Sunday, December 9, 2012

Gold/Silver: 12/13 Uranus Turns Direct

Gold and silver topped when Ceres crossed their important harmonic points, discussed here and here. We then anticipated a significant correction for the metals. In the second link I showed a potential roadmap for silver based on this expectation. Since that time we have indeed seen a correction play out similar to the one drawn but on a faster timescale. So the question is, is the correction finished? This is a tricky game we play so let’s look at the clues.

From a cycle theory perspective, gold is near the end of its timing band for a low. Here is a great site that uses cycle theory, showing gold potentially bottoming on day 22 of an expected 18-28 day cycle. Because we had a new low on Friday, that puts us at day 24. So there is not much time left for gold to complete its correction. Here is another excellent analysis, also using cycle theory.

Next let’s look at some moving averages. Silver is supported by the important 10, 20 and 75 weekly moving averages. It also double bottomed off of 50% retracement from its November low to its high. This looks very good for silver
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Silver Futures

But we see a little trouble when we look at gold. Gold is trapped between its 10 and 75 week MA’s. The critical 200 week MA should save us from catastrophe, but it is pretty far below.
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Gold Futures
Gold is likely to be held back in the short term by its 10 day MA. If it can’t break through here, a touch of the 300 DMA below would make sense, making a double bottom with the November low, which in and of itself should be strong support.
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Gold Futures
Silver is about to run into the same problem with its 10 DMA.
SilverDailyMA
Silver Futures

Let’s look at some trend channels. Gold is stuck in a down-sloping green channel, but has strong support from the purple channel. You can see it bouncing with force off this purple line.
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Gold Futures

This middle purple trend line above is very important because it goes all the way back to 2008. While this line provides strong support and resistance, it is typically (but not always) pierced a little.
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Gold Futures

Silver has a nice strong trend line that I would like to see touched. This could be accomplished by a trip to 61.8% retracement.
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Silver Futures

There is also the problem that gold made a lower low on Friday. The previous low was Wednesday, one day later than my last turn date. Since my turn dates can be +/- 1 day, I considered Wednesday a valid day to bottom. But I had no turn date for Friday. This does not mean that the bottom cannot be in – I don’t catch every turn. But the chances are much better when there is a planetary explanation for such a significant turn.

Considering all of the pieces together, I have a suspicion that the correction is not finished, and if so the next date I will look for is December 13th, when Uranus turns direct. Uranus is currently very important to both gold and silver because it is near gold’s 72° harmonic and silver’s 36°. I just noticed there is also a new moon on the 13th at gold’s 36° which you can see in the chart below.
2012-12-13GoldUranusDirect
12/13/2012: Uranus Turns Direct Near Gold’s 72° Harmonic
Uranus turned retrograde on July 13, 2012, discussed here and here.

A bottom for the metals on December 13 would put it at day 28, the very last day of their expected timing band for a low from cycle theory.



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