Sunday, June 30, 2013

Equities July Turn Dates

A major top was put in on May 22, one day after our much discussed possible Beast Cycle top day.

Reviewing the equities June turn dates, the major dates identified were the 6th, 23rd and 29th.

The 6th was a low. I failed to recognize the significance of the Jupiter-Sun conjunction on the 19th, the day of the FOMC reversal. The 23rd was a low and a potential major bottom as discussed here. It appears that the 29th is giving a high.

S&P Futures

The July turn dates are given below. There are many important aspects in July so it is hard to identify which ones will be most important. This may imply choppiness for next month. I think the 17th/18th and the 22nd give the highest probability for major turns. July 4-8 has the potential to be a major turn because of the dollar's possible major turn on the 5th. U.S. markets close 1pm EST July 3, and all day July 4.

The July 22 Jupiter-Mars conjunction is also discussed here.


July 4: S&P G Ceres 72°
July 6: Jupiter enters Cancer
July 8: G Saturn turns direct; New Moon

July 12: S&P Mars 36°
July 13: DOW Ceres 72°
July 15: Nasdaq Mars, Saturn, Earth GT 18°

July 17: Nasdaq G Ceres 36° Square Moon's Nodes; G Uranus Rx 
July 18: Nasdaq G Jupiter 72°

July 22: Nasdaq G Jupiter-Mars Conj 72° Trine Neptune, Saturn; Full Moon

July 25: Nasdaq Saturn 18°

July 29: DOW G Ceres 72°; G Mars 36°



I may add charts later.


Addendum: JSE

For the benefit of my South African reader, the harmonics of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange are given below.

This chart is based on a natal date of November 8, 1887, 9am local time, obtained here. (I do not know the correct time, so I always use 9am as a default.)

Using this natal date, heliocentric Jupiter is at 16° Scorpio 19'09". These harmonics are very close to gold's. This seems appropriate because the JSE was formed in response to the gold mining boom in the country.


11/8/1887: JSE Natal
I have not back-tested these harmonics to see whether they have given good turns in the past, so this chart is given for experimentation only.

64 comments:

  1. Thanks for a detailed analysis...

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  2. Dear platy
    You are a star
    Just what I need
    And I think its the first wheel for ths JSE.
    I will experiment with it.
    Thankyou again for your trouble
    regards
    bob

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  3. Thanks, platy, one question, the Jupiter-Mars conj 72 the 22nd july´13 is the one expected in agoust´13 (17th Agoust´13?)? Thanks in advanced.

    @apanalis

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  4. I believe the July 22nd conjunction is geocentric, while the other is heliocentric.

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  5. Thanks, have them both the same influence? Jupiter with Mars have been pointing out the current cycle since march´09.

    @apanalis

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    Replies
    1. They are both important.

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    2. platy, sorry my insistence, 17th Agoust´13 was the date you provided las year and this new date was a suprising one.

      How do you intrepret the new one. Thanks.

      @apanalis

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    3. Anonymous answered above. July is geocentric, August is heliocentric.

      Please see:
      http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/2012/09/armstrongs-warning-about-august-2013.html

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    4. Ok, platy, thaks to remind me all of this, from end of July to beg. danger ahead for markets.

      @apanalis

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  6. The SPDR S&P 500 Fund (SPY) has 666,000 options traded, with puts outpacing calls by 2 to 1....gannman...hmmmm

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  7. You see platy
    You post a major research project on the JSE and the comments refer to the S & P
    No wonder I feel isolated ,trading here at the edge of the earth.
    Thanks again
    Wortk to do
    Your friend
    Bob
    South Africa.

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    Replies
    1. I was lucky enough to visit your beautiful country in 2009, an extraordinary adventure. I hope to go back some day!

