold looks like it will put in a nice doji today so the first hurdle is to see if today's low holds.

      Delete
  29. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

      Delete
    2. platy and rotrot, how can we interpret this radical change in Armstrong´s forecast? Thanks.

      @apanalis

      Delete
    3. a unit is 1/8 of 785 cds = 98.125 cds. so possible lows before the rally into 10/1/2015 (as per Armstrong) are:
      11/13/2013
      2/19/2014
      5/28/2014
      9/3/2014

      Delete
  30. Given the confluence of cycle dates pointing to an August top being tracked here and on Jay's blog, I found this warning issued to me today by the Department of State's STEP (Smart Traveler Alert Program) relevant. I signed up for this 2 years ago before a trip to Central America. To date this is the first time I've ever received a warning from them:

    "The Department of State alerts U.S. citizens to the continued potential for terrorist attacks, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, and possibly occurring in or emanating from the Arabian Peninsula. Current information suggests that al-Qa'ida and affiliated organizations continue to plan terrorist attacks both in the region and beyond, and that they may focus efforts to conduct attacks in the period between now and the end of August. This Travel Alert expires on August 31, 2013."

    http://www.travel.state.gov/travel/tips/registration/registration_4789.html

    Could be nothing, or could be a very disheartening event catalyst the cycles foretold that finally trips the markets out of their comfort zone.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wow, I was thinking earlier today that if this is a turnaround for gold, it could be due to the saber rattling from Iran today.

      Delete
    2. http://travel.state.gov/travel/cis_pa_tw/pa/pa_6042.html

      Posted the wrong link above. After reviewing the website I see they issued similar warnings in different parts of the world in February 2013 and July 2012 that equities shrugged off. I only happened to notice this one come across due to the focus on the August turn dates.

      Delete
  31. i think the S&P is going to see 4200-4300 before a crash, my guess for that final top would be Oct of 2015. the market will surprise everyone as it continues to rise in the face of chaos. All that capital from the bond market and the european market has to go somewhere my guess is the lesser of two evils which would be the american market. the low on oct of 2011 at 1074 *4 = 4296.
    12 months *4=oct2015. also happens to line up with armstrongs ECM for a top in OCT2015.
    Gann square 9
    Mar31,2000 to Oct 31 2002 = 944 near the north vane
    Oct 31 2002 to Oct31 2007 = 1826 near north vane
    oct31 2007 to mar 31 2009 = 517 near north vane
    Mar31 2009 to Oct3 2015 = 2377 north vane.
    of course there are other dates between now and oct15' that line up on the north vane.
    oct 2013, apr &sept 2014, Mar 2015
    also i am using a monthly chart to go back in time, i realize that the low in 09 was actually in the first week of march not the 31st as i have used.
    just something else for people to mull over not saying i am right.
    this site is excellent i enjoy reading Platys and everyone elses posts as well, great stuff. Also thank you platy for allowing anonymous people to post.
    SP

    ReplyDelete
  32. I did some time fibs and based it a longer term chart with a starting point on major highs and major lows. I concentrated on most which lands on a time fib arriving on 2013, and noticed some of the last time fibs and its origin.

    http://tfaat.blogspot.ca/2013/08/time-fibs.html

    ReplyDelete
  33. Why is Martin Armstrong so loved and listened to at this site? That guys predictions are all over the place. Mostly wrong and flip flopping on a daily basis. His work is interesting and while he may have been great b4 going to jail, his recent stuff is nothing more than intellectual sounding verbal diarrhea. Can someone send me some links that show otherwise?

    ReplyDelete
  34. Please readers criticism is fine but it can be done respectfully.

    ReplyDelete
  35. sorry platy. Just couldn't help myself. Spent so much time reading this guy's stuff trying to understand the hype about him and his blog and such. But after seeing him flip flop AGAIN, I couldn't hold back.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No problem, I get it. He has done a lot of great work but nobody has all the answers and it is a mistake to put too much into any one person or any one method.

      Delete
  36. In all fairness to Mahendra Sharma, over the years I have subscribed he was made a ton of great calls. In the past year, I believe he has made even more profitable calls. No astrologer is perfect, and yes, the coffee trade has not worked to date.

    ReplyDelete
  37. The latest COT data has the funds (the trend drivers) increasing their long positions by 25,236 contracts and decreasing their shorts by 13,496.

    ReplyDelete
  38. Patterns....

    http://tfaat.blogspot.ca/

    ReplyDelete
  39. http://m.futuresmag.com/2013/07/10/unlocking-the-secrets-of-gann-will-the-market-cras

    Courtesy of Chartrambler

    ReplyDelete
  40. The Japanese stock market looks very promising. The 2008 November low may have marked the end of the bear market that began in 1989. I have posted an analysis of the Nikkei 225 Index on my blog.

