Saturday, January 5, 2013

Nasdaq: January 9 Mars Cycle

January 9 is a Nasdaq geocentric Mars 72° cycle, pretty reliable for a significant turn.

1/9/2013: Nasdaq Geocentric Mars 72°

121 comments:

  1. So the expection is that Gold will continue in its general falling direction until approximately Jan 9, 2013 and then generally turn up? Am I understanding this correctly?

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    1. This post is about the Nasdaq, but regarding the previous post, I would think so, yes. The metals often double bottom, especially for important turns, so maybe that's what we'll see. No guarantee.

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  2. Hi Platy, happy Sunday :-) given that mars has been propelling the equity markets since Dec, do you think this will be any different and reverse down ? I've looked at your previous mars angles since dec and they produced decent bounces . Conundrum :-)

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    1. Hi Mishka, the turn could go either way. It would be nice to have a gap fill & reverse back up on the 9th but it is also possible that the markets continue to crawl up into the 9th and then reverse down.

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  3. Platy,
    Have you purchased the 4 book course and software that Cowan is selling? If not are you planning to fulfill his full course/system to its end and full potential? Just want to see your thoughts.

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    1. Yes I have all of Cowan's books, and I'll tell you, once you get started on this stuff there are thousands of different things you want to get in to and just not enough time. Each new area of study IMO requires not just reading but researching for yourself. I haven't even gotten to all of the areas discussed in PTCT yet. Every once in a while I pick up one of his books and start reading something and start to do the research but to do it right takes a lot of discipline. It is a lot of work already just to keep up with everything I'm already doing, so that's what I strive to do and leave the rest for my "spare time".

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    2. Thanks for the feed back. I wonder why he can't so a step by step course where you learn it in a more simpler way than to confuse you. Unless its like a bike. You will never know how to ride it even if someone told you how unless you try it for yourself and fail and get back up.

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    3. He's an excellent teacher - I didn't mean to imply otherwise. It's just that planetary dynamics are very complex because there are many cycles going on all at the same time. So I think he does a good job of simplifying the explanation, but to investigate the theories it takes a lot of work. It is rewarding once you do, but just not as simple as you might think at first.

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  4. Not sure if its just me, but having to go to all threads for latest comments is not easy, did you ever consider a daily or weekly thread just for comments? and make your posts no comments zone?

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    1. Sorry, I don't see an easier way to do it.

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  5. Platy,
    what is the success rate of this planetary turn dates? what percentage of time is it accurate in your experience?
    thanks.

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    1. I have not calculated a success rate (it is sometimes hard to define criteria) but every prediction is documented here and you can do that analysis for yourself.

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  6. Platy,

    I can see many want a date but do not want to do the work. haha. These ranges tells us that its important dates to watch, and by using indicators that could be in a position to turn is a great way to tell what the possibility of that next trend could be on that date...

    I did some weekend research and compiled a few dates together to give us a somewhat clearer range. The rest we will let our indicators tell us.

    http://tfaat.blogspot.ca/2013/01/weekend-find-cycles.html

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    1. Thanks MP, this is a big year for sure.

      BTW I have not seen Cowan predict that May will be a major high, or Armstrong that August will be a major high, though I know that these dates are "important" to each of them. Where did you see that they are calling for highs on these dates?

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    2. I was looking through so much this past weekend Id have to look for cowans.. but Armstrong has his date published a few months back. Here is the link

      http://www.martinarmstrong.org/economic_projections.htm

      Title is "Will we collapse by Aug 7th 2013?"

      Its a good read as he is not expecting a significant drop past the 09 levels, but a downturn nonetheless. EW is probably the most drastic and severe of all analysis looking for a 3digit SPX by 2015-2016. The previous 4th wave for the DOW JONES is around the 1000 area which is 1970's. I wont say it cant happen but these turn dates they produce should be a good way to prepare for it.

