Thursday, April 11, 2013

April 12: Pluto Turns Retrograde

Pluto turns retrograde April 12 near Nasdaq's 36° harmonic and gold/silver's 18°.

Still too busy to add charts, sorry.

83 comments:

  1. Here is a good link on what to expect when stocks drop along with commodities. I feel that the precious metals will drop as markets push higher. Only then when the market turns will precious metals turn up. For now I remain bearish on Gold and Silver and other commodity.

    http://www.safehaven.com/article/29454/we-are-now-getting-deep-into-the-euphoria-phase

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    1. Thanks MP, I'm bullish gold for a couple weeks but I do see your point.

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  2. AAII and Ticker Sense flipped to +50% Bearish this week. Been a while since I've seen those types of numbers. https://sites.google.com/site/bestofthestockmarket/

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  3. Hi Platy, what does it mean? Sorry for stupid question-newbie her. What are your thoughts on gold?
    Godspeed!

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    1. Hi Pap, it could be an important turn date. If I had time I would look at the past directional changes of Pluto to see what impact if any they had on the markets but I'm just too busy right now. Very sorry! I'm mostly posting it here for the record.

      I do believe the markets need some cooling off from the monster rally yesterday. The next important turn period for the Nasdaq is April 18-20.

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    2. I am bullish on gold until April 25.

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  4. I think for the weekly charts to turn bearish it would need to keep the Stoch. in open and down trending pattern. Which means that tomorrow is the final day of the week and we need a push down to keep that scenario. If tomorrows is a Cycle date then I would call for a top of some sort.

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    1. Do you think the rally could extend into April 18-20 MP?

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    2. My guess is that if we top out near April 15-20 as discussed on our email, these April dates are good rally top possibilities. We are within a week now of these dates. There is a big possibility that 2nd wave top, could be in May as per 13 yr cycle earth / venus in SPX with a origin date of 1966. Cowan shows that this is a strong signal date so, wouldn't the 3rd wave be the best signal since its the strongest momentum trend and not the 1st wave (although its the top)?

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    3. Thanks MP... not sure what you mean about the 3rd wave having the strongest momentum.

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    4. EW believes the 3rd wave to be the longest and strongest out of all the waves only equal to wave Cs. Therefore using that knowledge and using Cowans strongest cycle dates. I would like to guess that the top might not occur in May but sooner like on your April Dates and only when we hit May will the strongest EW Waves occur.

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    5. Ok I see. Right, so we could have the high in April, but another attempt in May that makes a lower high, something like that.

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    6. I think both of you are on the right track and correct way of thinking. S&P has so much bullish momentum and so extended from the moving avg that a bearish reversal if it were to occur does not simply free fall crash from an extreme top. It will first dip back closer to the MA and then rally back to retest the highs but fail to make new highs if the short term top is definitely in. One is almost better off to short the rally AFTER the initial dip rather than attempting to pick off the exact top and then question and torment yourself when it begins the rally and sucks up more time to play itself out.

      The same can be said when purchasing a stock that has bottomed. The first big rally after it actually bottoms will always retest the bottom lows again before reversing to higher levels.

      So possible scenario is the first cracks in the armour appear late Apr to early May with the expected rally to retest the highs fizzling out by mid-May and then the big correction to coincide with that significant May 21, 2013 date?

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  5. Just wanted to add that Earth is almost opposite the 23 degree mark on the pentagram also opposite Mars, if midpoints are considered the midpoint of Earth and Mars hits the Pentagram Thurs/Fri, right now!

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  6. In addition Earth is trine Jupiter Fri as I write Nasdaq off 500

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    1. Great observations, thanks Yoda!

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  7. I just woke up and saw red on the S&P am I dreaming LOL. This market cannot go down.

    There is a UPWARDS channel on the daily S&P that is quite strong => http://bit.ly/12OOs6A

    I think there are 3 things at play.

    1) Too many people go bearish.

    2) Funds being pumped into asian markets needed to go somewhere? SO dumped into our US markets, instead of the emerging markets.