    ReplyDelete
  41. I have made some long term technical charts that may validate the astrological view that a top or at least a strong correction could be in the cards for this market within the next few weeks. Many indices are at what I believe at a critical juncture.
    http://midvilleresearch.com/

    ReplyDelete
  42. Based on the starting point of Nov 16 2012. The Gann Wheel has predicted the turning points within a few days to current date. How awesome is that. Next Date.. Aug 17. Also Cowan's Date.

    http://tfaat.blogspot.ca/2013/08/gann-wheel-dates.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jupiter Saturn moves 15 degrees from the 11/16/12 low to 8/16/13.

      Delete
    2. !!

      Love your name creativity Mr B!

      Delete
  43. Forgot to mention that 8/16/13 is about 1 full Mars Cycle from 10/4/11 low. Platy, you had mentioned in a post on 10/3/11 that Mars was at the 94 degree Pentagram Point. Stocks made a low the next day.

    ReplyDelete
  44. Tomorrows date looks like it will be a low of some sort. EW looks to be on a expanded flat... with C wave of that flat progressing as we speak. An acceleration to the upside to finish the 5th wave could have us end it all for a multi week high at the time of Aug 17 range just as most analysts here are expecting a reaction to happen.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://www.businessinsider.com/suns-magnetic-field-is-about-to-flip-2013-8?pundits_only=0&comments_page=1#comment-5202751beab8ea9862000043

      Delete
  45. Highs are already in, imho http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It's looking that way. Short term oversold, so maybe one more shot at the highs like MP suggests.

      Delete
    2. Agreed, we should see a secondary High first

      Delete
  46. Futures will probably tag 1670 (SPX 1675) before going up again.

    I'm very bullish metals right now.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Hey Platy,

    Equities and Gold have been trading inversely since Sep 2011. Now we have a turn date for both in the next 10 days.

    You said above that your "possibility not prediction" is that gold tops at 1450 on the same day (plus/minus few days) as equities top at 17XX. This is getting very confusing given the inverse relationship. Something bothers me that both are going to top. One or the other...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I changed my mind about when the most important day in August is for metals. Please see this post. I had not thought Neptune cycles were predictive, but now I do. So I think the Aug 24 date is probably more important than Aug 19 for metals.

      Also we should think about price. Metals need a strong rally to make a 4 up before the final 5 down. A 4 up similar in length to 2 up puts gold at about 1450. So we have both price and time targets to monitor.

      I think equities will be bullish going into the 17th but we may have already seen the top. Around the 17th should be a good time to go short IMO. Until then, probably mostly choppy.

      Delete
    2. In other words, we might be getting the right shoulder of an H&S on SPX on the 17th rather than a higher high.

      Delete
    3. My own charting projects that mid-Aug will be an interim top for precious metals after a choppy rally from this week and that additional upside will be somewhat limited at this point. If GDX continues to mirror another chart that I have been following for the past several months, then it should/possibly have a bearish downleg from mid-late Aug to mid-late Sep (approx one month) to (successfully) retest the 52-week low.

      I know this is unbelievable but gold/silver is in the process of forming a bottoming pattern and that is always a very drawn out ordeal. But the June 2013 lows should hold, at least in the visible near term of several months.

      Delete
    4. Platy, Your projection for a metals top on 24 Aug aligns with one possible pivot date I wrote about for Gold in my blog. Specifically, I wrote, "The downward move in GLD seems to have been temporarily arrested. The low on 6th August did not occur on the fixed cross. It is likely that we will see a rally now until we reach the next date on the fixed cross. The likely days for a top are 16th August when GLD will be 315° from the 28th June low and 24th August when GLD will be 45° from the 28th June low."

      Delete
    5. Thanks Awakening and Jay!

      Jay I love it when we come up with similar conclusions using completely different techniques!

      One more note about equities --
      The Jupiter-Mars conjunction is at a Nasdaq 72° harmonic and we are seeing Nasdaq having relative strength, which makes sense. So it could happen that the Nasdaq rises into a higher high even if the S&P doesn't.

      Delete
  48. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-08-08/marc-faber-todays-1987-redux-market-may-drop-20-or-more

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/marc-faber-sees-1987-crash-approaching

      Faber is like a broken clock.

      Delete
    2. To me it seems that stocks head down mildly into mid Aug, rather than topping.

      Delete
  49. The tide is turning. The latest COT data has the funds exiting 40,524 long contracts and going short by 40,978. The commercials exited 57,330 short positions and went long by 20,346 contracts.

    ReplyDelete
  50. Platy,

    Great stuff. Thank you!

    So what you're saying is that equities top on the ~16th and gold tops on the ~24th and then both crash together?

    Hmmmmmmmm....