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    3. Thanks a lot MP. I have read that paper by Armstrong and even did a post on it. Looking at it again, I can see that he is implying a strong possibility of a peak at that time without saying it directly.

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    4. Platy - this is a snip of one of your older posts (Sept 7) .... "Uranus returns to its location at the September 3, 1929 top on May 20, 2013"

      That is exactly what Cowan told/says - and you referred to.
      Now if that, besides the 13y cycle, and a few other points - is not at least indicating a top ... then I don't know.

      Nevertheless I will keep a very close eye to early February. I smell a rat there.

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    5. A major date, no doubt. But I am being a stickler about this because I have seen other people saying in the blogosphere that Cowan's May 2013 prediction is for a LOW. I think it can be unnecessarily damaging to Cowan's reputation to attribute either a high or a low to this date if he did not say either. Instead, we should do as he suggests, and look for the trend as we approach the date.

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    6. Platy - I got his latest newsletter. Better do not expect a low there !!!

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  7. Platy,

    Did you say you bought the Cycle Timer software? If so Cowan is giving his 2013 review for the owners of the software.

    Its bugging me now where I saw those dates. I know I cant be imagining it lol.

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    1. No, I don't have that software.

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    2. Im still looking for a Windows based Kairon software that you mentioned. I contacted them but they just started working on it. Do you have any recommendations for a windows based software?

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    3. No sorry, I only have a Mac. Maybe somebody else out there has a recommendation?

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    4. For the May-July 2013 projections - see pages 48 and 104 of Pentagonal Time Cycle Book. On page 48, Cowan uses the 18 degree Uranus harmonic that aligns in May 2012. A year later the beast cycle (666-week) calls for a top in May-July 2013 time frame. He projects the date from from 2 points - Mar 1962 and Oct 1987.

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    5. From page 104:
      "An up-trending market into May-July 2013 should raise caution... Similarly, a down'trending market into this same time period would signal a major bottom."

      I still can't find anyplace where he predicted a top for this time.

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    6. His 5/5/2012 on his Web site http://www.cycle-trader.com/ called a top in May 2012 and references the forecast in his Pentagonal Time Cycle book.

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    7. His website called a top in May 2012. The book did not specify top or bottom. But aren't we talking about 2013?

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    8. You are right that the book only specifies a cycle change on pages 48 and 104. There is a mention of a cycle change one year after the May 2012 Uranus cycle (18 degree) on page 48 of the book.

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  8. See http://www.lunarplanner.com if you want to learn more about planetary cycles. See http://www.lunarplanner.com/HCpages/Venus.html for a description about the pentagonal cycle of Venus.

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  9. Thanks, platy, I expect, as you know, this would be in the way of 1st/ 3rd of January G Ceres 36º in the SP500 and the 45 years cycle the top of the continuation of the downtrend iniciated in summer-oct12 to see the bottom in may13-ago13.

    If i´m wrong, may be the top in may, or before??

    The majority of my Cycle indicators are pointing to a top from last summer

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  10. By way of Cowans words though (JMHO).. He seems to be WARNING rather than "Stating an Opportunity". I know why I came up with those numbers in late May.

    Ernie Quigley mention that a top is what he is calculating it to be "The decennial pattern of stocks confirms this cycle and projects it will be a high". He also metions that its within the range of Cowans cycles. May not be accurate for the following dates, but put things together and this is pretty much what my analysis is.

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    1. MP ... and I might add some emphasis: "rather strong and convincing WARNINGS".

      Now if I add Crisstoffs DOW map - and Cyclists roadmap - and a good dose of what is happening out there (foodstamps, record unemployment, AGAIN, in Europe, record high corruption, etc. think of 1930ff) - and if I then look at those HUGE SHS'es then, and the overall positioning of the specs (voila 2007 again) at least in my book, it is crystal clear, that we are not moving towards a major (May) low, but towards a several years lasting high - somewhen in coming months. That's the only question for me - when will be the top, in February (Legatus), in April (early rats leaving early) or as projected in May. And the second question: what will gold do in such an environment.