    3) many people are saying "do not fight the fed" as ben bernanke now has a hobby of PRINT....PRINT....PRINT LOL.

    We be interesting to see what happens next week and when the big bank report on FRIDAY.

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    1. Friday, the 19th, noted! Thanks Chip :)

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    2. Jay's date is close to tax day - we are really close!

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  8. Thanks a lot Platy. Great work. Keep going!

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  9. wow gold and silver both hit lower low today, is this finally the bottom for awhile and they should go up into April 25? how low can they go, look at the miners, absolutely obliterated!!

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  10. With the GLD ETF down $5.91 today, my $99 target for late May/early June 2013 may turn out to be correct. This is a geometric prediction rather than a planetary prediction.

    Regarding the stock market, we are in the late stages of a Uranus move and such moves ended badly the last two times (19th century and 20th century). 5th May is the forecast date for the peak but I would use a +/- 2-week margin for that date. The date also aligns closely with geometric projected dates that call for a peak in S&P 500 around 1605-1610.

    I would also point out that the 10-year treasury yields have broken an uptrend that has been in place since last year. That is usually a red flag for the stock market.

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    1. Jay,

      Thank you!
      Does this mean the gold bull is over? Is it time to short the rallies for the next 20 years?

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    2. I don't think so. Secular cycles last 16-19 years. The bull market in gold started in 1999. So, I expect we will see all time highs both on a nominal and inflation adjusted basis with intense speculation before the bull market ends.

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    3. Thanks, Jay

      My taget for Gold is about 1.100, and after a rush to 8.000$ in some years.
      Yours is 99$?

      About the stocks, you see the top in may´13+-, any target for the Dow or the S&P? 8.000-9.000 is my target, about -40%, like in 1906-23 pattern or similar 19th century (prospections).

      When you say end badly last two times Uranus?

      Thanks in advanced.

      Apanalis

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    4. $99 on the Gold ETF (GLD) - not on gold futures or London Gold. The Gold ETF is 1/10th the price of London Gold.

      Good luck on S&P 8,000-9,000. It is not going to happen in your lifetime.

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    5. Thank you Jay.

      $99 on GLD is another 33% from here in 6 weeks. WOW...

      Is your time window more important than the price target or vice versa i.e. is it time to buy big in end may regardless of the price of gold?

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    6. I didn't mean to rebuff your projection. Here is why I think 8,000-9,000 on the S&P 500 is a stretch.

      We have been in an impulsive wave in a Elliott Wave sense since 1949. This impulsive wave is a 3rd wave extension which has played out as follows:

      1949-1966 - wave 1 - 600% increase
      1966-1982 - wave 2
      1982-2000 - wave 3 - 1419% increase
      2000-2020? - wave 4
      2020?-2035? - wave 5 - estimated 600% increase

      The projected dates of 2020 and 2035 are based on the geocentric Saturn/Pluto cycle which has the best correlation to the 4-phase US stock market (deflation, reflation, inflation, disinflation) with each phase lasting roughly 16-20 years.

      When the 3rd wave extends, usually the 1st wave and the 5th wave tend to equality in price. The larger the extension, the more likely you will see equality in price. That is why I am projecting a 600% increase from the price level where wave 4 completes.

      Now, the wave 4 structure is a triangle and we are likely only in the 3rd leg of the triangle. The 3rd leg is mostly like a A-B-C flat with wave A the down leg from 2007 to 2009 and wave B about to complete. Most flats will complete with C roughly equal to A. So, we will likely see S&P drop to the 650-750 range. Wave 4 will likely end at a higher price then 650-750 since you still have legs D and E to follow but a 600% increase from the terminus of wave 4 is unlikely to reach 8000. The closest pattern to what we are seeing now is the formation from 1966-1982.

      Of course, I may be completely wrong! Only time will tell.

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    7. Unbelievable smart and timely calls Jay.

      You saved the guys here so much money - and those who took attention should even be deep in the money.

      And this is just the start of this long long road.

