Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Late April Turn Dates

Here are the remaining April turn dates for gold and silver.

Minor
April 16: Saturn-Venus Opp
April 18: Mars-Earth Opp
April 22: G Saturn-Venus Opp

Major
April 25: G Uranus 72°  (Gold)
The date for the Uranus cycle above may not be accurate.

Minor
April 28: Saturn-Earth Conj

Major
April 30: Ceres 36° (Gold)


Here are the remaining April turn dates for equities. 

Cluster of important events. Because they are clustered their significance is raised, and probably represent a single turn. Potentially major.
April 18: Nasdaq Mars-Sun Conj 72°
April 18: DOW G Mars 36°
April 19: Nasdaq G Jupiter-Saturn 144° apart @ 18°
April 20: Nasdaq G Ceres 72°

Probably minor
April 25: Partial Lunar Eclipse

Potentially major
April 28: S&P: G Venus Conj S Node 72°
April 29: Nasdaq G Jupiter 18°



Still no time for charts, sorry.

107 comments:

  1. Tomorrow is a geocentric Jupiter 72° cycle for the Euro.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Copper Update here. Looks like copper is having its turn on the metals meltdown.

    http://tfaat.blogspot.ca/2013/04/copper.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MP,

      Does this mean Oil is next? Do you have a target for oil?

      Agriculture crashed, cold crashed, silver crashed, copper seems to be crashing....Oil? Sugar? Coffee? Up next!

      I'm so confused...No idea what to do!

      Delete
    2. Any analysis I do is based on mid-term, short-term trends. My longer term trends are based on EW since better for longer-term outlook. As for WTIC (Crude). I believe we are in the process. Our mid-term indicators are down and it has been since early April. My target of 50 dollars is based on a breakout in April which is the same distance of the Head from its shoulders. This distance might not get us there right away, but my assumption is that it will eventually. But always follow the indicators to tell you what the real deal is.

      http://tfaat.blogspot.ca/2013/04/crude.html

      Delete
  3. Platy, Is the Jupiter/Saturn 144 aspect on April 19 bullish? Thanks so much for the blog!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Unfortunately this system does not tell me ahead of time whether an aspect is bullish or bearish. So we just have to see what direction markets are headed into them and then look for a reversal.

      Delete
  4. Bettlejuice:

    It appears that your target of 15 or lower on the GDX has to be respected based on the price action lately. Looks like sentiment and other indicators like RSI are not good indicators this time around. Do you a time objective for your target of 15?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. chak, just noticed your post.

      Here is the possibilty as I see it. Gold made a double top back in 2011.
      If you take 89 weeks from the first top you the final week of April. If you count from the second top you get second week in May.
      Why 89 you may be asking? 89 is very significant Fib #.

      So if we take last week of April that aligns with Platy's 25th date. However if we take second week f May that aligns with Jay's dates.

      To add if we look back to the bottom in gold in May 2012 + 360 days we get second week of May.

      Personally I think mid May. The way I see it we bounce a little first, possibly a week or so then get the final thrust lower to clear out the final bulls. Thens it off higher.

      Delete
    2. chak, I would just add that either way I don't think it really matters. If GDX gets to 15 or lower either final week of April or sometime in May I will be backing up the truck.

      Delete
    3. bettlejuice,
      With the miners already in panic mode it is surreal to think that they can fall by another 50% but sentiment and all other bottom forming indicators have been rendered ineffective during this crash.

      Delete
    4. And if gold tests $1k?.........not unthinkable at all imo

      Delete
    5. with gold and gdx so oversold technically, it seems very unlikely it can fall another 40% in 3 to 4 weeks without consolidations first. is there a time lag in these predictions?

      Delete
    6. Anon, read what I said

      "The way I see it we bounce a little first, possibly a week or so then get the final thrust lower"

      Gold just declined Nearly $300 in just over two weeks. Why so hard to believe that it could decline another $300 in 3-4 weeks?