      That is also the message of Cowan - he does not explicitely call for a high - but what he had to say was indeed a rather strong warning that soon is the time to think of protecting ones assets.

      Finally another observation: i don't treat it as something fortunate when most of the planets are in the lower half of the zodiac/chart. As that indicates the opposite of a bright future. And that is going to happen in coming months. And in August we have some rather bleak onstellations too.

      I stick with it. You will see a replay of 1930ff.
      The signs are already there - for everybody to see. Just like in the late 20ies - nobody wants to see them.
      And as Cowan puts it eloquently in between the lines: the question is just "will it be a 3 years lasting brutal major bloodshed - or will it be just a more or less severe correction".

      I think it will depend on the trigger. A failed election (i.e. Greece) for the bankers/oligarchs or a natural disaster (another devasting hurricane) or another Enron will have different implications.
      If 1930 repeats - get used to a shift of power away from the bankers and oligarchs towards the starving public or sort of a "leader". How much higher than 50% youth unemployment until there is smoke and revolution in the streets? 55%, 60% ... it is not a question of if, as there is still no stopping of exporting of jobs and manufacturing towards Asia ... the current system of higher growth and higher profits for the sake of individual gains and riches has definitely failed, the cracks are everywhere and it holds just together still due to money printing and kicking the can further down the road - but the evil at the root has not changed, and there is also not the slightest willing of change (with the oligarchs/bankers in the governments everywhere) - so the end is crystal clear. That is what has to be expected for 2013-2016. Revolution in the streets. Shift of political powers. Breakdown of infrastructure or many who cannot afford life anymore. And if bad luck: additional natural disasters like more drought and floods.
      IMHO of course.

      Crisstoffs DOW map sounds very very reasonable. I hope he continues to throw in his nuggets here from time to time.

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    2. AGH - thanks for the comments, but Im not sure what DOW map I posted - are you talking about ANNON's??

      However this is something from the Ttheory forum which has been working well - https://dl.dropbox.com/u/31723500/Interlocking_Inverse_Ts.png

      I am looking for mid Jan for my T since Nov low to end.

      Crisstoff

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    3. Crisstoff - this what I called "your roadmap" - if that was not yours - then I'm confused now

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    4. Thanks AGH, Been looking at sentiments between cycle analyst and if they are a majority calling for a top within 2013.. They cant be all wrong. The good thing is that I can confirm when the time comes that my indicator should show itself.

      http://tfaat.blogspot.ca/2013/01/7-jan-2013.html

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    5. AGH - that is ANNON. I sign off all my posts :))

      Crisstoff

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    6. Crisstoff - reread all those older posts. Indeed there is no proof that it was you who has posted the DOW composite and later the Gold composite.

      Matter of Anonymous ... confusing. And hard to follow that Anonymous who posted these charts.

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  11. also based on Ganns 84 year cycle going back from 2013 is 1929.. then going back from that is 1845, and I believe there was a top on that as well.

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    1. which is likely nothing else but the Uranus cycle

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    2. Yes, and coincides with the Beast cycle this May.
      http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/2012/09/may-21-2013-very-important-date.html

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  12. Platy,

    Sorry to keep posting. I hope you don't mind. I have been working with the GANN wheel for a few months and so far most if not all have come to fruition. Based on my GANN starting points we are coming up to a Jan 9th which you are calling for Resistance correct? I know ANON is calling for a Resistance at Jan 10th. Just a day after and based on his analysis hes been spot on by a day or so haha. Would like your comments on the future dates coming up in Feb and Mar.

    http://tfaat.blogspot.ca/

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    1. Looks like you are looking at a pure timing based on Sun's motion. Why do you need a Gann wheel to calculate the dates?

