Sunday, April 28, 2013

Gold/Silver: April 30/May 2 Ceres Cycles

The April 16 and 18 turn dates were both lows for gold and silver, which gave a minor high on the 22nd, and then rallied into the April 25/28 turn dates.

Ceres cycles have proven to be reliable medium term trend change indicators for the metals. There will be a gold heliocentric Ceres 36° cycle on April 30, and a silver heliocentric 72° cycle on May 2.

4/30/2013: Gold Heliocentric Ceres 36° Cycle
5/2/2013: Silver Heliocentric Ceres 72° Cycle

The metals are short term overbought and the recent plunge brought them close to important Fibonacci retracement levels ( 38.2% for gold, or ~1285; 61.8% for silver, or ~21.45) so this time period is a good candidate to see them dropping into these levels (likely breaching them briefly) and finding strong support there, at least for a while.

Notice how well silver honors its Fibonacci levels. Gold is similar.
Silver Futures
If instead the metals are able to hang on to their recent gains through the Ceres cycles, the next candidate for a major bottom is May 5-7 when heliocentric Saturn opposes Mars and heliocentric Earth, Uranus and Jupiter form a (loose) Golden Triangle.

5/5/2013: Heliocentric Saturn-Mars Opposition and Gold Harmonics
5/7/2013: Heliocentric Earth-Uranus-Saturn Golden Triangle and Gold Harmonics

ADDENDUM

 I did a quick study to illustrate the importance of the Ceres cycles, and to explore the effect of silver's Ceres cycles on gold and vice versa, since the metals are clearly impacted by each other.

In the following graphs, gold Ceres cycles are shown in yellow; silver in grey. Geocentric cycles are denoted with a "G" whereas heliocentric cycle are given by their harmonic value only.

Gold Futures
Silver Futures
The first set of Ceres cycles occurred August 25 (gold) and 27 (silver). This included a weekend, so the resulting turn date was the same for both, a high on the 27th.

In the second set, gold's cycle was November 27, and silver's was the 29th. In this case, gold's Ceres cycle gave the best turn date for gold, and silver's gave the best turn date for silver. After seeing this I assumed this would always be the case.

However, in the 3rd set, silver's cycle was on January 6, and gold's on the 9th. In this case silver's date gave the low for both.

In the final set, gold's cycle was on March 2, and silver's on the 6th. Both dates showed up similarly for gold, but gold's date was a better indicator for silver.

In conclusion, the Ceres cycle is clearly an important trend change indicator, but we should pay attention to both gold and silver's Ceres turn dates, because either one could provide the best date for either metal.

86 comments:

  1. Hi platy thanks for the update but I can't see 5 clear waves down from the 1600 level.
    That huge drop was 3, currently in 4 and five to come. I think GDX supports much lower lows

    Cheers

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  2. Sorry clarify that. I can't see 3 waves down. Only two thus far. Wave 5 to come.

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  3. bettlejuice,
    There are some forecasters who have the same target on GDX of 15 or lower as you have but over on extended period of time through October 2013. If we have one more wave 5 down, is it possible that your price target can extend through October or does the target have to be reached before may/early june?

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    1. chak, anything is possible but I think there is a very probability that it gets there the second or third week of May.
      Aussie gold stocks just continued their abysmal run the last two days and volumes continue to indicate more downside and most have bearish flags meaning lower prices again at any moment.
      I think there are still way way too many bottom pickers in the gold sector and gold stocks wont bottom until all morale and hope is detroyed.

      Cheers

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    2. bettlejuice,

      Yes, I agree that there are still many folks who are convinced the bottom is in. Thanks for your continued and valuable contribution to this board.

      Delete
  4. Platy, please excuse my ignorance but are you expecting a steep drop in silver by may 2nd? Thanks for your work!

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    1. Hi Arepmi, I'm expecting an important directional change Apr 30 - May 2. My dates are +/- 1 day unless otherwise noted. It is unclear yet whether it will be a high or a low but I lean towards it being a low with the targets specified in the post.

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  5. I'm not sure if I'm reading to post correctly, do you expect silver to trade at 21.45 within the next few days?

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    1. Yes but if it goes above Friday's high then I would be looking for a high in the next few days instead of a low.