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  8. Two suggestions. First the 1929 Uranus fractal. Briefly, the Sept 3, 1929 all time high before the crash re occurred on May 22, 2013...exactly 360* of Uranus plus 1 trading day later. Similarly, the first minor low (Oct 4, 1929) and the secondary high (Oct 11, 1929) have occurred exactly, to the day, one cycle of Uranus plus 1 TD on June 24, 2013 and July 1, 2013, respectively. The next date of importance is the first prominent low that occurred on October 29, 1929. It is scheduled to occur on July 17, 2013.

    http://screencast.com/t/rr8QDOrz89

    Second. For this fractal to work, there cannot be the higher high than July 1 that is projected by EWer's with an expanding leading diagonal triangle. I'd suggest there is a leading diagonal of a smaller degree and that the count in SPY and QQQ (I prefer actual traded instruments as opposed to averages) is:

    http://screencast.com/t/KWFfPgRR

    http://screencast.com/t/vP6qBFV9

    Again, if the markets make a new high above July 1, then the expanding diagonal is likely playing out. If the markets fall instead, then they may be in two sets of wave 3's that produced the 1929 crash.

    Reflect on this. The above table gives the first 4 hallmark dates that occurred in 1929, the first 3 of which have been realized exactly one cycle of Uranus plus one trading day apart. What are the odds of that occurring?

    And good luck,

    Jim

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    1. Great work!! Thank you Jim!

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    3. There has been some chatter of a possible crash in mid to late July and your astute observations only add further credence to such a scenario.

      One thing I should comment on is the percentage magnitude of the corrections/rallies between 1929 and so far in 2013. In 1929 the initial decline to the first low was -17%, the rally to the secondary high was +12%, and the crash decline to the first bottom (from secondary high) was -41%.

      The moves in 2013 are substantially less despite the much higher valuations which is odd. In 2013 the initial decline was -7% and the rally to 2nd top +4.3%. This is only 40% and 36% respectively of the similar moves in 1929. Assuming we do get a July "crash" then a mirrored percentage move implies a potential decline of -14.75% to -16.4% measured from the secondary high of July 1.

      What is quite fascinating is there exists a more straight forward method for one not versed in planetary alignments to calculate such a measured move. And that is take the Sep 14, 2012 peak and measure the time frame to the May 22, 2013 peak (~8.26 months). Then you take the Nov 16, 2012 bottom and project forward equal time period of ~8.26 months to calculate the date of an anticipated cyclical low which would be roughly Jul 24, 2013 and the price target of 1340-1350 matching the Nov 2012 bottom for a complete retrace. Maybe it can only hit 1380 since there is some support there.

      But for all of this to even be considered, first, there has to be a lower low of minimum 1600 either Wed or Fri this week latest. Otherwise, this just becomes an interesting "science project" that never panned out.

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    4. Just plain vanilla chart gazing (rather than star gazing) shows that the market looks like going up rather than down. Looks like new highs to me. Perhaps Cowan was wrong about the big one. Surely if there was going to be May 2013 crash, it would have already been more pronounced. Nothing more than a minor dip caused by Ben's tapering.

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  9. I really hope everyone is taking advantage of the cheap metals prices to get into physical. Yes it will probably go lower but we are close to the bottom and when the derivatives markets start to crumble the banks won't be bailed out this time. Paper/electronic holdings are at risk.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. platy, average "speculator" lost a lot of money "speculating" in the precious metals complex.

      the "gurus" have facilitated money loss of the crowd by encouraging to buy all dips on the way down.

      So i dont think anybody BUT the big money will really use this "tremendous" opportunity.

      just an outside observer. i have no interest in gold until i see higher highs and higher lows followed by meaningful break out.

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    2. People holding physical will be fine.

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    3. People who own solid gold were and will be fine anyway. Even if gold bull market did not exist.

      Its the average family that's screwed.

      Delete
  10. Jim,

    9/3/1929 - heliocentric Uranus - 7.14 degrees
    5/21/2013 - heliocentric Uranus - 9.06 degrees

    9/3/1929 - geocentric Uranus - 6.24 degrees
    5/21/2013 - geocentric Uranus - 11.24 degrees

    In either case, the move was more than 360 degrees. I am not sure how you can claim that the move was exactly 360 degrees.

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    1. Jay can you please re-check Uranus on 9/3/1929. I am getting 9°+ helio. I covered it here:
      http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/2012/09/may-21-2013-very-important-date.html

      I see about 10.5° geo for that date.

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    2. You are right Platy. I used British style date 3/9/1929 by mistake.