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  13. Sorry that was a Jan 10 double bottom By ANON. Which is now going to be unlikely which could be from that slow moving planets hes talking about.

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    1. Right, so I'm thinking still that Jan 9 will be a low, probably gap fill, then higher in to the major Jan turn windows I talked about. But we need to watch to see how it plays out. After than I will be in a better place to comment on future turn dates. Maybe. :P I'm really glad for your interest and contributions MP.

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  14. I have updated the Gann Wheel calculations with 2 more sets (low of April 10, and High of May 1st). The Arrows indicate the results of those support resistance on dates provided by the wheel and so far things look promising. We have a few false positives but still analysing things.

    Purple vertical lines are made by the 144 degree and 216 degree which is apart from the square and Triangular results.

    http://tfaat.blogspot.ca/2013/01/gann-wheel-based.html

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  15. I had a closer look at that DOW composite cycle - from Anon.
    And as far as I can read it - I have come to these conclusions:

    1) The real market seems to have a bit more upside pressure than the painted chart. In other words: it tends to fight the lows and tends to be in love with the highs.
    That leads to

    2) The low projected at 1/10 was preceded by a low in late December. Both lows are the in the chart. Just that according to 1) it is no surprise that the low on 1/10 will be higher then those in late 2012.

    3) The first high (except we have a blow off parabola) will seen around mid to late March, then a small correction and another high in late April with another correction followed and a lower high in May.
    In DOW terms the highs will likely be a bit higher than the November highs.

    If all this continues to work - boy that will be the same money making machine as it was when Wynter Benton came out just before the silver rally started in fall 2011.

    And if true - around tomorrow the low before we move higher.
    Just thinking out loud.

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  16. Ernie Quigley has mid Jan as a turn date going down to sideways move to mid March, then a rally to mid may to cap off the high that will hold for a while and bottom by 2016.

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  17. Looks like your mars angles hijacking SPX again Platy :-) It's also sagitarius moon which is usually big moves in 1 direction, so far so good here :-)

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    1. At the moment it looks like it's putting in the middle peak of a triple top. If so we probably will keep going mostly sideways for a few more days before we get the gap fill.

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  18. Hi Platy,
    Any update from ANNON on the jan 10 low/ turn date?

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  19. Anon, I think its inverted. Jan 10 low will prob be high ? we'll see

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    1. Thanks, not sure, I dont see market breadth deteriorating

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    2. The seasonal method is just an average of the historical planetary returns corresponding to the heliocentric positions on a given day. I use Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus. This is not your usual cyclic model that has to contend with potential cycle inversions. I think too many of you are fixated on the specific date. The Jan 10th date is a nominal date. Given how slowly the 3 outer planets move and that I use data at 2-week intervals for the projections, you really should be looking at 10th Jan +/- 2 weeks as the turn date. With that context, it is likely that 31st Dec was the low for the Dow as it rallied sharply afterwards. Only time will tell though. I also think you would be remiss if you used the model for short-term trading given the wide time band for the projections.

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    3. There is another way to calculate the resolution of the method. The average longitudinal moves per day for Jupiter, Saturn, and Uranus are 0.0830 deg, 0.0335 deg, and 0.0117 deg. I calculate average historical returns at 1-degree intervals. Taking the reciprocals of the mean daily motion, the resolutions for the 3 planets are 12 days, 30 days, and 86 days respectively. So, the best resolution you are going to get is 12 days. Calculating average historical returns are smaller intervals is not recommended as you will have fewer data points being averaged.

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    4. I have not had much luck incorporating Mars and the inner planets in the analysis as the model seems to lose its predictive capability. Ideally, you should be taking a weighted average of the planetary returns with the planets further out receiving a higher weight. But what weights should one use? I tried casting this as an optimization problem but again the model was a poor fit to historical turns.

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    5. Thanks for the detailed responses Anon. Do you have a name we can use for you to avoid confusion?

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    6. You can call me Jay.

