Saturday, January 12, 2013

Equities: Major January 16-18 Turn Window

The January 9 Mars cycle, although it seemed subtle at the time, reversed a downtrend and prevented markets from filling their January 1 gap. We have 2 major turn windows approaching (first discussed here), at least one of which is likely to result in a significant high. This post covers only the first of these 2 major January turn windows.

On January 16, Saturn will be at the S&P's 18° harmonic, trine Mars/Neptune and Ceres. Venus will be opposing Jupiter at the same time.

1/16/2013: S&P Heliocentric Saturn 18° Harmonic Trine Mars/Neptune and Ceres, Jupiter-Venus Opposition
On January 18, Mars joins Neptune in the trine with Saturn and Ceres. This will be addressed further in a future post about metals.

Also on January 18, geocentric Uranus is at Nasdaq's 18° harmonic, and 144° from Saturn.

1/18/2013: Nasdaq Geocentric Uranus 18° Cycle, 144° from Saturn
Uranus 18° cycles are very important. The previous 2 Nasdaq Uranus cycles were first mentioned here, and both occurred 2 days after significant turns. Uranus is very slow moving, so the exact turn date is difficult to pinpoint. For this reason, this turn window should probably be expanded to January 16-21.

The other major January turn window, Jan 23-25, will be explored in a separate thread.

34 comments:

  1. i love this blog. Thanks for doing this.

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  2. Another great post this week Platy. Grateful for your work ! well I was right about your mars aspect last week :-) Not sure about saturn turn, big down wednesday and up on friday ? What do you think

    Michael

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    1. You did call it! I'm going to remember the Sagittarius Moon thing!

      The Uranus aspect should be more important than Saturn, but it's +/- 2 or 3 days so that makes short term predictions difficult. However, I think we have a fractal pattern that keeps playing out with these up waves: choppy at the bottom, and then pretty much straight up. If that's what's going on, we're at the place where we should get a very strong push higher.

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    2. Also I should have clarified in the post, when big events occur close together (within a few days) like Saturn 18 and Uranus 18 in this post, it usually results in a single turn, not 2 separate turns.

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  3. Thanks for clarification Platy, saggitarius moon (jupiter) plus your mars cycle was too strong to reject. I do agree that there is unfinished business above but the market will probably squeeze out longs earlier part of the week and bounce in the 2nd half, which has been the pattern lately. Goodluck this week and thanks for your posts

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  4. Thanks platy, a plasure to read all of this.

    My point of view is days for a turning point in the market. My bet is a drop about -15% in Dow Jones from the top of oct12, but we go slowly in the first steps.

    Apanalis

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    1. Thanks Apanalis. Please explain your reasoning. Why will the market turn in a few days? Why will Oct12 stand as the high?

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  5. Well, platy, I explained this some-time-ago, my thesis is we are in a similar situation as in the end of 2007, we are in the 2nd sholulder, the 1st in may, the Head in oct12 and after this we will enter in real down-trend in all markets, DOw Jones, commodities, bonds, etc, replicating Bovespa 2 years ago. You know a base my analysis in the hiostorical charting of the Dow Jones and we are in the same structure, well, similar to 1966-83, 1906-23, 1869-1886, and so (...), i expected the 0,618 retracement in the end of 2012, 1Q 21013, but the FED is lagging the Cycle.

    In other hand I see the 45-years-Cycle and it is pointing out a turn these days, as your dates, the first, the 8th of jan13, and we hace some others, that you have expleined very well.

    I agree with a lot of analyst that see a drop in this point, but, not the next analysis, all of you are seeing new higs in 2013.

    Never knows, but if i´m wrong, I will be short in 14.000, or in 1.600, but will they permit all together be short in that levels?!

    Was all of you long in march09?

    I was the unique I bet, everybody were short and they said sp500 target below 600, even 400, i read from some US analyst was heading to zero,

    So, as Marc Twain said, whwn you are in the same direction than the mass, you must be worried.

    And now everybody is bullish.

