Sunday, January 1, 2012

2011 Score Card

This blog has only been going a few months and there have not been many predictions. Since some of what we do here is experimental it is important review the predictions for the year to see what we have learned.

Financial

Mars 72° Cycle Approaches
Here we warned of the October 3rd Mars 72° harmonic crossing which could be significant enough to end the 2011 bear. The following day the markets put in their bottom and began a solid 9 day rally. The low so far has held.
Result: Success

Upcoming Mars 36° Cycle
Mars made a 36° harmonic crossing on December 20. On that date an 8-day drop in the Nasdaq was reversed and so far this bottom has held.
Result: Success

December 18 Jupiter-Mars Square
In this post we talked about the Jupiter-Mars square that formed on December 18/19. We were not sure whether this aspect would act independently of the Mars 36° cycle on the 20th (and the Jupiter 18° cycle on the 29th), or whether they would work together. Because the events were so close together it really is difficult to say but it appears that even if the square by itself had an affect it was quickly overpowered by Mars on the 20th. Jupiter's 18° crossing didn't seem important enough to warrant its own post; there was a reversal on the 29th but it's hard to say how significant this was with light trading during the holidays. Cowan does not address squares, so as a prediction it was experimental and I'm going to call it failed.
Result: Fail

Five Fixed Turn Dates Every Year
We listed December 26 as one of the 5 fixed turn dates every year. Again it is hard to make a judgement with the light trading.
Result: Indeterminate

Disaster
 
Here we found a planetary link between the Deepwater Horizon disaster, the royal wedding, the Virginia earthquake, and the Mayan end date. From this we found a related configuration near Goro's phi point that resulted in a deadly quake in Mexico. However, Goro's original phi date was actually correct from a multi-contextual standpoint (which is not what we do here) so we did not improve on Goro's phi date.
Result: Mixed

We predicted a disaster triggered by either the geocentric Jupiter-Saturn opposition squared by the Moon on the 26th, or the heliocentric Pluto/GC, Uranus, Earth, Mercury square on the 25-26th. The Mount Lokon eruption was demonstrably linked to the Moon squaring Jupiter and Saturn.
Result: Success

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I think this is a pretty good track record so far. There is a trade-off between making gutsy predictions that may fail and making only safe predictions to keep a good score card. I kind of prefer the gutsy ones because we learn so much from our mistakes. As Cowan says at the end of his book:
I hope the effort has provided the reader with additional knowledge and tools to improve his investing decisions. As with my previous writings, I hope it leads other researchers to expand on it, improve it, and to pass the torch on to the next level.
So that is what we hope to do here. If all we did was to make predictions based on Cowan's findings then nothing new would be learned.

Something important we have in exploration is silver's behavior based on its natal chart. It is one thing to find (or think you have found) a correlation between certain events and past behavior, but another to be able to make future predictions. So this is one of those "risky" areas I am willing to be wrong about for the sake of progress.

If you find the information in this blog interesting, I hope you will buy Cowan's book. (To be clear, the disaster predictions made here are unrelated to Cowan's work.) It is packed with so much information that has not been touched on in this blog. I don't say this with any monetary intent; Cowan and I have no relationship to each other except that I once bought his book. But I have surprisingly not found this type of research anywhere else, and I want to encourage others to explore this technique so that we can work together to expand on it, improve it, and bring it to the next level.

Happy New Year!

35 comments:

  1. Greetings & Happy New Year!

    Another site with some cycles charts I have seen nowhere else is here. Steve Williams:
    http://www.cycleprooutlook.com/Charts/SP500/Outlook.htm
    He unfortunately hasn't updated for exactly 1 year now, but here's an example of something of note, a clear 17.6-Year running cycle predicting a coming low in 2017.6 (mid-August) for the inflation adjusted $INDU or S&P500:
    Page here:
    http://www.cycleprooutlook.com/Charts/SP500/Outlook_091116.htm
    Chart URL here; or scroll way down huge page:
    http://www.cycleprooutlook.com/Charts/SP500/Dji176y0710.gif
    With only a cursory look, it is strange that we can see this number 17.6 years in the skies in the difference between the orbital periods of Jupiter (11.86) and Saturn (29.46)!
    Can you look at a astrochart for pretty much 2000.0 and 2017.6 and notice if anything is similar with these planets' position?
    Thanks.

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  2. Fantastic! Thanks so much, I will check it out!

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  3. Agree that highlighting in advance (forecasting) cits is the best way to learn - to sum up what we're expecting for the next two months:

    1/8 SAT 203
    1/13 VEN 0 SAT
    1/26 JUP 0 VEN near 18
    1/30 MARS 18 / EARTH 311

    2/5 VEN 36
    2/16 VEN 18 / CERES 72
    2/27 VEN 72 (square URAN 18)

    have I missed any?

