Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Gold/Silver: Late May Turn Dates

Gold and silver have moved mostly sideways for the past 2 or 3 weeks, but the April 30 turn date gave a reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend, May 2 reversed the trend back up, May 5 reversed back down, and today (May 7) appears to be giving a low.

The remaining May turn dates for gold and silver are given below.

On May 13, Mars conjuncts the Moon's South Node near gold's 36° (silver's 72°).

5/13/2013: Mars-South Node Conjunction and Gold Harmonics

On May 15-16 (near midnight on the 15th), heliocentric Venus will conjunct Jupiter near gold's 72° (silver's 36°).

5/15/2013: Heliocentric Jupiter-Venus Conjunction and Gold Harmonics

On May 17 - June 2 there is a geocentric Golden Triangle formed with Jupiter, Uranus and the North Node. All 3 of these are slow moving, resulting in the possible period of about 2 weeks in which this configuration might take effect. I have not yet tracked a GT with 3 slow moving objects before so I am not sure whether the beginning, ending, or mid point is most important, or perhaps all three.

The metals are sensitive to Golden Triangles and these objects are all crucial so this time period is likely to produce a major turn. What makes this GT even more interesting is that on May 28, Venus joins Jupiter, so this is very likely to be an important date, very possibly the most important within the 2 week range. Also at the time of the Jupiter-Venus conjunction, the Moon forms another GT with the conjunction and the North Node.

5/28/2013: Geocentric Double Golden Triangle and Gold Harmonics
Because of the importance of the planets involved and proximity to the S&P's 36° harmonics, this configuration is likely to impact equities as well, as discussed here.

22 comments:

  1. Hi Platy,

    Haven't posted here before but long time reader. I thought I would post my SLV chart which fits well with your turn dates. I use a combination of things but this is using EW mostly with some TA. I see us having been in a wave 4 triangle for the last few weeks since the lows and we should be reaching the end of it as shown in my chart. Next would be good decline for a 5th wave that would then coincide with a low with your next turndates. I've included on the chart green arrows which show the rough turn dates you've been posting for the metals and my interpretation of them.

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/36315931/Capture1.JPG

    Thanks for all the hard work you put into this blog.

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    1. Thanks a lot for the chart JG!

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    2. The other thing I just thought of is, as drawn, the triangle could extend out to your next turn date and then down into your May 28th major turn.

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    3. That fits closer to what I was thinking. Thanks again!

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  2. Beanz Beanz BeanzMay 7, 2013 at 8:13 PM

    5/11/13 is Saturn 54' from 11/20/08, 36' from 5/1/10, and 18' from 10/27/11. Might not matter.

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  3. We saw a large move up in the dollar today. I expect gold and silver are going to get hammered soon.

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    1. Excerpt from this Apr 27, 2013 post: http://astrologicalinvesting.blogspot.ca/2013/04/saturn-gold-and-wps-for-tsx-and-asia.html

      "We'll also take another look at gold. I had an email exchange with an Indian businessman during the week who is tipping significant reversals in gold prices on May 10 and 17, based on his interpretation of the Vedic aspects."

      Okay, my own analysis was to expect a top in gold/silver in the May 22-24 range based on the prior action/pattern from Feb 20 leading up to the mid-April collapse.

      However, after considering the above article, reviewing Jay's Heliocentric Planet charts, taking into consideration recent action up to May 9 involving the USD and gold/silver, and the fact that silver did not properly test the $21.45 Fib61.8% low (which also coincidentally was the 2008 high before the autumn crash) on the April decline, *AND* the fact that silver also did not properly retest the major $26.20 support level before the April breakdown, LEADS me to the following thesis:

      The May 22-24 date will likely mark a major interim top in gold/silver before the next big down leg. However, what will surprise and stun everyone will be the PATH it takes to eventually get there! Based on the above bodies of evidence, I believe it will be a crazy volatile ride from here to late May and here it is. Gold/Silver will turn down beginning May 10 to establish new 52-week lows within ONE week and it will likely be the Fibonacci levels that were not hit earlier. But on May 17 it will suddenly reverse sharply and spike to levels near $26 for silver and $1530 for gold also within ONE week to successfully back test those major resistance levels that were previously strong support. That should occur by May 24 and coincide with the Beast Cycle and also likely mark a final major high for S&P500 at 1666 to mirror the 666 low of Mar 2009.