    Some food for thought: Silver has already made 5 waves down to $18.5. If gold crashes to ~$1000, silver will go to $12 and GDX will do to $12. I can guarantee you that this bull is over then....no doubt. Silver's 5 waves has me little convinced that the correction is over.

    It's essentially do or die time for gold IMHO.

    Anyways, I take your planet turn dates very seriously and tend don't go against your calls and hence I'm expressing my concern of 24th is going to be the top for gold before we see sub-1000 prices.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks for your comments. I have the 24th as the most probable top date for gold but it could hang around near the top for a while (either before or after the 24th or both) before crashing. Also looking ahead there is a gold Neptune 36° cycle on Sept. 9.

      Delete
    2. Look at your silver counts.. The 5 waves do not look complete with silver missing a subwave to the downside.

      Delete
    3. Metals remain a fascinating thing to watch, although I've personally struggled to trade them this year.

      Certainly, they look set for continued strength in the very near term, but no way are the lows in on a multi-month cycle.

      I'm still looking for Gold 900$, and that would equate to Silver 12/10. That would be one hell of a buy for the next multi-year rally, especially for the 'physical stackers'.
      --

      *hey platy, thanks for adding me to your links list. I've also been updating the links this past week, as some of the 'old timer' chartists have quit/moved on.

      I can only hope the next few months will offer some good trades! VIX in the 20s would really help!

      Delete
    4. Hi PB :) Yeah we should be getting some major reversals before too much longer but I'm not really wishing for it if you know what I mean. :/

      Delete
  51. I love the gold sentiment on this board. So happy to hear that everybody and their mom are short gold and/or are expecting sub-1000 prices. I can happily back up the truck now that everyone is sh*t scared to touch it and even better news is that fact that everyone is so certain of gold sub-$1000.

    EW can be interpreted 1 billion waves. So wave 1 or wave 1 billion doesn't mean anything...

    The gold fever now is just like Aug-Sep 2011 in equities when everyone was so certain that we were going to head back down to 650.

    I will price action do the talking and right now we're as bullish as it gets.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I never said it was going sub 1000. Neither am I short right now.

      Delete
    2. Anon, I'm glad you're so convinced that gold is going much higher and the time is ripe to, "back up the truck".
      I for one still see way way too many investors willingly calling the bottom in gold and champing at the bit to jump back in.
      As far as I am concerned not until every last player in the gold market, past and present, has been completely demoralised will we have witnessed a lasting bottom.

      There is a massive global dollar short position(via debt) that has to be unwound before gold can take off on another sustained leg higher.

      Delete
  52. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-mom-and-pop-buy-stocks-its-time-to-sell-2013-08-12

    ReplyDelete
  53. So much noise. We should keep track of the commentators track records so we will know who to ignore. Aside from jay and Platy, does anyone have a track record of being right 10% or higher?

    ReplyDelete
  54. Good stuff Beetlejuice! Hence we call it market.

    It doesnt matter how right or how wring you and I are...as long we all keep our loses small and wins big.

    I went long when gold bounced off 1272. A close below 1272 implies much lower prices as you say. My stop is right at 1272. A close below 1272 and I will back up the truck the other way :) I need to make money regardless of how I feel now.

    A close over 1350 would complete a series of lower lows and higher highs (which is the definition of a bull market) and then shorts will get squeezed even more. Hence I expect a a battle between 1350 gold and 1272 gold.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Jay and Platy,

    Hello!

    I have only one question: how can August 16 be a top for equities if stocks already started a move to the downside?

    Or maybe a huge shorts-squeeze is preparing until the end of this week ????

    Thank you,

    Valerie

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Valerie,
      IMO, it can be the low near the top, i.e. a low associated with a top, or maybe the "last low" before a final top. If seen on a longer term weekly or monthly chart, 8/16 as a low is indistinguishable from a top, so can basically be seen as a top. Also, Mars-Jupiter can be one of many cycles associated with the top. Right now (4:22am PST, 8/14) stocks are in a wedge pattern trying to deciding which way to break out. The S&P seems to be having a downside bias making lower lows since 8/2, thus possible downtrend into the Mars Jup Conjunction.

      Delete
    2. The Nasdaq is most sensitive to the Jupiter-Mars conjunction since it occurs near the Nasdaq's 72° harmonic. Therefore, we should see a major high for the Nasdaq near the 17th. The S&P and DOW will likely move up into this date as well, even if they don't make higher highs.

      Delete
    3. Thank you Ms. Platy and Mister B.!

      Valerie

      Delete
  56. Its looking reasonably good for another little top into the Friday opex.

    Interesting to see some of you with a suggested turn around this weekend.
    ---

    *no sig' QE from next Mon-Wed. So..once again, bears have another window of opportunity.

    So long as we are <sp'1700 late Friday, I think it will merit another short-index trade into next week.