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    7. Anon, this is really interesting. So is the implication then that a major planet's return to its position at a major high implies a high, and the return to its position at a major low implies a low? If so, that fact alone would imply a major high for May 21 due to Uranus' return to the '29 high.

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    8. Jay - thanks - another question.
      I was assuming you used the Sun in your calculations because of the word "seasonal". Is this not the case?

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    9. Not necessarily. The returns for each degree position are calculated based on historical data and then averaged. So, for Uranus you really have only a little more than a full cycle while for Jupiter you have about 10 full cycles. The composite index is based on averaging the returns. For example, if on 10th Jan, Jupiter is at j deg, Saturn at s deg, and Uranus at u deg, you will compute the mean of the average planetary returns corresponding to those three degree positions. I think Uranus has such a big impact on the composite cycle because you have so little data to rely on. The large moves during 1929-1949 have a huge impact when projected forward to the current time period. Ideally, for statistical validity you want at least 30 full cycles for each planet. We don't have that much data - so the analysis while intriguing should be used cautiously.

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    10. Thanks a lot for the explanation Jay, that makes sense.

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    11. Hi Jay, Thanks a bunch
      VG

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    12. The Sun is not used. The standard statistical method's name is Chain Relative or Link Relative and is used to account for seasonality. I use 360 seasons corresponding to the ellipse at 1-degree intervals to model seasonality. You can find a description of the method at http://tinyurl.com/a42j6rf.

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    13. Jay - that gold composite earlier provided - did you do that just for platy (because you know she's looking at Ceres etc) - or is that from yourself, from your own research - and do you think it has a chance to become reality - that means gold going lower even into April/May timeframe?

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    14. I did it for platy. I haven't studied it much but it is on my list of things to do.

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    15. Thanks a lot Jay - looking forward to that chart.

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  20. Technically things are going the way it should. Our 60min from yesterday told us this was on a move up. The Jan 10 low might still be in play and could be a few days off so this would be a minor date. we have a possible 4 of 5 waves developing in EW theory. It could be enough to push things up or leave us failing to make a high. If we don't crack the Sept high WE WILL HAVE A SEVERE down trend coming. WARNING is in full effect. As I speak our 60min SPX stoch. has already reached overbought and is probably looking for a cross down or divergence to finish off the 5 waves we need.

    http://tfaat.blogspot.ca/2013/01/8-jan-2013.html

    Update here:
    http://tfaat.blogspot.ca/

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  21. I know this is not Astrology analysis but I work with Time Frame analysis and my theory is that all time frames are related to each other. So I was inclined to think that this would also apply to planetary angles and alignment.

    My analysis is that a weekly chart is affected by the Daily chart which is then affected by the 60min chart and so on. So I use the Slow Stochastics to relate them to each other. Last night I got to thinking, what if....

    What if these planetary alignements can be categorized in specific time frames. So if we are looking for a top or bottom on Jan 10 for example then we would look at weekly or daily or 60min or 15min to see which stochastics at that time is topping or bottoming. If there is BIG evidence that its bottoming at 60min Stoch chart then this movement and this angle would correspond with 60min time frame.

    By doing this we can figure out what angles and planets affect the monthly and weekly charts therefore you can figure out the major tops since the weekly and monthly stochastics tell of major trend highs and lows.

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    1. You can do this in a scientific manner using average returns corresponding to planetary returns by borrowing a method used by J.M. Hurst in his book "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing" although it is important to note that Hurst used the method to combine different cycles derived purely from price data. Essentially, you would tabulate the heliocentric longitudinal positions of each planet of interest to you and the corresponding future returns for a given forward movement of the planets from that position. Then you can examine the table and qualitatively draw some conclusions from the data. For example, if your time horizon is 4 weeks, you would calculate the projected degree movement in 4 weeks for each planet and then use the historical returns for that degree movement to forecast future returns. I used the word qualitative because one has no idea how to weight the projected returns for the different planets. However, in some cases the forecast may be pretty evident if most planets are forecasting large returns in the same direction. In essence, the Seasonal Chain Relative Method does just that except that it uses a simplified model based on the average returns of just 3 outer planets. The qualitative method is more cumbersome but could be easily automated and may provide better insights into which planets have a bearing at any moment on stock prices.