      Delete
    7. beetlejuice,
      What type of action do you expect in the stock market during the next 4-6 weeks? A significant correction in the market may lead to the type of gold plunge to $1k that you are expecting.

      Delete
    8. Hi beetlejuice, when gold fell from 1600 to 1300, technicals were not at extreme level although oversold but now I think its so overstretch. have you seen any other instrument could fall like this before? how about in 70's gold correction?

      Delete
    9. also, percentage wise, its lot more from 1300 to 1000. I think you might be overshooting your target

      Delete
    10. I think gold and silver is more likely to consolidate for 1 or 2 months and then either resume uptrend or go lower. if anyone thinks its can go straight down to 1000 would need to provide solid reasons other than cycle prediction.

      Delete
    11. Technicals can, on occassions stay overbought and oversold longer than appears possible or rational, just as sentiment indicators have been blown out of the water with this decline. I had an email exchange with none other than Mr Moriarty of 321 several weeks ago when he called the bottom due to extreme pessimism and I told him "not so fast", gold shares have just broken down with much lower targets.
      He pretty much told me there was no way they could go any lower. Now look where we are.

      The target from the gold break down is just above 1100. I have no reason to believe that target will not be reached just as I believe the GDX target will not be reached.

      When do we get there? There is very little in the way of support down to that level and in fact down to 1000k. Markets go down way faster than they go up and over 30 years in the market has taught me to never say never.

      Cheers

      Delete
    12. while I agree that price can always go down. my point is when market has dropped this much in such a short time with all indicators so overstretch, it usually consolidates for sometime. I just don't see it likely to hit 1000 by mid may. maybe sometime later I don't know but may is really unlikely. have you seen any other instrument that have this kind of price drop that you predicted for gold?

      Delete
    13. can you provide any other instrument with overstretch oversold technicals like gold now and then drop another 20% in 3 weeks? i'm not saying its not possible but I haven't seen it happen before

      Delete
  5. Rosecast Market Timing - April 12, 2013

    http://www.rosecast.com/dis2013p2.htm

    ROTROT

    ReplyDelete
  6. Anonymous thanks for the link, if you haven't read Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory by Brad Cowan I think you would enjoy it. Your 23 degree point in Aries is a major point on the Great Pentagram which gives tremendous weight to your research. Thanks for the post

    ReplyDelete
  7. Also I don't want to leave out Platy for his mention that Jupiter crossed a quintile on it's pentagram today. It seems the geocentric crossings have a lot of validity. Thanks for the heads up

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Yoda, just to be clear the Jupiter harmonic today was for the Euro only... and I'm a "her". :D

      Delete
  8. heh heh well I feel foolish for the "his" slip, sorry
    thanks again

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No problem, happens all the time :)

      Also I just checked again on the Euro and here are 2 more important turn dates coming up:

      4/20/13: G Saturn 72°
      5/17/13: Saturn 72°

      Delete
  9. From Armstrong:

    The Dow is starting to get a little tired on the daily level. The Uptrend Channel rests at 14568. A daily closing below 14450 will signal a correction short-term. Volatility starts to rise next week. The Oscillators are confirming on the daily level the market its tired. The big turning point is due the week of 05/13. Caution is now necessary. A breach of the 14450 level will warn of a retest of support. The critical support lies at 13010-13070.

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/17/dow-getting-tired/

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi Platy,

    You were mentioning a while back that silver will come back into the low 20's before resuming higher. What's your target on silver here?

    And what about gold?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am looking for support at $21.41, which is both 61.8% retracement and 2008 resistance. Gold has 38.2% retracement at $1285. So I think these levels should be hit, and maybe pierced a little. If these levels are broken it could get a lot worse I'm afraid.

      Delete
    2. I would really defer to Jay for prices. He gave some targets in this thread if you haven't seen it:

      http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/2013/04/april-12-pluto-turns-retrograde.html?showComment=1366059028430#c1407892471360170294

      Delete
    3. Geez...that would be so scary! 99 GLD would confirm that this is the end of the gold bull market and we should short any rally!