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  6. Ahh, ok. Now It's clear. I honestly thought you people were nuts but the more Im following(2 months) I feel It warrants an open mind. Thank you kindly for your response.

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    Replies
    1. You were right the first time. :P

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  7. platy,
    As i read and follow ; everybody talks about Cowan's book and Beast cycle. has anybody ever pointed what he says about what he has written or he does not mention on what he has written; also does ever comment whether what we especially you interpret or does not he??

    just wondering and again thanks many many times for your great work and interpretation.
    vick

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    1. Hi Vick!

      Cowan sends reports to people who have his software. I don't have it so I don't know what the reports say. He does not comment about this blog as far as I know.

      Delete
  8. Jay, with this bounce off the lows, do you still think we will revisit lower prices in gold and silver, GLD 99? If so, do you have an approximate time?

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  9. Addendum added to Mayday post.

    http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/2013/04/mayday.html

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  10. Sometimes it feels like, "how can the stock market ever go down if the Federal Reserve keeps printing money?"

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    1. This is a great question. Are there limitations on what the money they print can be used to buy? I don't know enough about it but I think it is pretty much wide open. So... maybe they will use the money to short the markets (or long the dollar? or sell bonds?) when the time is right? Maybe there are others here who understand this better.

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  11. Mr. Cowan himself even said in the intro of PTCT mentioned that the Federal Reserve was using "archaic tools" and "holding interest rates higher than they should have" back in 2008. Well, for the past 4 years Bernanke and the Federal Reserve clearly understands deflation and every time the market takes a little dip, they say they will print more money! Recall stocks went down a few percent then immediately 3 Fed presidents signaled more accomodation. It's very difficult to be a bear!
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-18/three-fed-presidents-say-disinflation-may-prompt-easing.html

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    1. Right, but if you read PTCT you should not be surprised that the market keeps going up. It's not time yet for a crash.

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  12. I don't necessarily agree because cycles invert all the time.
    You never know if it's going to be a high or a low until after the fact.

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    1. True but this is a major cycle, not a short term cycle. So you have to look at the longer term trend going into the cycle, which is clearly up.

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  13. Im getting ahead, but I have a note that Cowan has August for a panic high. Just wondering how you see this fitting Platy and others - assuming that my note is right :)

    Chris

    PS thanks Platy for the great posts!

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    Replies
    1. I'm guessing it relates to this:

      http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/2012/09/armstrongs-warning-about-august-2013.html

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  14. Hi Platy, Nice work, as always. Any chance the Saturn/Mars opposition May 5-7 turns into a high. The reason I am asking is because one of the cycle people whose work I respect has a May 7 high for gold.

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    1. Sure, if gold is able to hold on to 1420 I could see it moving into the 1500's next week. But if it drops much below 1420 that would be trouble.

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  15. I just wanted to point out that I believe the stock market bottomed on 6-15-1949. 5 [13 year] cycles from there hit today using Jupiter moving 390 degrees every 13 years. Jupiter is part of the Beast cycle and perhaps we start to move down into a panic low on the 23rd

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    1. As an aside this puts Venus, Earth, Mars back into the "same position" 5 cycles and the three planets rotate 72 degrees for each cycle, therefore it is reasonable to look for a LOW May 23rd.

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    2. Looks like "panic buying" instead.

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  16. Platy,
    We are looking for a turn down tomorrow or acceleration. But a reaction tomorrow. May 3rd.

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  17. acceleration up that is..

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    1. Ok something's on the way - thanks MP!

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    2. Like clock work Platy... lol.

      Interesting interview on the side with M. Armstrong. Gold, Dollar, QE's, and Confiscations.

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    3. http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/martin-armstrong/cyprus-mf-global-gold

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    4. MP great job calling these moves, thanks!

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  18. EW.. always talked about Tallest buildings being built just before the economy collapses for those countries. Well today the Last piece of the World trade Tower was put in. Just an observation.

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    1. I was thinking about that yesterday - Reinhardt used to say to look for the "completion date". Eerie!

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  19. All I know is that divergences continue between and that far more often than not, if they contine to diverge, eventually end in disaster.

    DOW trannies, continuing to underperform, copper continuing to melt down,FDX also continuing to diverge.

