Sunday, January 27, 2013

Planetary Longitudes and DOW Prices

Reader Nate has been studying Jay's work on the Seasonal Chain Relative method for forecasting DOW prices.

In Jay's work, for each forecasted date, he first finds the heliocentric longitude (or position with respect to the Sun) of Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus, and then averages the historic DOW prices for each planet when these planets were at that longitude. Finally, the 3 planetary prices are averaged. Jay's graphs are meant to highlight directional changes in price, not the prices themselves. Projections are accurate to +/- 2 weeks. Jay cautions that this gives more weight than we would like to Uranus because of its large moves during 1929-1949 and because there is not as much historical data for Uranus due to its slow motion as there is for the other planets.

As a preliminary exercise, Nate has plotted the historic values of the planets for their May 21, 2013 (Beast Cycle) longitude. We are of course interested in this date as a possible major high for 2013. I thought this would be of general interest to others here studying Jay's work, so with Nate's permission I provide the charts below.

In the first chart, historic (since 1900) DOW prices for Uranus, Saturn, Jupiter and Ceres at their May 21, 2013 longitudes are shown in black, red, blue and green, respectively.


We can see from this chart that the longitudes associated with this date are often indicative of a major turn, although sometimes it is a low.

In the next chart, Nate shows recent corresponding DOW pries for Earth, Venus and Mars in black, red and blue, respectively. Jay warns not to use these, so they are shown for curiosity only.


(Jay and Nate: Please provide clarification and corrections as needed.)

24 comments:

  1. Platy why are you removing my questions?

    Now 3rd and final try - 2 Questions for Jay:

    1) Jay do you have the next turndate and top according to your composite Model?

    2) Do you already have something (another composite chart) for Gold?

    Thanks in advance.

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    1. Sorry AG, I removed that entire post.

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  2. Hi Platy,

    Firstly, I would like to say how much I enjoy this site, especially since most readers tend to leave their egos at home. It is refreshing.

    Anyhow, my question is: Cowan gave the date of the Beast cycle as 4/29/2013. Jay has it at 5/21/2013. Can you please explain the difference for us?

    Many thanks.

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    1. Cowan has several possible dates for the cycle if I recall. I studied the past cycles and came up with what I thought was the best trigger, and that is the date I'm going with. Jay's work is independent of Cowan's methods.

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  3. I am working on some refinements. One of the issues with my approach is that the way I calculate the Link Relative returns for a planet at one degree intervals is flawed. I realized this recently and have a fix for it. It doesn't make a whole lot of difference to the projections but the shape of the projected cycle is somewhat different. Unfortunately, I have not had much time to work on my analysis. I expect that I will complete the analysis and share it with all of you in the next few weeks. Until then please bear with me.

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    1. Thanks so much Jay, we all really appreciate that you sharing this with us!

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    2. Jay, have you tried using Ceres in the composite model?

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    3. No, I have not. But I have tried Chiron and it didn't make much of a difference to the shape of the projected curve. I think the planets and planetoids closer than Jupiter are problematic for the model. I suspect this has to do with the way I calculate the composite cycle as a simple average of the returns. Ideally, we should calculate a weighted average with the planets further out being given larger weights. But, it is not clear to me how to determine what weights to use.

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    4. Ok thanks. Looking forward to your update!

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  4. This also works with my view that we see a divergence on the weekly Stoch. chart with higher prices into it. but because we are expecting divergence I would say the move up to new highs before may will be swift. This should keep the bulls piling in and the bears capitulating.

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  5. Lord I think the clarity in your reasoning will make book-Barbara Koval-time and money-aligning its arguments to the methods Ganna began to receive much the exact point of reversal markets weekly live

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  6. As thsi was earlier post and lost - once again:

    Cyclist:

    "The longer play is still favoring gold physical till 2016. The hardest hit will be felt in the bond market within the next three month with the crisis period sitting between May 21 and June 24. Within these 2 months the capital markets as we know it will disappear. The stock markets will hit their first bump the coming 2 weeks and will hit the second one around march 28 with the final one 23rd of May with a rebound into June 18 ,after it will be a straight decline into September.
    In summary the bond market is the finger to watch as the hit will be instantaneous while gold will run."

    and

    "Energy is projected to peak in June with gold while the general markets are in decline one month prior. The Nasdaq might have already topped out in the 4th week of March. Cycles are giving the metals a strong uplift from the third week of February. Copper will signal first with the general markets the highs."

    ----------

    Mahendra gets smoothly nervous - and already called to take all profits in international markets last week - and to hold still 25% (if I got that right) of US markets.
    He expects a 3-5% correction starting somewhen within next 2 weeks.
    Then more towards da moon - as he's bullish Indices for the next couple of years.

    Now connect the dots.

    4 more days until the Legatus meeting.

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    1. Sorry - around 8-9 days until Legatus meeting.

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  7. Platy, if wave 4 is starting, when and where do you think it will take us before the final wave 5 to new high? Thanks

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    1. Hi CM, I really should have been clearer in the post, sorry. This should be a wave 4 pull-back of the rally since 12/31, so it's just a minor correction I'm expecting, maybe 15-20 points.

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  8. Hi,

    I am a new user and really enjoy reading your blog. Also, I am interested in learning more on Jay and Nate's work. I couldn't find more information in this blog to understand above charts. Could some one please help me understand how to plot planetary info on price charts.

    Thanks!!

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    1. Hi and thanks for your interest. Let's take Jupiter as an example. On May 21, 2013, Jupiter will be at 26° Gemini. So Nate has gone backwards in time to look at the previous dates when Jupiter was at this position, and these are marked in blue on the first chart.

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  9. Thanks for the quick response to explain Nate's work!!

    I recently started looking into Gann/Cowan/L pesavento work on cycle analysis and it looks very promising. But none of the authors talked about price projection using planetary info. Have you or any of your readers tried to construct future price charts based on planetary Longitude? such as weekly, Monthly, yearly high/low for stocks/commodity indices. There is a section in Daniel Ferrera's books on how to convert Longitude into price, but not sure this method would work in real world investing. If you or any of your readers interested in talking about price project, i would like to join the discussion.




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    1. I have only very limited knowledge on this subject but am also interested to learn more.

      Please see this post:
      http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/2012/10/platinum-ceres-planetary-price.html

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  10. Thanks!! If i find any additional information on this subject, i will share with you and your readers.

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  11. Hi.

    In reference to converting planetary positions to prices I recommend Patrick Mikula's books, especially Gann's Scientific Methods Unveiled. Both volumes. Excellent books.

    Cheers.

    Chris

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  12. Interesting. Just downloaded his books.. Also, he has a web blog with articles. http://mikulaforecastingblog.com/ . Have you ever used the market warrior software sold on his website?

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