Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Marty, it's the Planets: The Armstrong 2.15-Year Cycle

Martin Armstrong is undoubtedly one of the greatest cycle theorists of our day. His predictions include the 1989 peak in the Nikkei market to the day, as well as the 1987 crash and 2007 top in the U.S. markets. Armstrong's most famous cycle is 8.6 years, or pi*1000 days (3141 days). In Armstrong's article The Business Cycle and the Future (1999), he states:
I began with the very basic naive approach of simply adding up all the financial panics between 1683 and 1907 and dividing 224 years by the number of panics being 26 yielding 8.6 years. Well, this didn’t seem to be very valid at first, but it did allow for a greater amount of data to be tested compared to merely 3 waves described by Kondratieff.
...The issue of intensity seemed to revolve around periods of 51.6 years, which was in reality a group of 6 individual business cycles of 8.6 years in length.
...The total number of days within an 8.6-year business cycle was 3141. In reality, the 8.6-year cycle was equal to p (Pi) * 1000
In Armstrong's article, he further subdivides the 8.6 year cycle into four 2.15 year intervals, and lists several dates going into the future. Let's find out what is going on with the planets on these dates.
The Economic Confidence Model in 2.15-year intervals
1998.55... 07/20/98
2000.7.... 09/13/00
2002.85... 11/08/02
2005.... 01/02/05
2007.15... 02/27/07
2009.3... 04/23/09
2011.45... 06/18/11
2013.6... 08/12/13
2015.75... 10/07/15
2017.9... 12/01/17
2020.05... 01/26/20
2022.2... 03/22/22
2024.35... 05/16/24
2026.5... 07/11/26
2028.65... 09/04/28

The Venus orbital cycle is 224.7 days. Seven orbits of Venus complete in 4.3 years, or two 2.15-year cycles (224.7*7/365.25 = 4.3). So each 2.15-year cycle traces 3.5 orbits of Venus. For the dates listed above, the position of Venus oscillates between the 2 points indicated in the following picture.
Venus positions at Armstrong 2.15-Year Cycles
Observe the position of Venus at each of the 2.15-year Armstrong Cycles listed above in the image below.


Each Armstrong 2.15-year cycle tracks 3.5 orbits of Venus. 

The Mars orbital cycle is 687 days, or 1.88 years. Every (slightly more than) 15 years, Mars makes 8 complete orbits (8x687/365.25 = 15.05). Each 7th of this 15.05-year period (or 2.15 years) reveals a consistent placement of Mars in the Zodiac, labeled 1 through 7 in the following picture. So, starting with position 1, Mars makes a complete revolution back to 1 plus an advancement to position 2 in the 2.15 year interval. The spacing is not even however because Mars travels faster when it is near Pisces/Aries, and slower near Virgo/Libra.

Mars Positions at Armstrong 2.15-Year Cycles
In the next image, the positions of the planets are shown for all 17 2.15-year cycle dates listed by Armstrong above. Notice the position of Mars in each case, as it corresponds to the image above.


Each Armstrong 2.15-year cycle tracks 8/7 of an orbit of Mars (in time not space).

 At the same time, Jupiter is making a similar dance. Jupiter's orbital cycle is 4,333 days, or 11.86 years. Every 11 2.15-year cycles, Jupiter makes 2 complete revolutions (11x2.15/11.86 = 2). The 11 positions of Jupiter for the 2.15-year cycles is shown below.

Jupiter Positions at Armstrong 2.15-Year Cycles

The chart of planets for each 2.15-year cycle is shown again, this time labeling the Jupiter positions as they correspond to the above picture.


Each Armstrong 2.15-year cycle tracks 2/11 of an orbit of Jupiter (in time).

In summary, each 2.15-year cycle tracks:
  • 3 1/2 orbits of Venus
  • 8/7 orbits of Mars
  • 2/11 orbits of Jupiter
We have already seen that Venus, Mars and Jupiter are all important movers of the stock market.

On a much larger scale, there are 1000 2.15-year cycles in an astrological age (2,150 years), and 12,000 cycles in the precession of the equinox (~25,800 years).