    Lastly gold seems just about ready to begin its next wave down and USD looking the goods to me. Long the USD, short AUD

    Cheers

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  20. beetlejuice. I agree with you and add Russell 2000 to your divergence list.

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  21. Shorts getting schooled day after day with all these top callers. Bear meat for breakfast, lunch and dinner :)

    Divergences work maybe 50% of the time. Remember that even a broken clock is correct twice a day!

    Follow price action. S&P gapped up through major resistance. Price action says it all! Unless we reverse hard from here, we should all expect much higher prices in the near future.

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  22. The problem with divergences is when sector rotation causes the previous underperforming sector to suddenly outperform.
    There may be divergences at intermediate levels before a "final" divergence at the top.

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  23. !!! Jay - congratulations !!!
    The first part of your last projection again came true. We went up and up and up and SHARPLY into 05-05-2013.
    Now we will see, whether we have a peak within next two weeks.

    We all know what should come next.
    And I want to say that, thanks to Jay, we are very well prepared.

    Finally wondering who had the guts to really stick to longs into this time frame.

    Jay thanks a lot for what you do for this community!

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  24. AGoldhamster/Platy - I remember Jay's forecasts but could not find them in previous posts. Any chance you have a link to his forecasts on the stock markets in particular? I am dumbstruck by how accurate he has been; truly amazing.

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    Replies
    1. Very are very lucky to have Jay here. Thanks a lot Jay for what you do.

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  25. Concur with the accolades for Jay...his forecast has been outstanding!

    rotrot

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  26. I have been running some cycles for the S&P and share my results with you. I only looked at complete cycles, such as 100%, 200% and 300%. My fist resulted from the high on 5 October 2012 to the high on 19 december (200%)which gave 21 May 2013.

    The next was from the low on 16 November 2012 to the high of 20 February (100%) gives 21 May. And using a weekly cycle from the high for the week ending 21 October 2007 to the low on week ending 6 March 2009 (300%)gives week ending 17 May.

    I am starting to see a pattern, which culminates on the day of the beast cycle and the Uranus 84 year (H) cycles from 1929 - to the day.

    A fibonacci projection from the low on 6 March 2009 and the high on 12 June 2009 (261.8%) gives 1634-5.

    And lastly, the similarities between the 21 September 1987 top and this top are uncanny.

    For what it is worth, will the trigger be the lunar eclipse or the max. S declination of the moon?

    This is about to get very interesting.

    Cheers Chris.

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    1. Chris, FWIW I am charting gold and silver. Both are currently in a consolidating rising flag within a downtrend which typically results in a breakout in the direction of the trend in place prior to entering the flag. Both have been experiencing "waterfall" declines where there is a steep rapid drop followed by a brief counter trend rally/consolidation to be followed by yet another steep decline.

      Prior to the latest 2-day $200+ decline in gold on Apr 12/15, the last big "waterfall" drop ended on Feb 20th and then silver consolidated within a tight channel for 26 trading days and gold did the same for 27 trading days, before the next down leg resumed leading to the climatic 2-day mid-April drop.

      My price estimates indicate gold and silver running into significant resistance as it slowly rises towards the prior breakdown support levels of about $1500-1530 and $25-26. But if we assume an equal amount of consolidation time similar to what occurred after Feb 20, then we are nearly half way there and the time projection extends within this resistance price band. The interesting thing is that 26 trading days after Apr 15 results in a date of May 21 (or May 22 if 27 trading days). Thus, this leads me to believe around that time will mark an interim top in both gold and silver and shortly afterwards will break down from the consolidation flag and resume a rapid, steep decline resulting in yet another "waterfall" over a two week time frame.

      What will be interesting to see is if indeed the above scenario plays out, if the USA indices also decline heavily in sympathy too or not.

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    2. Thanks Chris, very interesting to see different methods converging here!

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    3. Awakening, thanks for sharing your analysis!

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  27. FWIW, 5/5/13 is Jupiter/Saturn 60' from 7/1/10 low, 45' from 3/15/11 low, 37.5' from 7/21/11 hi, 30' from 11/25/11 low, and 22.5' from 4/2/12 hi. This might be important (but then again, maybe not).