      And Yea, GDXJ would go to $1 or $2!

      Delete
    4. I don't think that would be the end of the bull if it happens, just a washout low before the next crazy rally.

      Delete
    5. LOL...are you sure Platy?

      Maybe a deadcat bounce to 1200?

      Delete
    6. The bull is not dead. I'm sure.

      Delete
    7. Hi Platy, care to explain why you're so sure gold's bull is not dead yet?

      Delete
    8. So many reasons, where do I start...

      Armstrong, personal conversation with an insider, global money printing, etc etc

      Delete
    9. could you share what's Armstrong and your insider is saying? printing money already pushed gold up in 2011 so not sure if this will have more effects on gold

      Delete
    10. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/12/gold-reality-check-2/

      Insider is working on a global currency backed by gold.

      It all ties in to Biblical prophecy, which is all about cycles as Gann teaches.

      Delete
    11. I don't have much idea what Armstrong is saying

      Delete
    12. This is the part relevant to the conversation above:

      "I remain long-term bullish on gold"

      Delete
  11. April 29, 2013

    http://astrologyforganntraders.wordpress.com/

    rotrot

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi platy, looks like your significant 25th date may turn out to be a high. Gold is working slightly higher and appears to be forming a bearish flag and virtually all the Aussie gold stocks are looking bearish with both gold and the shares on declining volumes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For gold, the 16th and 18th were both lows. The next date is the 22nd which looks like it will be a high, forcing gold to a lower low on the 25th.

      Delete
    2. But the million dollar question is even if gold does decline next week leading up to the 25/26, is it going to be another catastrophic waterfall decline exceeding $100 to generate a new low or just a subtle decline? Some folks had targets of $1200 (or even lower) gold in this current down wave, but that would imply another two or three consecutive declines of $200+ just like last Fri/Mon.

      I find it difficult to believe since everything including general stock market, gold, mining stocks appeared to have bottomed out and looking like it wants to make a strong recovery bounce back here, but I am always with an open mind.

      Delete
    3. Awakening88, I agree gold and miners are so bombed out and should consolidate for a while. nothing goes straight down. I find the predictions for gold to go to 1100 by mid may is near impossible

      Delete
    4. guys, goldman has report on shale oil boom and gold bull market is over. if oil doesn't go up, gold is doomed long term

      Delete
    5. anon, the $1100 or $1200 prediction is actually forecast for NEXT week (Apr 22-26)! Mid-May is/was always a secondary back up time frame due to several different cycle dates provided and for margin of error in case nothing happens in late April.

      If it indeed happens then JAY with his GLD $99 target late April to mid-May made way BEFORE the last plummet in gold was simply an amazing forecast. I recall reading it early April and even if I did believe such a low target, which I was leaning towards though, I would never have believed it occurs in just four or six weeks!

      GLTA and I hope my gamble with some short term put options pays off in spades next week!

      Delete
    6. @Awakening88
      "I find it difficult to believe since everything including general stock market, gold, mining stocks appeared to have bottomed out and looking like it wants to make a strong recovery bounce back here".

      It is hard to believe unless you're looking at the right trend. The first thing to ask yourself is, what evidence constitute a strong recovery bounce? And ask yourself if that reason is a good enough reason and try to put holes in it. If its bullet proof then you will have a very strong conviction.

      The market is still on a downtrend and any rally is just a rally and will continue lower. When my longer-term trend changes, that's when a change in trend will occur. Reactionary trades are better than a hunch or a bet.

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    7. I know but its very likely gold's long term bull is over. US shale oil boom has killed gold's bull market. cheap oil and low gold price

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    8. Oil will go much higher soon.

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    9. Awakening88, my forecast here on 6th April was for $99 on the GLD ETF by late May/early June 2013. I also had an alternative target of $140 for September 2013. The really interesting development is that GLD has bounced off one of the geometric support lines. My forecast was based on the intersection of geometric support lines with a curve that tracks the price/time path of a shock. If we go sideways here, there is still the possibility that the $140 target in September 2013 may mark the end of the bear market and a bifurcation point in the price/time behavior.