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  4. so I'd like to suggest/forecast:
    1/13 H
    1/24-26 L (Merc 36 and Ven 18 on 1/24)

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  5. Hi Buffee... What is H on 1/13?
    There is Venus 72° Opposed Saturn 36° Squared Earth 18° already on the watch list.
    Venus 18 on 1/24 is also already in the watch list.
    I don't like to track Mercury because it is so minor.

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  6. H = "high" on 1/13 - just repeating it for the record. I added 1/24 (Merc 36) because it is 180 a 72 that is notable for panics. Also have seen Merc act as a trigger near other transits (in this case Ven 18 near 0 Jup).

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  7. Ah, ok - thanks for the additional information.

    I'm not willing to call "high" or "low" on most turn dates myself. Since I usually post turn dates a few days in advance, what I think is going to be a "high" sometimes turns out to be a "low" by the time we get there, and vice versa. The key for the reader is to note the direction of the market as it comes into the turn date and use this as a piece of information along with the many other analysis tools out there.

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  8. Agree but want to add that I often see Saturn associated with highs and Jupiter associated with lows - haven't "proved" this so probably best to stay with identifying them as "cits" as you suggest. :-)

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  9. Interesting, thanks for the insight - something to pay attention to.

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  10. I've been looking at Cowan's recent posts on his site:
    http://www.cycle-trader.com/index.html
    where he marks the 2011 cits on a chart (1/27, 3/14, 4/29, 6/17, 8/8, 10/4 and 12/16) and remarks that they are derived from the same pentagon points as in Fig. 4-1 in PTCT - the 17 year cycle (of Uranus). I've noted all the helio locations for the planets and have two possible solutions for how he might have calculated these cits - one using the points in fig. 4-1 and one not using them. I hestiate to post it here as I don't know how many of us actually have his book, but would love to have a discussion on this...

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  11. It's the Mars cycle. The way Cowan's software works, you specify the date of some past high or low you are studying, and the planet whose harmonics you want to study. Sometimes the turn dates can be off by a day or more from if you had used the Great Pentagram points. So that's why he doesn't always stick to the GP, and why his Mars turn dates are slightly different from mine, which are purely based on the GP. (This effectively rotates the pentagram slightly.) Did you find something different from this explanation?

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  12. The Mars 36 sidereal synodic cycle - yes - which is especially interesting where we are now - approaching Mars retrograde which will put the next 36 out at May 24, 2012. If if follows the pattern of the last retrograde period, then a high Feb 19-20 (14-15 degs progress) and 3/9 low (20-21 degs progress = Feb. 5, 2012). Also see that using helio you can closely replicate his synodic cits by adding 29 degs each time except for the last time as you approach 180 (add 34 degs). This approach doesn't agree with the synodic cits after 2/19-20. Also - his remark about the pentagon points has me intrigued - especially as he is mentioning it now when URAN is in early Aries. His cits match up with Uranus helio as follows:
    1/27 Uran 29:58 pis
    3/14 Uran 0:28 ari
    4/29 Uran 0:58 ari
    6/17 Uran 1:29 ari
    8/8 Uran 2:03 ari
    10/4 Uran 2:40 ari
    12/16 Uran 3:27 ari
    If you look at the outer (72), inner (36) and quarter points (18), it's quite amazing to see how closely they match these degrees. It's as if it is a vibrational energy of the number.?

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  13. Thanks Buffee! It will be interesting to see if we get a double top or bottom with the May 24 date along with the GP date which is of course May 31. I don't think Cowan uses geocentric astrology but that is an interesting observation. I'm not sure I'm following your point about Uranus? Is it that each 36° Mars equates to approx. 1/2° Uranus?

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  14. When I look at his Mars 36 synodic chart on that link, it shows, at the bottom, that he selected sidereal which is odd because I thought he only used heliocentric as well. All those Mars cits are 36 sidereal degrees apart. I'm going to reread the chapters on the synodic cycles and will post anything interesting.
    The thing I was noticing about URAN in connection with these cits (and Fig. 4-1 as he mentions), is that the actual degrees URAN is in on those cit dates (0:28, 0:58, 1:29, 2:03, 2:40, 3:27 are surprisingly similar to outer and inner pentagon points (23, 59, 131, 203, 239, 329). Maybe a coincidence but he specifically points out that the cits are related to the pentagon points and the Mars 36 synodic cycle isn't related to them. I hope I'm explaining this clearly - please let me know what you think. I'd like to expand the idea but am stumped as to what to do once URAN moves past Aries 3:47 (347) on 1/17. The next pentagon point is 5 so that would be 360 (1 trip around the points) plus 5 = 365 and would the equivalent "vibration" in Aries be 4:05 on 2/13-14? Or does this "pentagon point vibration" not work again until 5:00 aries? I will try to take a look back at URAN in early Aries in the late 1920s. A quick look tells me that on 9/5/1929, URAN helio 95 - just two days past the exact top!

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    1. Yes you're right! He clearly says not to use geocentric in the book, but on his website that is what was chosen.
      I see your point now about Uranus - that is wild! It must be coincidence, but... it does make you think.
      I think what he's saying about Fig. 4-1 is that the same pentagram that applies to Uranus also applies to Mars. The fact that his dates vary slightly is just the way he uses his software. Why don't you think Mars 36 is related to this?