    Regards

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    1. Thanks Apanalis, but you could pick any high at any point and say you expect that to be the head of a H&S. So why Oct12? If we get a higher high, will that be your new head of an H&S? If your analogy is 1966-83, there was no H&S there, nor in 1906-23, or 1869-86.

      Also, I don't see the masses calling for a 2013 high. I see a lot of perma bears and perma bulls, nobody really having any idea if/when it will top. I think a lot of people here see a 2013 top because of the unique nature of the work we do here.

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    2. My basis for a top here are my work with stochastics and although there are not a lot of people who have access or have looked at the stochastics for the yearly and quarterly chart. All I can say is its not looking good.

      http://tfaat.blogspot.ca/

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    3. I agree that things look super bearish and there are negative divergences galore. and so its reasonable to believe there's a flush coming. but if you look throughout history, the heliocentric forecasting and historical Gann cycles always prevailed in the big picture. so trust the info given here. the ancient shamans like Mayans and Egyptians studied planetary cycles for a reason.

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    4. MP - nice graphs, definitely we know something big is imminent!

      Anonymous - exactly!

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    5. Yes I don't doubt the cycles and planetary alignments / angles and that's why I am here. But because we can't all call ourselves GANN or Cowans... we need to at least look at indicators to confirm it for us who are not 100% in our forecasts while we become gurus ;P

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    6. platy, the Head and sholulder pattern is not the only reasin to think oct12 was the top in the Industrials.

      The main reason is to see how the Dow Jones managed in same situacions-structures in the past-17cycle (roofs)andafter a decline about -50% in the 9th year always you can see an upside to the top, but a little below, about 100% of gains, we have now 111%, well the drop was 54%, but in the past was about 46-50%.

      The economic rise is about 2-3 yeras, no more, and is time to decline, was in the end of 2012, but the FED!, the Fed is lagging this cycle, is my point of view.

      I see a lot of indicators, technical, sentiment ones and macro charts, I can´t explain all together here, is my study of lots of years in markets.

      Not only in this site, I heard lots of analyst an retail investors on trust the US index are going to touch the historical highs, in Europe, also people belive on it.

      Remember 12 months ago.

      Everyone was bearish.

      But the market was climbing, at least in US, not in most Europe, nor many Emerging markets.

      And now?

      Look at this chart:

      http://www.businessinsider.com/historic-equity-fund-inflows-this-week-10-2013-1#ixzz2HhDbfd00

      I could be wrong, of course, I was partial long in nov08, but i was long again in march09.

      It is not easy the tendence, never was.

      In 2007 I alert of down-trend in the Industrials, everybody tought i was mad.

      In 2000(...)

      We could explain more, but i´m boring all of you.

      In 1996, por example, R.Pretcher alerted of a danger, and it was not, and so.

      From 2009 everybody has been bearish, only bullish when thw Dow Jones was in a top.

      I don´t know if the Industrials will be in 14.000 in 2013, but it would not be the standard for this Index, I will stand open mind, anyway, but is a place for me to be short, in tendence.

      In may-jun I closed my short positions-expected 8-10% drop in Dow- in Oil, Dow, Russell and others and in summer opened short positiones expecting another 10-12% drop, BUT the FED pushed the Dow Jones upper! Incredible, until the drop of nov12> -9%, and we are now, expecting about -15% or less.

      And after(...)only God Knows.

      Apanalis

      In 1996



      Apanalis

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    7. Apanalis, I think it's healthy to consider both sides, this is why I am asking you questions. But I still can't see anything I can bite my teeth into. So you have been right several times in the past. We all have. If you're going to keep telling me I'm wrong you need to give me a solid reason why so that I can give it consideration. I just don't see any reason why Oct12 was so special. I guess we'll find out one way or the other pretty soon.

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    8. platy, I have not a crystal ball, as we say in Spain, only my work and my honesty; I repeat: I can be wrong, and we can see the top in may, also in agoust, or in december, but my studies and my cycle says that is not the standard way, so I must do what I study, but with open mind.