      Delete
    10. no fundamental reasons to support oil to go much higher. cycle theory might get it wrong this time

      Delete
    11. its more likely gold will stay range bound until sept hitting 140 for Jay's target given the most extreme oversold in gold in 30 years already. you need to be logical when forecasting 100 GLD in a month. It already dropped 17% and how likely will it drop another 20% in few weeks? haven't seen any price can go straight down like that.

      Delete
    12. Jay, so your May/June prediction for GLD to hit 99 is not a going to happen? will there be new development that your prediction for gold to hit 140 in sept/14 also will not realize? so what's the prediction for if it needs to depend on some development?

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    13. people, I wouldn't short gold when its oversold the most in last 30 years. be careful about these cycle predictions. Jay is starting to change his tone on the predictions as I expected. also gold's bull market is also in question to be still alive.

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    14. Well, gold is bear flagging heading in to the next turn date Monday. The recent bottoms (Apr 16 & 18) were on minor aspects, not enough to stop a drop like this. So I'm looking for one more pop up Monday to short it, tight stops.

      Delete
    15. Anonymous, I am not changing my forecasts - I am just calling it like it is. I had two levels forecast and both are still valid forecasts. Nothing has invalidated either forecast. You might want to read the article The 6 Stages of Bull Market by Jeff Saut. We are probably at the stage labelled fear or desperation - definitely it does not feel like capitulation or despondency. There was disbelief in this blog when I first posted my projections and there is still a fair degree of skepticism. That tells me that notwithstanding the oversold condition, we are still not anywhere near a bottom. We might get a bounce but the jury is out on whether the bottom has been made.

      Delete
    16. one thing i'm sure, oil will not go higher. shale oil energy will increase oil supply. its already lowering oil price in US. cycle theorist may not like it but that's the reality. you need to look at fundamentals as well not just based on these astrology forecasts.

      Delete
    17. Jay, the stages in bull market is based on what? how do you identify each stage? by feel? that's not so reliable as everyone can feel differently. I hope that didn't forecast gold price based on feel.

      Delete
  13. Equities are finishing up wave 4 up. I think we should get 1 more leg down on Monday, then a rally into the 29th.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Jay,

    We are at 135 on the GLD. If GLD has bounced off one of the geometric lines, is it bearish? For GLD to get to 99 by early June, we would need to have one more major panic similar to the one we just had. Which price/time target are you leaning towards now?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Neither - see my response above.

      Delete
    2. Jay,

      I believe your expectation for the next domino to fall is the US stock indices with a probable end to the cyclical bull run in stocks since March 2009. This contradicts Jeff Saut expectations for a new secular bull in stocks that could last a decade. Also if march 2009 was the end of the secular bear, it would have lasted a mere 9 years which is probably the shortest in memory. Has there been any change in your framework of expectations with respect to the stock markets going forward?

      Delete
    3. forecast is like fortune telling. people should focus on fundamentals which are not hard to understand. to drive gold price lower, you need to have more bad news like china gdp slowing down further or Europe CB is selling more gold. when you see that, you know gold will fall further. I challenge Jay to provide his historical performance in his fortune telling or forecasts as he states it. why pay attention to someone to tell you something based on thin air?

      Delete
    4. to drive stocks lower, you need much worse corporate earnings, US housing market slowing down again, QE is ending... etc

      Delete
    5. Jay's track record speaks for itself. He has been making successful calls here for months. A very large part of the readership here comes for Jay's work, not mine.

      Delete
    6. Platy, Jay might be right in last few months but that doesn't mean he'll always be right. we'll see in couple of months

      Delete
    7. Given your views on forecasting why would you be hanging around a site like this?

      Delete
    8. Its good to see other views and I don't mind being challenged about my views. I think if astrology investing is valid, you need to provide quantifiable results.