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  15. ...and the next time URAN 9.50 is...May 23, 2013! yikes. :-)

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  16. yes, in looking again on his site at the BIDU post, he says " Market turns can be expected when this cycle arrives at the Great Pentagram in BOTH geocentric and heliocentric . " as for URAN, more and more I think it is not coincidence. That cit on 3/14 at 0:28 aries is related to 275 pentagon point (0:27.5 which is very close to 0:28). Using the pentagon pts, I'm compiling a list of geo and helio URAN cits for 2011 and 2012 and will see how they compare. Hope to have time today to do 1929 thru 1932 as well. Also, am still thinking that his note "Same pentagram points as Figure 4.1 showing 17-yr. cycle" on the chart titled "Cowan Great Pentagram Cycle" on his site is a big hint. The chart shows the Mars 36 cycle but we don't use the pentagram points to derive it. so...? Then URAN jumped out at me when I looked at what else was going on on those Mars 36 cit days. more later.

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    1. Great - thanks Buffee!

      I still don't see your point about Mars 36. My Mars calls have all been made using the GP and they are very close to his. And he says on his website he is using the Fig. 4.1 pentagram to derive the Mars cycle. Why do you think otherwise?

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  17. There are two Mars 36 cycles - there is the one where Mars hits the pentagram points (inner and outer) which uses Fig. 4.1. There is also the synodic Mars cycle which creates a cit every time Mars moves 36 degrees (sidereal). That one has it's origin back in 1966 maybe? not sure. but it doesn't rely on the pentagram points and is the one in the chart titled "Cowan Great Pentagram Cycle". have to read more.

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    1. That's because he sometimes uses different starting dates, which shifts the pentagram slightly. It is just an artifact of how he uses his software.

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  18. I know it seems that way but I think only for part of the cycle. Here's his Mars 36 cits for 2011:
    1/27 Mars helio 311 yes
    3/14 Mars helio 339 no
    4/29 Mars helio 8 several days from 5
    6/17 Mars helio 37 several days from 41
    8/8 Mars helio 66 no
    10/4 Mars helio 95 yes
    12/16 Mars helio 129 several days from 131

    If you use the other technique - the sidereal synodic 36 degrees movement of Mars - all these cits are exactly 36 degs apart.

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    1. Right, so then he used the GP geocentric for that chart, right?

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  19. oh gosh - ok using geo as you suggest - these are off just a tiny bit but it may be because I don't think they're geo/sidereal - look at these 2011 Mars cits:
    1/27 309 (near 311)
    3/14 345 (near 347)
    4/29 21 (near 23)
    6/17 57 (near 59)
    8/8 93 (near 95)
    10/4 129 (near 131)
    12/16 165 (near 167)

    all the outer and inner pentagram points (no quarter points) and in order! wow! ok so for Mars 36, use geo. thanks!

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    1. Thanks for clearing that up Buffee!

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  20. also - here's where I get confused - his mars synodic cycle is created by movement of 36 degrees - does that include both forward and backward movement (retrograde)? if you start with his last Mars 36 cit on 12/16 at 15 virgo geo (165 which is close to 167 and is probably exact if I was using sidereal) and you add 8 degrees (mars retrograde at 23 virgo on 1/24/2012) and then add 20 degs (mars direct at 3:41 vir on 4/14/2012) and then add 8 more degrees to total 36 you end up with a cit on 5/24/2012 at 11-12 virgo (161-162)- 5 points from the actual pentagram point. so that's the gray area for me - not sure how that works/plays out.

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  21. For 2012, the Mars 36 difference between these two types of calculation are:
    5/24 or 6/6
    8/4 or 8/12
    9/28 or 10/5
    11/16 or 11/23
    after the 5/24 to 6/6 time period has passed, we'll be able to see what worked...

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    1. What do you think about the 2/25/12 Geo Mars 72° in retrograde? Should we track that one too?

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  22. using inner and outer pentagram points and looking back at 2011 with both geo and helio cits as follows:
    GEO
    1/29 311
    3/16 347
    5/2 23
    6/19 59
    8/10 95
    10/7 131
    12/21 167

    HELIO:
    1/28 311
    3/26 347
    5/23 23
    7/25 59
    10/3 95
    12/20 131

    not sure what I'm looking at - notice how close the geo and helio hits on 311 are (1/29/2011 geo and 1/28/2011 helio) and then they gradually pull apart with helio lagging geo. In October they are aligned again but one pentagram point apart (geo 131 on 10/7 and helio 95 on 10/3). hmmmm. He says both geo and helio are important.

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    1. This is great! The geocentric harmonics are definitely picking up some major turns. Thanks so much Buffee!

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  23. yes definitely track that one- sorry I overlooked it. The entire degree (72) occurs 2/22 to 2/24?

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  24. 3-9 day rally in $gold helio mercury thru sag april 9-20

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