Sunday, December 23, 2012

A Roadmap for Gold

I have to say, last week's brutal attack on the metals really took me by surprise. I had been convinced that they were headed to new highs. I apologize to those I misled with my conviction.

We have to figure out what this means now.

When major supports are lost there is usually a bounce up to re-test the supports. Both metals have dropped to 61.8% retracement, a logical place for a bounce. So my expectation now is perhaps a 38.2% retracement back up to either the October or November highs. But then what?

Gold has dropped to horizonal support above the previous consolidation level. It is possible that this level is strong enough to hold it, though it is likely to be at least retested after this short bounce. I don't see a similar support for silver yet however.

Gold Futures

If this level does not hold we have to consider the possibility of a return to the bottom of the 1520ish-1800 rectangle. With this in mind let's refer back to gold's long term chart.

Gold Futures
Gold's major movement have been primarily driven by Jupiter and Saturn harmonics for years. The next such harmonic is a Jupiter 72° cycle in April 2013. Since Jupiter's harmonics have been showing a pattern of HLLHLL, I was expecting April to be a major high. But now I must consider that it may be a major low, the final low in this long rectangle before gold finally resumes its bull path.

In this scenario, I would imagine that gold would fall all the way to the bottom of the rectangle, then make a final bounce for a re-test of the low in April, something like this:

Gold Futures
At this point the Jupiter would finally provide the energy needed to fuel gold to new highs.

19 comments:

  1. I have analyzed London Gold beginning 1968 using the Seasonal Chain Relative Method that I used previously for the DJIA. I only considered heliocentric movements of Mars, Ceres, and Jupiter as there isn't enough data for the planets further out. The composite cycle shows London Gold bottoming in late May 2013 roughly when DJIA is expected to peak.

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    1. This is very interesting. The Jupiter/Saturn harmonic dates are not always precise so there is some slack possible. I made the above harmonic graph a long time ago and need to revisit it for a more careful study. Thanks as always for sharing your work Anon!

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    2. Or maybe my double bottom should be shifted over so the first bottom is in April.

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    3. Since you are interested in the Jupiter/Saturn 19.86 year cycle, I have posted a composite cycle here where I average the Mars, Ceres, and Jupiter/Saturn cycles. This shows still shows gold bottoming in May. However, unlike the previous chart where the subsequent peak occurs in Nov 2015, in this chart the peak occurs in September 2013. That suggests a very massive runup in just a few months which I think is unrealistic. I think we are likely seeing some very questionable forecasts given we have very few complete cycles of Jupiter/Saturn or Saturn.

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    4. Eeeeks! Thanks Anon, but I agree that doesn't look right to me. Thanks for posting though, your work is always intriguing!

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    5. Just want to add here that there are some important Uranus and Neptune cycles coming up later in 2013, and those should be even more important than Jupiter and Saturn.

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    6. Your January 10 double bottom call for the DOW is looking really good right now Anon.

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    7. Is there a chart for that DOW (or SP500 projection) somewhere on this site? Could you repost that link?

      Seasonal greetings to all (platy and all contributors) on this board.

      Thank you, Davy

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    8. Hi Davy, happy holidays!

      Please see this post:
      http://planetforecaster.blogspot.com/2012/12/major-january-turn-dates.html

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  2. As the bears are out in force now (first time since many moons they are calling for lower lows now) - it looks like the bottom is close.

    And the high will be in May.

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    1. Not sure I'm following that logic.

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    2. Ranq:
      I like your PM senario, Anon.
      I'm watching for a late May PM high.

      Sorry you left the other site, Platy.
      The new subscribers sure got screwed, me included.

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    3. I'm sorry too ranq. I was asked to consider leaving twice. So I obliged.

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  3. Hi Platy, I dont know what ahppened on the other site, but its good to see you posrting on your blog.

    Crisstoff

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    1. Thank you Crisstoff. Let's call it a learning experience. :)

      I'll get active again soon. Right now I need a little break from it all.

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  4. Platy,
    Do i hear you right??? you are back on this your own site!!!
    Hey,man that's God sent news and can't ask for better one though.again, without being selfish i hope everything was Ok while leaving change-in-trend site and assocites???!!!!!!
    Anyhow, wish you A wonderful,peaceful,Healthy and Hearty prosperous newyear
    thanks for posting such great work and i wish you keep doing
    vick

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    1. Thank you so much Vick, I really appreciate that! :D

      Yes I am back and everything is fine and exactly as it should be. I am happy to be back!

      Best wishes to you as well my friend.

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  5. Crisstoff - yes I told her already earlier to focus on her site here. She didn't, refused so to say ... lol, funny though how things "are forced together", swiftly, finally. Amazing. Coincidence? I don't think so.

    Yes it is very good to see her posting on her blog!

    Cylist also has a low in January - and the high in May, then down, down, down.
    For the metals his view is different. I will share more later. Just in case.

    Crisstoff are you aware of the content of the SMG-Update?
    And is the gold-modell/composite also available from before 2011?

    agh

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  6. According to the Martian cosmic wallop early june will see the full lunar eclipse of Wall Street.

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