      Delete
    9. Anonymous

      Jay is right on the DOW since his first comments here. Me thinks that was around early 2012.
      Not a single wrong call.
      That is not just since a moon or two. That's just astonishing.

      The first Gold projections are from early this year.
      After 3.5 more months in the meantime we can see that also these gold forecasts turned out to be spot on.

      So - just let us know your projections going forward.

      In any other case (no forecasts from your side) your arguments might be correct - but quite obviously Jay has something very useful to offer - while you offer just critic based on VERY THIN air. But again - provide something useful too.

      As otherwise - you will just sound like someone who has an agenda - which is to try to discredit Jay. Or maybe even worse: to try to silence him down.

      So far just made money on Jays call - looking forward though to also make money on your calls.

      And we are all well aware here - that there are also individual cycles - so no surprise if at some point Jays calls will not be that accurate anymore. That's how life works - up and downs, yin and yang, dark and night, those that offer creative help and those that have nothing useful to share.

      Delete
    10. I'm not sure what Jay's forecast is now. see below. if gold moves sideways, its possible to hit 144 in may/june. what happened to his forecast of GLD hitting 99 in may/june? so is it going to be a sideways market or going to hit 99 in may/june, can Jay clarify?

      "My forecast was based on the intersection of geometric support lines with a curve that tracks the price/time path of a shock. If we go sideways here, there is still the possibility that the $140 target in September 2013 may mark the end of the bear market and a bifurcation point in the price/time behavior."

      Delete
    11. sorry i meant 144 in sept.

      Delete
    12. a forecast should be precise imo. not if this then that otherwise i wouldn't call it a forecast

      Delete
    13. Jay has been very clear. Please stop flooding my site with your unconstructive posts.

      Delete
  15. http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/04/19/gold-silver/

    http://peterlbrandt.com/flags-flying-at-half-mast-in-gold-and-silver/

    ReplyDelete
  16. Hi Platy.

    I have just come across an interesting article about sunspots and 2013.

    http://thewisemag.com/astrology/item/194-the-solar-and-planetary-cycles-and-world-trade

    Cheers
    Chris

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks Chris, looks really interesting - I'll have to study this over the weekend!

      Delete
    2. stockyard here;
      i read briefly majority of posts. those questioning gold forecast have not noticed
      a chart of the euro...big head and shoulder forming last 6 months...will surge dollar higher reducing gold / oil pricing...not my trading area but should be observed when questioning commodity price.

      Delete
    3. Thanks Stockyard, I agree about the Euro. Also April 17 and 20 were major turn dates for the Euro (Jupiter 72° and geocentric Saturn 72°), both highs, which fits as well.

      Delete
    4. platy, looks like the AUD is at decision point as well. Given the strong link between commodities and the AUD this doesn't fair well for global growth going forward.
      Look at long term copper. Where copper is going, recent breakdown(target 1.8000), AUD is likely to follow.

      Do you have turn dates for the AUD by chance?

      Many thanks :)

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COPPER&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p59020840572

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p90739601116

      Delete
    5. Thanks for the charts BJ. I haven't looked at AUD yet. If I get some time today I will.

      Delete
    6. Hi BJ, using the natal date 14 February 1966 for the AUD nothing stands out for a few weeks.

      Delete
  17. Jay,

    Appreciate your posts and understand your desire to remain anonymous...if Platy has your email, will provide her with two forecasts that she can forward to you...one by a renown cycle analyst (you will not find his work on the web) and another forecast generated by a relatively low key commercial concern...please let me know...

    rotrot

    ReplyDelete
  18. I concur with Jay´s projections, I don´t now if gold is heading to $100 in 1month on in 1 year but as I expalined we are in teh similar enviroment, and structure from 1975-76(...), 2011-13? a retracement about 0,5 fib from 2000 to 2011,($250 to $1924), -47%. In those days, from $25 in the 60´s to $197 in 1975.