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    2. Thanks for the Feedback Jay.. Here is a what I'm looking at graphically during those time frames

      http://tfaat.blogspot.ca/2013/01/planet-vs-slow-stoch-study.html

      Because we know during the rise and fall of stocks we might not see a top till the stochastics crosses up or down. We can eliminate the noise or segregate them on a micro or macro level.

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    3. In essence a planetary movement during a top during its yearly cycle will have a weekly planetary movement during that is affected by that trend. Im not not even close to being a beginner about these astrological data, but I would guess to say that I can use a weekly planetary position as my main trend (ie. trend up) and during that trend Up or.. a daily planet position will always indicate a top or bottom during this weekly trend.

      We can then eliminate guessing a top or bottom???

      Or maybe Im just repeating what you guys already know? haha.

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    4. MP, so are you bullish or bearish for 2013. I saw a chart in your site comparing 1997 to 2009, but in fact is 1974-78 / 2009-12 and the projection as you interpret? My scenario is target dow 2013> 8.000-9.000.

      I read that majority cycle analysts see a top between spring-summer13.

      Wich is your point of view? Thanks

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  22. Morning Platy!
    Waiting mad for the turning point for oil. Today... perhaps?
    Have a nice day.

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    1. Bonjour chere Mickette! I think today could be the day!

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    2. We are expecting so, platy, but in NDX in my case or SP500, or DOW? Correct?

      Can we know your scenario for next weeks, platy? Thanks to be here.

      Apanalis

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    3. Hi Apanalis, I can't comment on the next weeks until I see the already listed dates play out.

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    4. Mickette,
      Were you looking for a move down in oil or were you looking for a continued move up in oil?

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  23. Platy,
    I got my book and the 1st 10 pages are already enlightening. Seems that for me its logical to think that 2013 is a top for Cowan because as he said "The buy and hold strategy works best when it is applied at the start of 17-year bull cycles such as 1949, 1982, and 2017." This leads me to believe that if the statement is correct that 2013 is nearing the end of its 17 year bear cycle and we cant have 2 bottoms here. At least what I would be looking for is a significant bottom and that doesn't look like it here because it would make the 2009 the significant bottom if we called 2013 a significant year that Cowan is warning about.

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    1. I don´t understand your argumentation MP. Why can not be a bottom in may13? Of course Buy and Hold is in the initial of the bullish Cycle, 49-82-17 and best before in the 9th year of the first peak from 1914-1966-2000-and so. I´m expecting for the drop as in 1978 or 1980?, more than -0,618 from low09 to high12, target 8.000-9.000 DOW JONES.

      If the top is in may13, 8.000-9.000 2014, if not, the bottom is close to us in next months.

      I saw in your site, a comparation betw 1997 and 2009, but in fact is 1974-1978 / 2009-2012 and projection 8.000-9.000 DOW.

      Have you change your view? Thanks

      Apanalis

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    2. Great that you got the book MP!
      My only hesitation is that it could be a counter-trend bottom between a double top, like what happened in 2000. But I think we got our answer already, from the hamster. :)

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    3. @ Apanalis - I haven't changed my view that 2013 is a top. My BASIC analysis is based of Cowans Cycles and nothing else (no planets, angles or zodiacs). This is just my logical way of analysing Cowans words. Also based on my technical our monthly Stochastics is at oversold and diverging this cannot go on without a reset.