      You are such a gift.

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  11. 8.000-9.000 Target Dow Jones, Jay

    Apanalis

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    1. Either way good explanation of wave theory. if this is an expanding flat, there is a chance it could push below the 09 level.. just like in 74. but like you said only time will tell.

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  12. Jay, again I tried to say my target is 8.000-9.000 Dow Jones, is similar pattern to 1906-23 or 1966-83, but nowdays the impulses are strongest.

    My view of this Cycle was the 66-83, but I have regarded that is alterd and distorted since summer 2012.

    Never in a 17 year sideways Cycle, from the first peak (2000), after the 9th year drop about 50% , never we saw a more than 2-3 years up-trend, and never more than 100%.

    This time is different, the ending Cycle is so different, beacause the FED stimulus.

    So that, I.m regarding the 1909-16-19 peaks and is similar pattern to 2000-07-13

    Plus, in 19th Century the prospections of the Dow Jones had similarities to this and after we see retracement about 0,76 or a drop about 40%.

    So my target for the Industrials is 9.000 and after about 8.000.

    Apanalis

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  13. Jay,

    Your expectation for GLD to hit 99$ by late may/early june implies we could be heading for a big crash in GLD over the next 6-8 weeks. Is price more important than time if your price target is not accomplished by June.

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  14. There are only two ways for time and price to balance in corrections - you can either have a small decline over a longer period or a sharp decline over a shorter period. The two projections I had are different price/time targets. It is hard to say what will play out. I think the US Dollar may hold the key.

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  15. Jay,

    We had a smaller decline of about 20% on GLD over 19 months. It appears for the price to come 99$ on GLD we would need to have sharper decline over a very short period of time.

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    1. In EW term.. from the peak you had 3 waves for Wave A... 3waves for wave B.. and now wave C.. will it be 3 waves or 5 waves to end this corrective pattern of 3 years.. Well the general role is wave A = wave C, Therefore measure the first 3 waves and project from top of wabe B.

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  16. To justify a move like yesterday in the metals we have to look at a major cycle ending, in IMO it is the Jupiter/Neptune cycle on the pentagram. Jupiter is on the 72 harmonic while Neptune is on the 36 degree. Their midpoint right now is approaching 208 but it won't hit until about Fri the 19th. It will be highlighted by Mars being 180 degrees from the midpoint on about Thurs the 18th. 208 is the midpoint of 82 degrees and 334 degrees both outer and inner pentagram, it is the 18 degree harmonic

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    1. Thanks Yoda, great analysis. There is also a Uranus 72° cycle on the 25th.

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  17. Yoda,

    For the major cycle to be ending soon, are you looking for gold to bottom soon or could this be start of a much bigger decline.

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  18. Because there is so much talk of Gold these days and how everyone is calling the bottom since last month. I updated my analysis on it. I included silver in a brief chart. The trend might have bottomed but our indicators need to show that and prove that it has bottomed by turning up and crossing.

    http://tfaat.blogspot.ca/
    So with the help of the Planetary angles maybe Platy can fill us in on when the next cycle or turning pt could occur. ;) Thanks in advance Platy.

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    1. Thanks MP, I have 3 minor turn dates coming up:

      4/16/13: Saturn-Venus Opp
      4/18/13: Mars-Earth Opp
      4/22/13: G Saturn-Venus Opp

      Then a major one:

      4/25/13: G Uranus 72°

      The last one may not be accurate because Uranus is slow.

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    2. Since all these dates fall in April there is a good chance of a bottom in APRIL is what I take from this. Also Merrimen calling for a BIG opportunity for Gold to move impulsively soon.

      "The good news for those who are Gold Bugs is that this is still setting up for the trade of the year, maybe of the next two years, as also described in those reports"

      http://www.mmacycles.com/weekly-preview/mma-comments-for-the-week/mma-comments-for-the-week-beginning-april-15,-2013/

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    3. Does Merriman have a price target for the bottom and for that upmove?

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  19. For what it's worth, Stockcharts point and figure chart price objective for GLD is 96.

