Monday, December 31, 2012

S&P: January 1 Mars 36° Cycle

As suggested in this post, equities have turned back up due to the December 28 S&P Ceres 36° cycle. However, the uptrend will probably not last long because there is a geocentric Mars 36° cycle on January 1 (markets closed that day) that is likely to reverse the markets back down either today or Wednesday.

1/1/2013: S&P Geocentric Mars 36° Cycle

Saturday, December 29, 2012

Major January Turn Dates

The important 12/21/12 Mayan alignment of  heliocentric Saturn-Venus conjunction trine Neptune and Earth has apparently reversed both equities and metals.

On this day we saw the flash crash in equities that took almost 50 points off S&P futures in about an hour, reversing a bull run that had begun in mid-November. Also at this time, metals finally ended a major multi-day decline.

12/21/2012: Nasdaq and Saturn-Venus Conjunction near 36° trine Earth near 72° and Neptune.
December 28 was an S&P Ceres 36° cycle so we should get a bump up here but the major trend is probably still down.

12/28/12: S&P Ceres 36° Cycle




January should be very interesting as we have several important dates coming up.

Equities

January 1, S&P: Geocentric Mars 36° cycle.

January 3, S&P: Geocentric Ceres 36° opposes Venus 72°.

January 9, Nasdaq: Geocentric Mars 72° cycle.

Mars cycles are usually pretty reliable short to medium-term trend change indicators, and probably more important to equities than the Ceres-Venus opposition, which may be more important to metals. My guess is a move up into Dec 31 or Jan 2 (markets are closed Jan 1) as a counter-move to the Dec 28 Ceres cycle low before moving back down.



Next we have 2 major turn windows, January 16-18 and January 23-25.

January 16, S&P: Heliocentric Saturn 18° cycle trine Neptune, Mars and Ceres. Also Jupiter 36° opposes Venus 72°

January 18, S&P: Neptune-Mars conjunction near 72° trine Saturn and Ceres. The conjunction makes a Great Triangle with Venus and Earth.

January 18, Nasdaq: Geocentric Uranus 18° cycle. The last 2 Nasdaq Uranus 18° cycles were both 2 days late and marked an important top and bottom, respectively. Uranus is very slow moving so an exact date is hard to pinpoint.


January 23, Nasdaq: Heliocentric Ceres 72° cycle Trine Saturn, Mars/Neptune.

January 25, S&P: Heliocentric Mars, Earth and Venus form a 72° Golden Triangle. The same day on the geocentric chart, the Moon's nodes are at major harmonics square Mars. This is a very powerful configuration.


The important 12/21/12 Mayan alignment of  heliocentric Saturn-Venus conjunction near Nasdaq's 36° trine Neptune and Earth has apparently reversed the equities bull run, so it appears likely that the trend will remain down into the mid to late January turn windows, where a double bottom would make sense.

I would like to add here a chart from one of my long time anonymous readers, who uses the Seasonal Chain Relative method with historic DOW values and Jupiter, Saturn and Uranus heliocentric longitudes to approximate future behavior. Please refer to the comments in this thread to see the amazing track record of this reader. In this model, the next low occurs January 10, although because of the slow moving planets, the dates can be off by up to 2 weeks. (The graph is meant to highlight directional changes with time, so values in price may not be accurate.)


This implies an alternate scenario where equities bottom near the January 9 Nasdaq geocentric Mars 72° cycle and then move up into the January 16-18 turn window.

Metals

January 3, gold and silver: Geocentric Ceres-Venus opposition at major harmonics.

January 6, silver: Geocentric Ceres 36°.

January 9, gold: Geocentric Ceres 72°.

January 16, gold and silver: Heliocentric Jupiter-Venus opposition at major harmonics.

In the near term I think it makes sense to see a small spike down on January 3 (stop kicking double bottom with December 20) that would mark the beginning of a small bull run into mid-January.

Next is a major turn window, January 18-21:

January 18, gold and silver: Heliocentric Neptune-Mars Conjunction at silver's 72° (gold's 36°) harmonic trine Saturn, Ceres; at the same time, Earth is 144° away at silver's 72° (gold's 36°).

January 21, gold and silver: Earth, Mars/Neptune, Venus Golden Triangle 72°


It is interesting that the major turn window for metals coincides approximately with the major turn windows of equities above. Since equities have been trending counter to metals we can logically guess then that this time period will mark a major top in metals. Combining this with the gold roadmap, we might expect one of the early January dates for metals to make a double bottom with the December 20 low before rising into the January 18-21 turn window, then falling back down to major long time support in the Spring.

My anonymous reader has provided us with a chart for gold (see comments) using the Seasonal Chain Relative method and Mars, Ceres and Jupiter longitudes. In this model, gold bottoms in late May just as equities are topping in the earlier graph.


If the equities alternate scenario plays out, then we may see metals topping at their Ceres cycles (silver on Jan 6, gold on Jan 9) and moving down into the January 18-21 time frame.

Sunday, December 23, 2012

A Roadmap for Gold

I have to say, last week's brutal attack on the metals really took me by surprise. I had been convinced that they were headed to new highs. I apologize to those I misled with my conviction.

We have to figure out what this means now.

When major supports are lost there is usually a bounce up to re-test the supports. Both metals have dropped to 61.8% retracement, a logical place for a bounce. So my expectation now is perhaps a 38.2% retracement back up to either the October or November highs. But then what?