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  28. I have updated my charts:
    DJIA
    London Gold
    London Silver

    The projections have not changed. DJIA's expected peak with Uranus included as a factor is still 5th May.

    London Gold is very close to a countertrend rally but the seasonal analysis does not call for a bottom until 2014. Note, this projection is based purely on planetary factors and is very different from my projections based on geometrical analysis that I had posted earlier.

    Don't get very focused on the projected date as these are long-term projections. You should allow for a range of at least +/- 2 weeks or longer to the projected dates as the planetary factors involve several slow moving planets.

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    1. Hi Jay,

      Thank you for sharing of your astonishing research!

      I would like to ask you some questions:

      1. Does every planet used as a factor still have a same weight in your models?
      2. Which combination of planets performed best in In Sample span in the DJIA model? Is it MeVeEaMaCeJuSaChUr? Or just JuSaUr if I remember your posts from 2012 correctly? Or some other?
      3. I understand that since the time series of gold price is substantially shorter than the DJIA series it is not proper to use slow moving bodies in the gold model because of the statistical significance issue. On the other hand, can it be assumed that - in fact - prices of all financial instruments are influenced by the same group of planets? If so, wouldn't it be reasonable to derive the optimal group of planets using longest time series available (such as DJIA) and to use this optimal combination for prediction of shorter time series (such as gold) afterwards as well?

      Many thanks again and all the best!

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    2. 1. Yes, I use an equal-weighted model.
      2. I didn't find a material difference when I extended the model to include all planets through Uranus.
      3. I don't know if planetary movements are correlated with market movements. So, all this is to some extent experimental. I also don't know if planets uniformly influence different kinds of markets or if some markets are sensitive to certain planets. To me, all this is a matter of intellectual curiosity. Regarding optimization - the way the seasonal model works, you need at least one full planetary cycle to include the planet as a factor. For London Gold, that means including Uranus and other outer planets is not feasible even if those planets work for DJIA.

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    3. Dear Jay,

      Thank you for your answers!

      2. And which DJIA model did perform better in the whole In Sample period please? Mercury through Chiron, or Mercury through Uranus?
      3. I see! Did you also try to use all the planets through Saturn in your London Gold model? And did Mars through Jupiter performed worse than Mars through Saturn model in the In Sample span?

      Again, many thanks for your feedback.

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    4. I have not done that kind of analysis

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    5. Hi Jay,

      Ok, I understand. And would it be possible for you to publish the both DJIA and London Gold charts with the whole In Sample period, as you did for S&P500? It would be of great help.

      Thank you!

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    6. Really appreciate your work Jay!!

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    7. Jay, what is the date for your expected 2013 low in DJIA?

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    8. The projected 2013 low for DJIA when Uranus is included is 13th September.

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    9. Thanks Jay. As for the Uranus problem, can you consider this:

      Subtract the model which excludes Uranus from the one that includes Uranus. This (maybe sort of?) gives an approximation of the contribution due to Uranus alone. Then use this value in the composite, instead of the raw DOW data through the Uranus cycle. Hope this makes sense.

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    10. The way the seasonal index works is that the curve for each planet is calculated for each degree from 0-360 based on the returns from one trading to the next. Interpolation is used since trading days typically don't fall on whole planetary degrees. Then the curves are averaged. So, I don't understand how your proposal will work since the model with Uranus was derived in the first place using the Uranus curve which in turn requires the raw Dow data.

      Delete
    11. Let's look at it a different way. Let's say that you want to look at the impact on the Dow due to, for example, Venus. You could plot your Venus data as a function of time (instead of degrees). You would end up with a pattern that repeats for every cycle of Venus. Similarly for each planet. Then you could average all of these plots in time to get the composite cycle.

      Does this make sense so far?

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    12. the Euro Dollar COT data and other factors cause me to believe the fall low could occur during the weeks of September 23 or September 30...note Jay's words of caution regarding his forecasted September 13 low..."Don't get very focused on the projected date as these are long-term projections. You should allow for a range of at least +/- 2 weeks or longer to the projected dates as the planetary factors involve several slow moving planets."

      rotrot

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    13. Platy, that is precisely how the composite seasonal index is computed.