      Date Helio Geo
      9/3/1929 9.062344292 10.5317159
      5/21/2013 9.06378066 11.23936266

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    3. By the way, according to data that used to be on the Global Financial Data Web site a long time ago, the US stock marked peaked in Aug 1847 at a level of 2.94 and declined to 2.27 by Nov 1848. On 15th Aug 1847, heliocentric Uranus was at 15.63 degrees. So, clearly the 1929 parallel did not apply to the Uranus cycle that preceded the 1929 cycle.

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  11. 1929? The Dow Jones structure is similar to 1909-16-19 top and is the 3rd impulse from 1842 (prospections)> 1852/ 1874/ 1906>1919 peak and the final step was a parabolic high in 1929.

    Nowdays we are in the 3rd impulse from 1932> 1937/ 1966/2000> 2013 peak and the final step may be in 2023? in a parabolic high

    1720-1835-1929-2023? (90-100 years cycle) (300 years cycle from 1720 w be a desvasting end cycle with several Depressions like after 1720 with likley ending Capitalism).

    @apanalis

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. From 2017-18 to 2023+-, is the similar period 1923-24 to 1929 for me, with the 90-100 years-cycle and with the 300-y-c the end of an era, may be the Capitalism, like the 1720 historical peak.

      @apanalis

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    3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    4. It is obvious I do not trade in the short term.

      More than 90% traders loose money in the short term

      In Twitter you can find my thoughts in mid-term.

      @apanalis

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  12. Platy, or anyone else that cares to respond: is it possible that the heliocentric Mars/Jupiter conjunction in August marks some kind of low? I have been looking at both hits to the Pentagram and helio and geo planets, and I don't see how we don't start a move down shortly. Have a fun 4th everyone. Please remember to protect your pets from any firecrackers, etc.

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  13. Cash and futures both stopped at Gann line resistance, and SPX filled the upper gap.

    A drop early next week to fill the lower 1588 (or possibly 1573) gap would be a nice replay of the "dip" in the fractal shown here.

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  14. For what it is worth my calculations for the S&P are as follows.

    The next low might be on 7/19 at 1584. 1584 is 76.4% of the range from 5/22 to 6/24 and sits on the current trend line commencing from the low on 11/16/12. 1584 also sits on the Mars sextile aspect, which previously turned prices up on 4/18/13 and 6/24/13. The high on 10/11/2007 was 1586.

    The top should(?) be at around1706 on 8/21.

    Using trading day time counts the top should be around 188 TD's from the low on 11/16/12. We have had the following important trading day turning points from 11/16/12.

    L - 94 (4/5/13), 103 ( 4/18/13), 136 (6/6/13) and 149 (6,24,13).
    H - 63 (2/20/13), 126 (5/22/13) and if Friday last was the intermediate high 157 (7/5/13).

    (149-126) x 1.618 + 149 = 186
    (157-126) x 2 = 188
    (136-103) x 1.618 + 136 = 189
    63 x 3 = 189
    94 x 2 = 188

    Turning to the price, 1706 is 15.5 squares off the low on 3/6/09 of (rounded down) 666, and which is 5 squares off the low on 11/15/12 at 1709.

    The Mars opposite aspect sits at 1712 on 8/21. Mars opposite turned the price down on 5/22.

    1706(ish) comes in on the GANN 2x1 angle off the low on 2/25/13 and the 4x1 angle off the low on 7/24.

    GANN averaged the aspects of the 5 outer planets. The average H line sits at 1706

    Moreover, final rally in prices from 4/18/13 to 5/22 was at an angle of 50deg. If we project the same angle from the assumed low on 7/19 at 1584 we get 1706ish.

    Using the price for G Saturn on 8/21 of 217, 1707 sits on 270deg. 1704 likewise sits at 0deg on the circle of 24. And 1706 is exactly the SVL for the sun on 8/21 of 147.

    Placing the std. Fibonacci retracements from the low on 11/16/12 to 1706, the retracements fits perfectly. Lastly the projected high is very close to the 261.8% Fibonacci extenstion from the 11/16/12 low to the 12/18/12 high.
    In other words, lots confirming analysis.