      @platy - Yes I thought about that but my thoughts are that on a technical basis our Stochastics at every time level is overbought and diverging. It is fine to say that we can stay overbought but a bad sign if momentum starts to diverge while prices keep rising. We are also approaching in 3 to 4 years an end to a 17 year cycle and a start of a new one. If Cowan believes that 2013 is a significant year and he has been warning about it then why wouldn't I rather consider the 2009 low as more significant if we were to say 2013 is a low and all it did was continue on. Im looking at a bigger picture, and I know that these planets say there is a turn of some sort Major or Minor, but if its any indication I would say if we bottom for 2013 then that can be considered a minor and Cowans warning would be a dud. He also stated that the bottom of a 17year cycle followed after a 3 year bear trend. Just like that of the 1932 low that was preceded by a 1929 bear trend.

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    4. Correction - OVERBOUGHT ref. to reply to Apanalis

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  24. With only about a week to go for the first major January turn window, maybe that gap fill will have to wait?

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  25. so Platy, taking a look at these cycles of Cowan. Is it safe to assume that the degrees and position of the planet is more important than the price high and low of the market? When you count the 17 year cycle it oscillates up or down and is not exactly at 17 years. Why so?

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    1. Because the 17 year cycle counts the phases of Uranus, but the market is a function of all the planets.

      There are ways to compute support/resistance levels from planetary positions but I haven't really gotten into that. Take a look at this site:
      http://astrologicalinvesting.blogspot.com/

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  26. Seems like earth time scale is different from pentagram time scale which he did not say anything about ...

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  27. Seems like the earth time scale is different from the pentagram time scale.. there was no mention of this. So if this is the case the event or top and bottom could already have happened before this planetary cycle date arrives.

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    1. Not following. What do you mean by "earth time scale"? How is this different from the pentagram time scale?

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    2. It seems that based on the Pentagonal time scale Uranus as the example shown. The 17 years is considered the cycle that keeps recurring. But measuring from a starting date, you get a value that is sometimes exactly 17 years or sometimes 2-3 years away. (ie. page 18 a 17year cycle starting at 1897 - 1914 - 1933 - 1950 -1966 - 1981 - 1998.)

      I understand that we have to allow for days or months of adjustments based on the start date, but some dates are 1914 + 17 =1931 and cycle ended at 1933. The only one that match up was the first cycle from 1897 to 1914. Is this reason because only trading days are counted rather than include the holidays and weekends? Because that's the only reason I see why we are not getting the numbers exactly to the day...

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  28. It is not exactly 17 years, but it is exactly a 72 degree movement of Uranus (heliocentric). Because the speed of uranus is not constantly the same, a 72 degree movement is not always 17 earth-years...

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    1. Thanks for the clarity. Seems then that the angle and position of the planet is more important than the earth years or time. I just cant get it out of my head that our time and revolutions have been accurate for millenium (ie. 1 day = 24 hours, 30-31 days in a month and 365 days in a year.) yet the cycles can fluctuate. maybe its how we use leap years or that extra 1 day at the end of the month that keeps things aligned. Maybe planets have these attributes also?

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  29. MP, I can see:

    http://www.businessinsider.com/historic-equity-fund-inflows-this-week-10-2013-1

    Only 5% drop?!

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  30. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-11/tom-demark-sell-world-and-soon-us

    13 cycle..

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    1. 13 days Cycle, what´s the meaning of this?? Thanks MP

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    2. Its just an interesting post. I don't know the meaning of it but seems Tom Demark is calling for a BIG top here the same time most of the cycle analysts are calling some sort of top or bottom here.

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    3. Anyone knows the meaning of his system, I´m searching but I do not understand (...) I looked his last forecast and He is fine.

      Apanalis

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    4. I don't get how he's doing the counting. The current rally has been 9 days or 38 days depending on where you start. Of those, 6 or 23 have been positive. So how can today be a "12 count"?

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    5. Maybe hes only counting the BUY days.. When I look at his 9s it resets when he doesn't get a setup and his count might finish at 5 and start at 1 again.. maybe this is the same deal with his daily 13. I figured its interesting how there are different cycles and ways of interpreting it.