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    1. They just updated the price objective down to 92.

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  20. Hello, I'm new to this site.

    I invested a high amount of money from an insurance payment last year in physical silver when is was about 35 $ and in Gold at about 1750 $.

    I fear that was my worst decision ever.
    Do you think we will see this level again in the forseeable future?

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    1. I think there is more downside to come this year but in the next 2 or 3 years we should see $75 silver/$3000 gold.

      Interested in what others think.

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  21. sit tight with your position. if you're not on margin, then no fear. gold's story is not over yet. if you want to hedge, buy some puts on the bounce

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  22. FWIW...Syed..."Gold/Silver and other precious metals shall continue to see more catastrophic selling, drop like waterfall. The time cycle has been triggered for the markets of precious metals. Therefore another 20% drop in imminent. Similar drop is expected in the other financial markets. GLD first target is $120 area, that equals to $1216-$1225 zone for Gold commodity."

    http://trade-in-harmony.blogspot.com/2013/04/market-time-cycle-forecast-update.html

    rotrot

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  23. Third week of May 89 weeks from the 2011 high in gold and also 12 months from the 2012 low(360 days)
    GDX still targeting sub $15. This aint over yet.

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    1. That's another 50% from here. Wow! What about equities?

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    2. care to explain how did you come up with GDX fall to 15? head and shoulder? if so, I wouldn't take it seriously

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    3. Anon, yes H&S and I would take it seriously for a number of reasons.

      Firstly ths is a very complex H&S that has been unfolding/forming for over three years and every neckline from the first one down has been broken and reached its target.
      The final neckline was broken to the down side several weeks ago and the sell-off since then, well need I say more?

      Given that this pattern to date has played out perfectly then one has to respect its targets. Adding support to he down side case is that gold has broken a descending triangle pattern going back to 2011 target just under 1100 and many gold stocks have various patterns, not just H&S patterns but double, triple bottom breaks that portend much lower targets.

      So, the GDX pattern is NOT isolated and has many reasons to believe that the target below 15 is legitimate.
      Now, looking a Jay's target for GLD and it doesn't look so absurd.

      Cheers

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    4. bettlejuice, thanks for your elaboration. did you have success in predicting 2009 low for GDX?

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    5. If GDX has 50% downside from here, gold might have to fall lower than 99 for GLD? so how's that it matches Jay's prediction?

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    6. Anon, RE GDX yes I did get close but that is all circumstancial because I could tell you anything.
      Regarding GLD having to fall further than Jay's target. Not so, because costs were lower across the board back then for most producers so it is all relative.
      As well you can't gauge sentiment accurately. I know there are indexes that measure gold sentiment but quite frankly they have all been blown out of the water.
      Those targets imo need to be respected and until we see lower lows in gold and higher lows in gold stocks then I just see any solid bottom.

      Cheers

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    7. bettlejuice:

      Are you looking for your target of 15 on the GDX by late may which would aling well with Jay's GLD target of 99 by late may/early june.

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    1. I think it is instructive to look at the largest correction during the last bull market in gold in the 1970s. London Gold declined 47.8% from its peak price of 197.5 set in Dec 1974 to 103.05 set in Aug 1976. A similar decline from the Sep 2011 peak of 1896.5 will put gold at 989.54. That is pretty close to my $99 target on the GLD ETF (remember the ETF trades at 1/10 the price of physical gold).

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    2. Thank Jay. What about equities? What are your thoughts? You were mentioning a little while back that equities will top around tax day in the US, which is today!

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    3. There is no change in my projections. I think US Dollar strength was the first indication of turmoil. This was followed by strength in the US bonds and then weakness in precious metals. I think the US stock market will be the next domino to fall. Uranus is likely going to be pivotal although the exact timing will be difficult to pinpoint. We are very close to the timing band and my price/time geometrical projection. My inclination is to play it safe and be on the sidelines.