    After the bottom in 103, now in $1000?

    The final or final push up to 8.000?

    Apanalis

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. anon, the $100 target is referring to the ETF GLD which would be equivalent to about spot gold at $1045.

      Delete
    2. anon, how do you know history will repeat? maybe this is the end of gold bull market?

      Delete
  19. Thought the rumour flash crash was interesting timing with the sun spot passing right over last night !

    ReplyDelete
  20. Do you refer the Flash-Crash dated the 22nd of March, that affect for some weeks?

    Is it over?

    Apanalis

    ReplyDelete
  21. By the way, platy, would you mind updatingthe may dates? Thanks a lot. We could see if the 5th may´13 is an important turn date, or closer.

    Apanalis

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sorry, I'm way behind in my work. May 5 is a DOW geocentric Ceres 36° cycle.

      Delete
    2. Thanks, platy

      Delete
  22. That anon is clearly trying to silence Jay with a hidden agenda. May be he want people to join his site and pay money for his so called predictions?? That is clearly the objective here.

    Jay, please dont fall prey to these naysayers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't want Jay to be silent. I hope he's right to be honest cos I want to buy gold cheaper. but having said that, reality is gold was so oversold that it seems unlikely to drop further unless there is financial crisis in china which will bring down the entire commodities sector and gold. when you have a situation like this, I was hoping Jay could confirm his forecast from other sectors such as commodities and china stocks. overconfidence in ones forecast may not be a good thing.

      Delete
  23. bettlejuice,

    Do you still expect GDX to hit 15 or lower? We may be running out of time with respect to your price objective before may.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. its not gonna to happen. I've never seen a major etf dropped 50% in a month

      Delete
  24. What are Jay's recent forecasts for the stock market?
    Can someone post a recent link?
    I am new here, i might have missed it.
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Please see this thread:

      http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/2013/03/march-16-uranus-mars-conjunction.html?showComment=1364138097326#c8362676528602522455

      Delete
  25. Glenn Neely who developed his NeoWave version of Elliott Wave Theory sent his gold analysis yesterday. His call is that that the bull market in gold that began in the late 1960s is over and we should see a retracement to the $1,000 level perhaps as early as this year. He views the last 5-wave movement as a 5th-extension terminal that began in 2005. When I asked him how likely was it that only wave 3 is complete, he replied that it was a possibility until recently but the large fast recent decline makes that a low probability scenario. While NeoWave is more objective than the original EWT, there is still a lot of judgment involved and the wave structure is often not clear until long after a formation is complete. I am more inclined to rely on how the 16-20 year 4-phase historical cycles (deflation, reflation, inflation, disinflation) have played out in the context of commodities and equities and believe the commodity bull market and in particular gold bull market has ways to go. We are currently in a deflationary cycle similar to 1929-49 when gold stocks did well. We will likely see wave 4 in cash gold overlap wave 2 which means a fall to around $1,000 or lower before the bull market resumes.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. After de the fall about $1000, what is next? a final up-trend to see new highs like 1976-1980 process, about $8.000.

      Remember from 425 to 197 and from 103 to $873/ from 250 to 1924 and from 1000? to 8.000?

      Thanks. Apanalis.

      Delete
    2. If we were in the final of the Gold up-trend from the 60´s we would see a drop about 47-48% (like in 1980 from $873 to $453) and after a big rebound, fib. 0,618-0,76.

      Which of both scenarios fits to you, the end in 1924 or the end in some years in $8000.

      Apanalis

      Delete
  26. It is looking likely that the markets will top out at the Apr 28-29 major turn window. Then I would expect SPX to return to the 1540 area, and finally one more stab at the highs sometime in mid-May.

    ReplyDelete
  27. Platy / Jay,

    As per the link given above by platy,
    http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/2013/03/march-16-uranus-mars-conjunction.html?showComment=1364138097326#c8362676528602522455

    the market peaks in may and will go down until sometime in late 2015. Is my understanding correct?

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete

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