    Best case..looks to be downside to the 1660/50s.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agree PD. Maybe even a drop to 1570.

      Delete
    2. Am hoping for a bottom at 1660s tomorrow or monday. Then it's surge time til Oct or nov

      Delete
    3. I meant choppy action til mid Sept, then it's upward surge time til Oct or Nov

      Delete
  57. Gann thought that prices and planetary longitudes that were perfect squares of integers were important. We now have a situation where many geocentric longitudes in a narrow time band are perfect squares. Read more about my observations here.

    ReplyDelete
  58. I have posted to my blog projected prices for the S&P 500 Cash Index for the 16th August top based on an analysis of the geocentric aspects that occurred during the Solar Eclipse on 10th May.

    ReplyDelete
  59. In my comments on July 30, I calculated the S&P could hit 1725 on September 20 and set out my reasons.

    Since then I have found a new way to convert price to time. See the chart at:

    http://www.flickr.com/photos/97307769@N06/9515010092/

    The resistance level is 1724 and was determined from the low of 3/6/2009 to the high of 5/6/2011.
    The time extension is calculated from the low price of 777.75 on 7/10/2009 and the high of 1388 on 3/30/2012. The price converts to time on September 25. My analysis has proven to me this method is highly accurate.

    Confirms Jay's price but not the date. Moreover, it confirms my calculations on July 30 may have some merit.

    If anyone wants details on how to convert price to time leave a note.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks, Chris. I would like details of the price to time conversion.

      By the way, I also use other methods to relate price to time including Gann Square of Nine, Gann Hexagon Chart, the Gann Circle of 24 Chart, my own version of the logarithmic spiral, and Don Fisher's Dynamic Gann Levels. The key is figuring out what works consistently for a given market. I plan to conduct a more extensive study on this when time permits.

      Delete
    2. Interestibng Chris, how I can get the detail of calculation, that sound interesting.Thank you.HM2535

      Delete
    3. I use amongst other things, Metastock and getting the correct, or close to, a good chart scale can be a challenge. That said, the daily charts seem to be very accurate. Amazing really.

      I came across these free articles at:

      http://www.michaeljenkinstradingresources.com/TraderTips.htm

      for books go to:

      http://www.StockCyclesForecast.com

      Good luck.

      Delete
  60. I should also clarify, that the chart is not saying that on Sept 25 (or that week, as it is a weekly chart)the S&P will be at 1724. 1724 is just a very significant resistance level.

    Further, equinox is on September 21, and that 1722 is an active octave harmonic level.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sept 17-18 is a triple conjunction, Saturn-N Node-Venus, and also a Pluto-N Node-Ceres trine and also a DOW Uranus 18° cycle.

      Sept 22 is a Neptune-Ceres opposition and an S&P G Ceres 72° cycle.

      Delete
  61. platy, it does not look like Aug 16-17 is going to be a high at all, so could this be a low that will take the SPX to 1800? Could you please comment on whether the Jupiter Mars conjunction may actually be a low?

    Thank you

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes it's possible. It's also possible that Jupiter-Mars has simply lost its effect and something else is driving the markets right now.

      Delete
    2. Also, it could be that the turn date came today as a turn from sideways to down.

      Delete
    3. One thing I notice with these cycles is that sometimes it is an acceleration point. As our indicators hit the oversold on some time frames it is possible that this is what is transpiring.. Will keep an eye on this.

      Delete
  62. What happened to the gold forecast of Aug. 16th/17th being a low - and then buy of the century. What are these folks looking at to come up with such forecasts?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I changed that forecast many weeks ago.

      Delete
    2. Cycles inverted.

      Delete
  63. Looks like August 17th will be a low. Note that SP500 found support at Moon True North Node 360 Geo. Moon True North Node 360 Geo acted as resistance back in May. Now it looks like support.

    ReplyDelete
  64. 8/15/13 a low in stocks!? Venus Mars near 144 degree angle. 3 year, 1152 Venus Mars cycle from 8/25/10 low.
    1152 x 2 Venus Mars from 10/11/07 high.

    ReplyDelete
  65. I picked up along the way gold is due for 2 more smackdowns by the end of September ?

    cheers

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think it has topped yet. It's hard for me to project out all the way to the end of September. Let's see how it looks when we get the top.

      Delete
    2. Pluto turns direct on September 20. Look what gold did when Pluto turned retrograde on April 12.

      Delete
    3. Yeah good catch Chris! Seems like a lot of things lining up for around that time.

      Delete
    4. Note 9/18 FOMC meeting decision.
      Saturn Uranus is 135 degrees from 9/1/98 and 15 degrees from 10/4/11.

      Delete
  66. The next Time and Cycles (T&C) Cluster is on August 16-19 Low of the Month
    timeandcycles.blogspot.com

    ReplyDelete

]]>