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  25. The inflation adjusted high of London Gold was set in Jan 1980 at a price of $2536.52 using the CPI index of Feb 2013 as base. The current bull market inflation adjusted high is 1940.61. Before this bull market is over, my expectation is that inflation adjusted gold will make a new all time high.

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  26. Thought this to be interesting for people here who are looking to understand cycles and its history or why Cycle analyst believe what they believe.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OPIAOrNnhhA

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  27. Jay,
    What is your expected timeline for the 99$ target on the GLD?

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  28. Email from Olga Morales:

    when planets ingress into new signs
    the markets often react.
    Gann teaches you this in TTTA!

    Gold has a strong Venus Cycle
    when a planet transits the sign before the one it rules
    its like a symbolic 12th house experience and a sign of
    weakness.
    This is the same as the month before our own Solar
    Returns, is like a 12th house month and we tend to feel
    weak and sick.

    I have plotted Venus with Gold, you can view it on my blog
    ASTROLOGY FOR GANN TRADERS | Invest in Ancient Knowledge

    ----

    Venus was at 11 Aries on March 30. It will be at 15 Taurus on April 27, Olga's projected low.

    This is very close to my next major turn date for gold, April 25 G Uranus 72°.

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  29. Cowan's Beast cycle is actually Jupiter rotating 390 degrees it hits on Apr 29th see page 93

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    1. April 29, 2013

      http://0101.nccdn.net/1_5/3ab/334/048/April-Transit-Watch.pdf

      rotrot

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  30. Yoda, would that be a probable turn back up for the S&P?

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  31. Platy, Beast Cycle, says Yoda on Apr 29th. Your date is still 21st may ´13? Thanks

    Apanalis

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    1. Cowan gives several possible dates. I have May 21 as the most likely but it might not be right. Also, there may be more than 1 of Cowan's dates that turn out to be important - for example if we get a double top.

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    2. Thanks, platy. Apanalis.

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  32. Hi, Jay, I concur with your projection for Gold, is similar to the pattern of 1975-1976, with a retracement about 0,5 from the bottom 1968-1970> -47%, so that I expect prices about 1.000-1.100.

    I read you the dates for this is end may-jun 2013.

    Only I hesitate, because teh Us Dollar appreciation to Eur until 2015-16, and if the Cycle is no ending now (GLD), how can we manage a higher in Us Dollar and a rush in Gold from 100$ to (:::)

    And plus, from 1980 we saw a drop about 48% from 873 to 453, the same drop than now!!

    You can see from 25 to 197, and from 103 to 873 as now from 250 to 1924 and from 1000-1100? to 8.000$?

    Another thing is that we can not see a Cycle before the 70´s-80s´in gold because it was standar.

    How can you count the Cycles in Gold.

    In Commodities we count 10 years up-trend and 20 years down-trend +-. 1920-50-80-2008 +-

    Thanks. Apanalis



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  33. Jay, last thing, I wrote days ago that my projection for the Dow Jones is 9.000 in first instance and after about 8.000, because the pattern I explained from 1906-23 retracemente about 0,76 and about 40% drop, likely 19th century, deeper than betw. 1966-83.
    How can you see it?

    Apanalis

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  34. hard to say what Apr 29th brings but it is a Jupiter cycle that aligns with the Earth, Mars, Venus cycle that occurs on May 21, hence the 2 dates, technically both should time the same thing be it top or bottom

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  35. I will add that 5 cycles ago [the number of points in a pentagram it was a low

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  36. Thanks Yoda. I'll be watching those dates. I know there are a couple more Mark of the Best dates depending on Cowan's cycle of origin.

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  37. Cowan

    http://www.cycle-trader.com/

    "Nearly two years before the recent stock market top Cowan published its expected date in Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory ...This cycle has special pentagonal significance only explained in Cowan's latest book. This cycle is due to return again in 2013 with even more profound consequences."

    Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory (page 127) - August 16, 2013 (Beast)

    rotrot

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  38. So that, we have 3 Beast Cycle dates> 29apr´13, 21 may´13 (platy) and 16 ago´13. Apanalis.

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