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    6. strange, but interesting. Apanalis.

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    7. Here is a brief article which explains the 9 and 13 counts from Demark. http://www.technicalanalyst.co.uk/demark.pdf

      I do chart it and use it as an additional indicator, secondary to my T based systems.

      Crisstoff

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    8. Thanks Crisstoff, very helpful!

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    9. Thanks, let´s have a look, Crisstoff. Apanalis.

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  31. MP, this is what I find in your site in the end of nov12, no new highs, the nowadays rebound and the downtrend target 8.000-9.000. The upper chart is 1974-80.

    That´s why I asked if you change your scenario.

    Thanks in advance

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    1. I don't know what you are referring to

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  32. Here, Monday, 26 November 2012:

    http://tfaat.blogspot.com.es/2012/11/1997-vs-2009.html

    It´s yours.

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    1. MP, and my name is Apanalis

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    2. Yes as you can see that pattern did not play out. EW theory is good but not by itself. There are 21 patterns and everytime an EW pattern fails it gets crossed out of the many possibilities and another possible pattern. I may put patterns out but it should only be taken as a possible count. My analysis is for short term and mainly uses Stochastics. and my short-term can last for a few weeks to months.

      Those trends are much more important that EW even if we know how to count them. I always say that with 21 different patterns using it as your only way to trade would leave you penniless. You have better odds flipping a coin 50%.

      Longer term EW we still have a possible B wave or 2nd wave with a C wave or a 3rd wave down to follow... Hope this helps Apanalis.

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  33. It suprsided me because is the scenario I´m expecting. Thanks

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  34. Platy,
    Another clue "the caveat for buyers at mid-cycle troughs is that the price .......... is followed by the.... at the end of the 17 year cycle. typically lasting ....years. That means positions should be held a maximum of.....years before moving back into .......and waiting for the end of the........cycle." this was in reference to 2009.. why i think 2013 will be a top.. pg27

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    1. Right, I'm not questioning that 2013 will be a major top. I was only questioning whether Cowan said that May 2013 would be.

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  35. Platy,
    On page 27. 2nd paragraph on the right hand column you will see why I am considering a top for 2013. This coincides with his mid-cycle panic in 2007-2009.

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    1. I think almost all of us here are expecting a major top for 2013.

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  36. Everyone is expecting that (...) Remember what Marc Twain said. Apanalis

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  37. Hi jay
    Thanks for all you do. What's your next turn date? When do you think is THE Top? By the way do you have composite cycle for nifty too?
    Thanks again.
    Dhanapal

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  38. Hello Jay,
    concerning the seasonal chain method you have used to derive your composite Dow chart there are 3 aspects which I do not fully understand and I would like to ask you. The first aspect is what is the table information you use as input to the relative link model. My understanding is that this should be a table with day 1, day 2, day 3, etc as rows and Degree 1, Degree 2, ..., Degree 360 as columns and then the first row / first column element would be then the average return of the Dow Jones when all 3 planets you analyse are 1 dg longitude but if on the first day of analysis nobody of the planets is in that degree than the entry for the table is zero? The second question I have is due to the fact that the output of the link relative method for seasonal variation is given by seasonal indices which in this case would be a sequence of 360 numbers, one for each degree, but then the composite chart you present plot results over time and it is not clear to me how one goes from the degree to the time dimension? Finally, as a third point, you mentioned in a previous comment that: "The composite index is based on averaging the returns. For example, if on 10th Jan, Jupiter is at j deg, Saturn at s deg, and Uranus at u deg, you will compute the mean of the average planetary returns corresponding to those three degree positions". According to this statement, one can certainly construct a composite representation which is already on a time scale (say daily), but to do that there is no need to use the link relative method of seasonal variations? Leaving all questions aside, I find your work inspiring. Thank you for that. Marco

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