    Good luck!!

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  15. From high of 2nd May 2011 in S&P500 to Martin Armstrong's Economic Confidence model's 2015.75 date is 1613 days
    ( 1618 days is 10/6/2015 ) .
    Dividing by 2 is interesting as it gives 7/17/2013 - 7/19/2013 . See what happens .
    John

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  16. I took some time to reread parts of Pentagonal Theory this weekend. I get the impression that the real big down cycle won't come until after the Jupiter/Saturn trine separates.

    The short-term really confuses me, as I could see going down into the 3rd week of July as much as I could see it going up into this date. I remember Cowan has the 19th listed in the book.

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    1. Call me a skeptic, but looking at the numerous forecasts made here, it looks like 99% of the calls are wrong. My 2 cents worth? there is no big down cycle coming. The market is heading up. Cowan still has May 23rd as the big one on his website. The market has hardly moved since then. So much for the 666 beast.

      The posts here are certainly interesting, in an academic way. But is anyone making $ here?

      Trade the market and not the forecast.

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    2. "But is anyone making $ here?"

      That's the elephant in the room.

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    3. I have been saying for a while that the bottom is in and we are going to new highs.

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    4. Here I said that the rally into the May Beast cycle would not be the final top.

      Here I said the bottom is in and we are headed for new highs.

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    5. @ Anonymous -

      My 2 cents worth. I can only speak for myself, but yes, I am making $ here.

      ANON

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  17. The market is heading up?, the same comments in 2000 and in 2007? Trade the market?

    @apanalis

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  18. A general note to readers:

    As I have said many times, the information provided here are clues only and nobody should be trading on these clues alone. The best use of this website is in conjunction with other methods. Many people have reported to me that this is the way they use it. If you are expecting the reported turn dates to cause turns every time you will be disappointed. And I don't catch every turn.

    It is premature to say whether or not May 22 was the final top. It may be, but I don't believe so, and we will have to see how things play out into the Jupiter-Mars cycles. August may be too soon. There are other cycles that should be considered as well, such as the Uranus-Pluto square.

    I don't give trading signals here. Much of my time now is spent away from the internet. I am paying less and less attention to the markets and have almost closed this site a number of times. I have kept it open because of reader interest. If the information provided here is not helping you, simply don't use it. If people generally are not finding this information helpful I will close the site. It is a lot of work.

    There are other topics I would like to get into. We are living in historical times for sure, and there is much more to talk about that does not involve the markets.

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    1. dont worry. you are doing a good job.

      it helps to have skeptics around though. it sharpens the mind. its all good.

      keep the site going.

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    2. I agree, skepticism is fine and healthy. It's the disrespect that bothers me.

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  19. Thanks Platy, for all good job and effort,your blog is look like my home which I check at least 10 time perday to read your valuable works, Jay and many other contributers. It is grately appreciated by many of us(Iam sure, how ever may be not posting all the time)but lots read it.Please keep going and do not lose temper.Thanks alot for every thing. HM2535

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  20. FOMC minutes & BB speaking tomorrow.

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    1. Another Rollercoaster... make sure every body your Seat Belts are fasten and tight :)) HM2535

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  21. Platy, Your site is great and unique and has many accurate and interesting insights, better than most other forums I have seen.

    The best way is take what is valuable to you and ignore the rest.

    Ignore the nay-sayers, there are plenty of them all over the internet, I never bother with them. Nobody's perfect and yet everyone expects one to be perfect, it is an illusion and people need to wake up.

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  22. Platy, thanks so much for all your efforts. Those of us who are regulars know how much you put into this blog!

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  23. The way stocks are rallying, the 5/22 high will be challenged sometime next week.

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    1. Let's see what BB says tomorrow. We may get some gaps filled.

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  24. Already seeing new highs for Nasdaq and Russell 2000.

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  25. BB speaks before Congress July 17-18.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-13/fed-s-bernanke-to-testify-on-monetary-policy-on-july-17-18.html

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    1. That should add fuel to the rally of the bulls

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    3. Thanks rotrot,is this copy past of your previous post?HM2535

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    4. Correction," your post in the past ":) HM2535

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