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    14. Good, that's what I was thinking. So the problem with Uranus as I understand it, is that you cannot separate the contribution due to Uranus alone from the contribution due to all planets combined. I wonder if there is a way to separate them. The proposal is to add together the contributions for all the planets excluding Uranus (you already have this), and subtract that from the Dow itself. This gives the contribution due to Uranus alone. (I know it's not as simple as that, but maybe it is a better approximation.)

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    15. Jay, I agree with the post 'Anonymous May 5, 2013 at 7:52 AM'. If you could provide us with deeper history in your charts it would help us to find out which group of planets gives better results. Thank you...

      John

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    16. Platy, what you suggest is hard to do given the seasonal composite represents only the cyclical component. To obtain the Uranus contribution alone using your suggestion, one would also need to subtract the trend component but that component is not known.

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    17. Ok, I was afraid it would be harder than it seemed. Thanks for considering it.

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    18. Anonymous, that would be a great analysis but I neither have the time nor the inclination to embark on it. Something to keep in mind is that the curve represents only the planetary seasonality but is silent on the trend. During strong uptrends or downtrends, the trend may have a greater influence on prices than the seasonal component. Therefore, I see that the seasonal index as only a rough timing tool - I think trying to project prices based on the shape of the curve would be very misleading.

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    19. Hello Jay,

      Thank you for your explanation!

      My point is that I'm not sure whether to prefer curves with the slowest bodies or not. DJIA: Uranus made only 1.4 orbits around the Sun since 1896. Gold: Saturn made only 1.4 orbits around the Sun since 1971. On the other hand, it is probably reasonable to assume that gas giants should have the main effect on financial instruments from all the planets.

      Do you personally incline to prefer the DJIA model using Mercury through Uranus, or Mercury through Chiron please? And London Gold model using Mars through Saturn, or Mars through Jupiter?

      Many thanks!

      Delete
  29. And don't forget this post which had gold turning in May:

    http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com.au/2012/12/major-january-turn-dates.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed:+PlanetForecaster+%28Planet+Forecaster

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    Replies
    1. That is an old chart that did not show the effect of Saturn. The latest chart shows the projections with and without Saturn. Also, the new chart format distinguishes between the "in sample" and "out of sample" curves.

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  30. Thank you so very much Jay. Your passion, insights and superb analysis is very much appreciated. Thanks tons again.

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  31. S&P 500 Friday's 1618 Phi High. Will this be it? Would be a nice little coincidence, or maybe just another bear meat number.

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    1. Whatever you do, Don't short! yet.:-)

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    2. Right. Trend is powerfully up. Even the dot com bubble didn't really implode until Sept 2000. Who is to say this won't continue all the way to near Independence Day 2013? At the present uptrend since mid November 2012, that would take the S&P 500 to 1711 level, only 100 points more. That would be nothing in this market.


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    3. Ha! Nice catch! But I agree it's going higher, 1641 at least (so that Wave 1 = Wave 5).

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    4. Correction from my previous post. Early July was one possibility (7/1/13 is S/U 37'30" from 11/20/08 and 22'30" from 8/25/10). Another possibility is ~ 7/17 to 7/22. Note that 7/17/13 is S/U 120' from 3/10/00 and 135' from 7/20/98, both important peaks during the dot com era.

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  32. Jay,

    Any price projections for sept 13, 2013 low and the final low in 2014/2015 for sp500 or dow?

    Thanks.

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  33. "The maximum expectation for the 2013 top is...May 8...On May 8, Saturn is in opposition to Mars - midpoint Uranus. And Moon is in conjunction with Mercury and Pallas."

    ...March 15, 2013

    rotrot

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  34. Lows in sept´13 in the Dow Jones? but the Jay´s charts shows new lows in 2014.

    My target for the Dow Jones is 9.000 at least and 8.000 next. about 40%-46% fall, like 06-23.

    Apanalis.

    Thanks, Jay, thanks rotrot

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    Replies
    1. Just to clarify - Platy asked when the low would be hit in 2013 and I replied that the 2013 low is projected for Sep 2013. But there is a lower low that is projected for 2014.

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  35. Thanks, Jay, any targets for 2013 and 2014? Very kind of you.

    Apanalis

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