      Step by step, platy, first, my expecting drop in the Dow jones, to close short positions and second, we will check the structure again.

      We are here to help each other, this is my intention, sorry if I disturb anyone.

      PD.: look the NDX from las summer as leading indicator for markets.

      Apanalis

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  6. mp love your blog! we're totally on the same page. that's why we're all here.

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  7. I stick with Jay's "charts". That's the long term silver lining.

    Short term - whether we top here - or not - I just trade the charts. I.e. recently with the EURJPY way beyond its trend channel - I sold yen-crosses and USDJPY and Indices, and at the same time went short.
    That means being led by the charts - though to have Jay's charts in ones minds - is IMHO the best strategy here.

    Or in other words: we have a long journey to go the next 3 years. So there's no need to be greedy. It's enough to have 1 or 2 long term positions initiated "near" the top. Whether that is now at 13500 or in 3 months at 13700 or even 14000 - is more or less unimportant for the final targets in 3 years - 9000, or 8000 or 7000 or what the hell do we know.

    Besides that: somebody pushing his agenda - just spells an eventually unbalanced mind - in need of being right.
    Or again in other words: Jay just did a handful of posts.
    But they were much more convincing than ....
    The very same applies to Cowan.

    Platy - congrats also to your style of managing this blog, = being a very neutral and not predetermined mind.

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    1. Jay is the (formerly anonymous) reader who provided us the DOW and gold roadmaps shown in this post:
      http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/2012/12/major-january-turn-dates.html

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  8. Regarding the current discussion whether top or not: I think we are due and close for a short term top.
    Then a small or moderate correction - for technical reasons, but also because the politicos likey will not be able to achieve an agreement very soon.
    And after the agreement likely another push higher.

    Besides that I repeat: have a close eye on the Legatus event early February. Many many of those Legatus events in recent years marked tops. Either medium term ones or long term ones. Some were also no event.
    For whatever reason.

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    1. I agree with your outlook hamster.

      Legatus -- so you are an "R" follower! :D

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    2. Not a follower, his in fact clown - or worse.

      Though through him I stopped following those events. Just look at the latest event. I follow them since years now.

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  9. boy what a number of mistakes - again:

    Not a follower, he's in fact a clown - or worse.
    Don't spend any money on him!

    Though through him I started following those events. Just look at the latest event. I follow these events since years now.

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    1. LOL I used to follow him back in '08. Learned a lot from him - that's where I first learned about cycles. I haven't followed for years either though.

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    2. I paid 80$ for a subscription - but, despite several emails and he even replied, never ever got anything ...

      But, for whatever reasons (maybe seasonals?), these events accuracy is mind blowing. I remember just a single one that didn't materialize in the last 5 years. But maybe my memory sucks ... or it is simply just a seasonal pattern

      Anyway early February is the next date. And if there is an exhaustion move north at that time you can bet I will ride that opportunity.

      BTW I also post at kitco.
      To keep this site clean - astro/cycles related.

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    3. Wow that's terrible customer service! :(

      Just looking at my notes because I looked into this some time ago.... they seem to like Sun-Jupiter aspects.

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  10. platy,
    I guess I need some help with this window that you have identified.
    Are we at a low on the 16th and then on a high on the 18th?

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    1. Hi, sorry it wasn't clear. When major events occur close together like this (Saturn 18 + Uranus 18 only 2 days apart), it usually results in a single turn date. I am calling this a "turn window" rather than a turn date because the turn could happen any time between these 2 dates, with a little bit of buffer because these are slow moving planets. Since the trend has been up, I would expect markets to turn down in the next few days. Maybe we'll finally get that gap fill?

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    2. I am looking at a pullback here. Though I don't now how much. I do know that if it affects the weekly Stoch it will be substantial. Weekly charts that trend will trend for weeks to months. Daily charts will trend for days to weeks. Remember this and you can better understand time frames your looking at.

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    3. Thank you for that clarification, platy. I appreciate your time and your effort for this blog.

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