Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Uranus and the 17-Year Stock Market Cycle

The 17-year stock market cycle has long been recognized by cycle analysts. Each 17 year cycle manifests as alternating bull and sideways-to-bear cycles in the stock market. You can easily find discussions about this cycle, for example here:

Stocks and Commodities: The 18-Year Cycle

or here:

Long Term Stock Market Cycle: Where Are We Now?



But what is the cause? As Cowan explains, the orbital period of Uranus is 84.3 years, so Uranus passes by one of the 72° harmonic points approximately every 17 years. The cycle length varies a little because the planets travel an elliptical path and they speed up when they are nearer the Sun. The position of Uranus on the Zodiacal pentagram is shown in the following illustration:
Uranus 17-Year Cycle
Cowan examines this cycle in detail back to 1897. We are currently in a 17-year sideways-to-down cycle that began in the year 2000. Each sideways-to-down cycle contains a mid-cycle panic as Uranus crosses the 36° harmonic, as it did in October, 2007.
October 2007 Uranus 36° Harmonic

This resulted in the corresponding top in the markets, leading to the 2008 crash.

3 comments:

  1. Interesting - this may explain my 17.6 year stock market cycle

    http://www.17yearstockmarketcycle.com/2013/05/secular-bear-market-vs-cyclical-bull.html

    ReplyDelete
  2. great writeup. I ma also talking more about it at www.oxceltrading.com. I am more concerned about the last 3 years of this market cycle.

    ReplyDelete

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