Gold has dropped to horizonal support above the previous consolidation level. It is possible that this level is strong enough to hold it, though it is likely to be at least retested after this short bounce. I don't see a similar support for silver yet however.

Gold Futures

If this level does not hold we have to consider the possibility of a return to the bottom of the 1520ish-1800 rectangle. With this in mind let's refer back to gold's long term chart.

Gold Futures
Gold's major movement have been primarily driven by Jupiter and Saturn harmonics for years. The next such harmonic is a Jupiter 72° cycle in April 2013. Since Jupiter's harmonics have been showing a pattern of HLLHLL, I was expecting April to be a major high. But now I must consider that it may be a major low, the final low in this long rectangle before gold finally resumes its bull path.

In this scenario, I would imagine that gold would fall all the way to the bottom of the rectangle, then make a final bounce for a re-test of the low in April, something like this:

Gold Futures
At this point the Jupiter would finally provide the energy needed to fuel gold to new highs.

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Nasdaq: 12/15 Mars 72° and Venus 72°/36° Cycles

Our last important turn date was December 9, an S&P Ceres 36° cycle, discussed here. I expected a significant top at this time, but it did not happen. This reminds me of early this year when I kept trying to find a reversal point but the market ignored my normally reliable turn indicators and stubbornly refused to make a significant correction. I realized later that the cause of this was that we were approaching a Uranus 18° cycle, discussed here.

I believe we are in a similar situation now. There is a very important turn date I have coming up in January (it is close to ZigZag’s predicted top), and I think the market is being pull up strongly into this date.

Today is a heliocentric Mars 72° and Venus 36° cycle, as well as a geocentric Venus 72° cycle. Since we have a dip here I plan to use the opportunity to take a long position in equities. Because the turn date is a Saturday, this means that the bottom may have been put in already on Friday, or it could come on Monday. There are some interesting supports in all 3 markets right now so it looks like a reasonable place for a turn and a good place to put a stop. (If I get time I will post some charts.) Today is also a low on ZigZag’s correlation chart.
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12/15/2012: Heliocentric Mars 72°/Venus 36° and Nasdaq Harmonics

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12/15/2012: Geocentric Venus 72° and Nasdaq Harmonics

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Gold/Silver: 12/13 Uranus Turns Direct

Gold and silver topped when Ceres crossed their important harmonic points, discussed here and here. We then anticipated a significant correction for the metals. In the second link I showed a potential roadmap for silver based on this expectation. Since that time we have indeed seen a correction play out similar to the one drawn but on a faster timescale. So the question is, is the correction finished? This is a tricky game we play so let’s look at the clues.

From a cycle theory perspective, gold is near the end of its timing band for a low. Here is a great site that uses cycle theory, showing gold potentially bottoming on day 22 of an expected 18-28 day cycle. Because we had a new low on Friday, that puts us at day 24. So there is not much time left for gold to complete its correction. Here is another excellent analysis, also using cycle theory.

Next let’s look at some moving averages. Silver is supported by the important 10, 20 and 75 weekly moving averages. It also double bottomed off of 50% retracement from its November low to its high. This looks very good for silver
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Silver Futures

But we see a little trouble when we look at gold. Gold is trapped between its 10 and 75 week MA’s. The critical 200 week MA should save us from catastrophe, but it is pretty far below.
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Gold Futures
Gold is likely to be held back in the short term by its 10 day MA. If it can’t break through here, a touch of the 300 DMA below would make sense, making a double bottom with the November low, which in and of itself should be strong support.
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Gold Futures
Silver is about to run into the same problem with its 10 DMA.
SilverDailyMA
Silver Futures

Let’s look at some trend channels. Gold is stuck in a down-sloping green channel, but has strong support from the purple channel. You can see it bouncing with force off this purple line.
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Gold Futures

This middle purple trend line above is very important because it goes all the way back to 2008. While this line provides strong support and resistance, it is typically (but not always) pierced a little.
Image
Gold Futures

Silver has a nice strong trend line that I would like to see touched. This could be accomplished by a trip to 61.8% retracement.
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Silver Futures

There is also the problem that gold made a lower low on Friday. The previous low was Wednesday, one day later than my last turn date. Since my turn dates can be +/- 1 day, I considered Wednesday a valid day to bottom. But I had no turn date for Friday. This does not mean that the bottom cannot be in – I don’t catch every turn. But the chances are much better when there is a planetary explanation for such a significant turn.

Considering all of the pieces together, I have a suspicion that the correction is not finished, and if so the next date I will look for is December 13th, when Uranus turns direct. Uranus is currently very important to both gold and silver because it is near gold’s 72° harmonic and silver’s 36°. I just noticed there is also a new moon on the 13th at gold’s 36° which you can see in the chart below.
2012-12-13GoldUranusDirect
12/13/2012: Uranus Turns Direct Near Gold’s 72° Harmonic
Uranus turned retrograde on July 13, 2012, discussed here and here.

A bottom for the metals on December 13 would put it at day 28, the very last day of their expected timing band for a low from cycle theory.



Thursday, December 6, 2012

S&P: 12/9 Ceres 36° Cycle

We saw here that heliocentric Ceres caused gold to top on 11/27 and silver to top 2 days later as Ceres reached gold’s 72° and silver’s 36° harmonic, respectively.

On December 9, a similar configuration will occur for the S&P, as geocentric Ceres crosses the S&P’s 36° harmonic. This should cause a significant reversal.
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12/9/2012: S&P Geocentric Ceres 36° Harmonic

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