      Jay, I have reviewed your May 3 gold/silver charts and this also seems to be what you are implying with your squiggles, but I am not completely certain since there are no prices and appears to be a trend or is it based on a starting index base unit? Your thoughts are welcome.

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    2. Anonymous, you really should search for my postings and read them carefully. The curve is a seasonal index based on an unweighted average return at each degree position of various planets. The process of constructing the curve strips the trend component. That is why there are no prices. The curve is useful to forecast turning points but since it does not include trends, its level at any given point in time is not indicative of prices. That means, it is strictly misleading to compare relative levels of the seasonal index and draw conclusions on relative price levels although it is often the case that they are correlated.

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    3. Hi Jay,

      I'm a different Anonymous than the one above but I'm going to take advantage of you being here today and ask you to be so kind and answer my question from the previous post because I find it very important:


      My point is that I'm not sure whether to prefer curves with the slowest bodies or not. DJIA: Uranus made only 1.4 orbits around the Sun since 1896. Gold: Saturn made only 1.4 orbits around the Sun since 1971. On the other hand, it is probably reasonable to assume that gas giants should have the main effect on financial instruments from all the planets.

      Do you personally incline to prefer the DJIA model using Mercury through Uranus, or Mercury through Chiron please? And London Gold model using Mars through Saturn, or Mars through Jupiter?

      Many thanks!

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    4. I think all the planets are relevant. The more important question is how do you weight their seasonal index values. Unfortunately, I don't have an answer to that question and this is why I just use an equal-weighted average.

      Regarding the use of outer planets for which there is limited data - I agree that it is not reasonable to draw conclusions from them. At least in the case of DJIA, I was able to corroborate the behavior with respect to Uranus by looking at the curve for the stock market since 1800 using annual stock prices. I had posted that analysis previously.

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    5. Jay, Thank you very much!

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    6. Jay:
      I admire your research. Do you have your charts of gold/silver also from the start of the secular bull (around 2000) pls? Or at least behaviour in the 'problematic' year 2008?
      Thx, David

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  4. Are you expecting a corresponding drop in the Euro?

    rotrot

    P.S. Established a WordPress account...however, repeatedly get the message "Your OpenID credentials could not be verified" when attempting to post.

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    1. Rotrot, I get the same problem when I have not logged in (top right) before posting comment. Not sure if this is the problem..

      Chris

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    2. Explicitly log into WordPress account before posting in a separate tab ( browser). This happened time too.
      -magnetpal

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    3. Logged into WordPress...however, still get the message!

      rotrot

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  5. I expect the Euro to be trashed in the next few years thanks to the policies being followed in the EU. It is up up and away for the dollar. Also the Japanese government policies have not been helping the Yen which is another reason that dollar has been doing well. The strong dollar is also a negative for most commodities since a strong US Dollar is deflationary and most of the world's commodities are priced in dollars.

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    1. The Euro will decline relative to a strong USD and the two big recent moves (May2 & May9) also show up in the Euro weakness. Consider EUO (NYSE ETF 2x short Euro) and the chart indicates a range breakout.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EUO

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    2. Jay, I think you have nailed it. Strong dollar is to stay for a while. Its no coincidence gold started falling last sept when Yen started weakening. Politically, japan is well known to be a puppet of USA. Bernanke needed weak yen when qe3 was released to prevent dollar weakening which in turn would push higher commodities prices and inflation. It would be naïve to think USD strength is freely determined by market force. Its a world reserve currency as one should remember and USA would protect its status with his own power.

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    3. All the markets are connected. With the strong dollar, there is no incentive for the foreign governments to hold US bonds (see this for an explanation of the relationship between the dollar and bonds). So, I suspect they have been vigorously selling bonds today. However, if interest rates go up too fast, that will kill the weak recovery in the economy and ratchet up expectations on part of stock investors that another recession is in the offing. That will send the stock market down and there will be a flight to safety with bond prices heading up. However, expectations of a weaker economy will make things even worse for commodities as demand for them will fall. My guess is that if the dollar continues to strengthen, the Plunge Protection Team will have to coordinate with the foreign governments to do something about it or risk vaporizing the US stock market. I can't see the Japanese or the Europeans wanting to help the Americans this time as their weak currencies are good for their own stock markets.

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