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

The 13-Year Cycle

I want to apologize first to my readers. There have been a few comments awaiting moderation for a long time. I only realized yesterday that I needed to check for these.  I was so happy to see them when I finally checked. I am going to address one of the comments now. The reader asks:
Question: Does Bradley explain in his book what causes the 13 Year Low Cycle also seen in major indexes like the $SPX? Is it another conjunction of some exact type?
A very good chart is here on Mr. Bussiere's site:
http://astrocycle.net/wordpress/index.php/category/2-stocks/1-sp-500/
Chart: http://astrocycle.net/SC/spx_M.png 
I want to encourage you to have a look at Bussiere's site. It contains a lot of excellent research into economic cycles. Many thanks to my reader for showing me this site. I have added it to my blog list on the right.

The 13-year cycle that is referred to in the above chart is in fact addressed by Cowan. He calls this cycle the "666-Week Beast" cycle, in reference of course to Revelation 13:
 16And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:
 17And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.
 18Here is wisdom. Let him that hath understanding count the number of the beast: for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six. 
The dates of the 13-year (or 666-week) cycle referred to by Bussiere are
  • September 1974 Low
  • 1987 High
  • 2000 High
  • September 2013 High?
Let's look at these one at a time, but first let's see what happened 13 years previously, in 1962.

--------1962 High--------

The markets peaked in March, 1962, just before a steep 3-month drop. I don't have a good image of this, but you can see a nice graph in this article.

In March that year, Mars and Venus came into a special configuration with the Earth. Mars, Venus and Earth were all near 72° harmonics, with Mars and Venus each about 144° from Earth, together forming what Cowan refers to as a Golden Triangle on the Great Pentagram.

March 1962 Beast Cycle
The Beast Cycle is triggered when the fastest planet, Venus, reaches its Golden Triangle Apex, which occurred on March 16, right at the S&P peak at around 71.2 before the crash.

--------1974 Low--------

In 1974 the markets made a double-bottom.

DJIA: 1974 Double Bottom
It is the 2nd bottom that we are interested in. In December 1974, Mars, Venus and Earth again formed a Golden Triangle.
December 1974 Beast Cycle
It is worth noting that the first scanning of a UPC barcode was made in June, 1974 (source: Wikipedia). Hmmmmm.

--------1987 High--------

The October 19, 1987 crash was known as Black Monday. The Dow dropped over 508 points, or 22.6% that day, the largest single day percentage drop in history.
DJIA: 1987 Crash
Mars, Venus and Earth had formed a Golden Triangle 2 days earlier.

October 1987 Beast Cycle
Looking at the series of Beast Cycles above, you can see that each one is rotated 72° clockwise from the previous. The overlay of the 3 above Golden Triangles produces a completed pentagram, which Cowan refers to as the Beast Triple Triangle.

--------2000 High--------

The Dot-Com bubble double peaked in March, 2000, as Mars conjoined Jupiter near an 18° harmonic. A smaller double peak formed shortly after in early July and early September.
Nasdaq: 2000 High
The Beast Cycle was triggered August 3rd, just between the 2 lesser double peaks.
August 2000 Beast Cycle

--------2013--------

The Beast Cycle of 2013 will trigger May 21.

May 2013 Beast Cycle

Thursday, November 3, 2011

The S&P 500 Natal Chart

In the previous post we saw how it was odd that Saturn's impact to the S&P has a greater influence from the pentagram formed at the 6/8/1988 Uranus-Saturn conjunction than the one identified by the NYSE natal chart. It was also curious that Cowan used the S&P for this analysis rather than Nasdaq or Dow which he typically uses. So on a hunch, I looked up the natal chart for the S&P 500, which started trading March 4, 1957.
3/4/1957: S&P 500 Natal Chart
Bingo! There is Uranus, marking the pentagram exactly 144° from the 1988 Uranus-Saturn conjunction. So once again, it is the natal chart which has set the sensitive points of the market.

It is interesting that prior to the S&P 500 there existed the "S&P 90" which began in 1923, with Uranus near another pentagram point identified above, further strengthening the ties of the S&P to this particular pentagram. I don't have the date, only the year, so this chart is approximate.
1923: S&P 90 Natal Chart (Approximate)
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